Dog Park Walker

David Hann For Governor

2010-01-18T08:36:00.000-08:00

The Republican Party made a mistake in the past 10-years when they ran candidates who were good politicians that could speak to conservatives. Theses candidates were reasonably successful for a time, but when the chips were down these big government pragmatist Republicans such as George W. Bush, John McCain and Norm Coleman acted to nationalize the housing, banking and auto industry in the name of corporate bailouts.

Republicans everywhere need to change their candidate selection strategy. Instead of good politicians who can talk like conservatives, we need good conservatives who can talk like politicians.

Winnowing out those who talk a good game can be difficult, but one good indication is who shows up at conservative, rather than political events. In the six years since I’ve been back in Minnesota I have been heavily involved with conservatives causes regarding public education, global warming and energy issues, and the plight of conservative students on campus. I have always been impressed to know that State Senator David Hann has stood with me.

I have seen Sen. Hann at a number of events where he is the only elected official to be found. I have been surprised to be sitting across the table from the Senator at an intimate strategy session where he sought us out. I have even encountered Sen. Hann at important gatherings out of state where only a handful of Minnesotans are present. There are a number of campus issues that I don’t even bother to bring up with elected officials (they are simply too complex to quickly explain), but with Sen. Hann, he is already familiar, knowledgeable, and seeks out more information on those issues when he knows you are in that environment. They say 90% of success is just showing up, and for conservatives, they can count on Sen. Hann to be there for them.

Just “being” a conservative is not enough to win elections. You have to be able to communicate and speak to Minnesotans. I have much respect for Rep. Tom Emmer; if you are a conservative and hear one of his fiery speeches you will be energized, pumped up, and ready to go win one for the Gipper! Sen. Hann does not have Rep. Emmer’s passion and fire. But when a moderate Minnesotan hears Sen. Hann speak, they will see and hear a thoughtful, intelligent, calm demeanor that appeals to their core values. His speaking style reminds me of Gov. Pawlenty’s ability to speak with calm authority to all Minnesotans.

It is fair to describe Sen. Hann’s look and demeanor as moderate. More importantly, he is a conservative first through his deeds, his actions, his knowledge, and not just his words. He is exactly the kind of candidate Republicans need to elect. And I am proud to endorse and promote his candidacy.

2008 NFL Draft - Billi vs. Chilli Part 3

2008-09-20T14:58:00.000-07:00

Since 2006 I've been tracking my draft vs. the actual Vikings draft. As last year, I'm late to the table as the 3rd game of the season starts tomorrow. I will do my best to ignore information know after the draft and give my honest evaluations of my roster's needs. First we need to compare our respective rosters - and I also have the option to accept trades the Vikings actually made, or reject them (so long as I own the pieces that were given up). I considered adjusting my draft position based on projected results (my team does not have AP, my team would have more losses) but I'm not sure how to do this without terribly skewing the results.

My Roster vs Actual Roster by Position

QB

Brady Quinn vs. Tarvarious Jackson

Brady threw 8 passes last year and Jackson played 12 games. Yes I know now that Chilli benches T-Jack after week 2, but I never liked him - see any previous post on Vikings. I will not claim that Quinn would have been much better than Jackson in his rookie year. I'm not a fan of playing rooking QB's, so he may have only thrown 8 passes on my team. But the fact remains, Quinn is still a prospect and T-Jack never was.

I also wasted a 3rd round pick in 2006 on Omar Jacobs who was gone before the 2006 training camp ended. Chilli wasted a 6th rounder by letting the Cheifs grab Bobby Thigpen on waivers.

Advantage - Me. I have a prospect, Chilli has crap and let the better QB (Thigpen) walk for nothing.

RB/FB

Michael Bush vs. Adrian Peterson
AP was the best offensive player in the league last year. Bush didn't play a snap in 2007. Bush had a nice game in week two of 2008, but I don't know that. What I know is that I have a good college running back coming off a terrible leg injury. I'm hoping he's an adequate backup to Chester Taylor. Taylor is AP's backup, so...

Advantage Chilli - big time

WR/TE
My Roster - WR Maurice Stovall, WR Dwayne Jarret, TE Ben Petrick
Chili's roster - WR Sidney Rice, WR Aundrae Allison, WR Chandler Wilson

Stovall is a 3rd year vet who has produced very little in Tampa. He played in 5 games and only had 10 receptions in '07. This year he is 4th on the Bucs depth chart. Jarret played in only 4 games for Carolina in his rookie season and had 6 receptions. This year he is 4th on the depth chart. Patrick played 5 games for the Cardinals in his rookie season and is the backup TE this year.

Rice played 11 games his rookie season for the Vikes and outperformed everyone with 31 receptions. He is currently second on the Vikes depth chart. Allison had 5 receptions in 8 games last year and is 5th on the Vikes depth chart. Wilson was cut during training camp.

Woe is us, both groups are pretty poor. I need Jarret to step up and I have a decent TE in Patrick. Rice is the best player of the group, but still unproven while Allison and Stovall are just roster filler at this point.

Advantage - Chilli

O-Line

My Roster - T Winston Justice, C Greg Eslinger, G Josh Beekman
Chilli Roster - T Ryan Cook, G Artis Hicks

Justice has been the back up T in Philly the past couple of years, but they have pro-bowlers at both positions. He is well known for a disasterous start against the Giants last year when 8 sacks were given up, most on his watch. In my system, he would have played RT and thus avoided that Sportscenter moment. He is well liked, still developping, and a better RT than any option on the Vikes current roster. Eslinger is with his third team in three years serving on the Houston practice team. Beekman is presently the primary backup G in Chicago.

Hicks lost his starting job in game 3 last year and is improbably the starting LT while McKinney is suspended. Cook is the starting RT, and not highly regarded. He's pretty terrible.

Advantage Me - Justice and Beekman provide real starting options. Beekman is a backup now, but has been starting in Chicago due to injuries to the starters. Both have long term potential. Justice would most certainly be my starting RT, Beekman would probably backup Herrera.

D-Line
My Roster - DE Mark Anderson
Chilli Roster - DE Ray Edwards, DE Brian Robison

Anderson is the primary backup DE for a very deep Bears line. He had 12 sacks his rookie season and followed up with 5 in year two as a backup. Considered a top notch pass rusher, probably a starter on most teams - would definitely start on my team.

Edwards had 3 sacks his rookie season, and 5 last year as a starter. Edwards beat out Erasmus James for a starting position last year and with Udeze recovering from cancer is starting this year. Robison is the primary backup DE this year and had 4.5 sacks in his rookie season as the 2nd backup.

Advantage Me - Anderson is far and away the best DE. Edwards is probably overmatched as a starter but will get his chance this season. Anderson allows me to consider other options than trading for Jared Allen.

LB
My Roster - ILB Abdul Hodge, ILB Brandon Siler
Chilli Roster - OLB Chad Greenway, OLB Rufus Alexander

Hodge had a rough rookie season and spent 2007 on the IR after surgeries on both knees. He now resides on Cinci's practice squad. Siler was largely a special teams player for the Chargers during his rookie season and appears to be doing the same this year.

Greenway is a very solid OLB starter for the Vikes who might end up being great. Alexander was cut by the Vikings after training camp.

Advantage Chilli - I have a serious hole in the LB corps.

DB's
My Roster - CB Ashton Youboty, CB Kenny Scott, CB Anthony Arline
Chilli Roster - CB Cedric Griffen, CB Marcus McCauley

Youboty played special teams for the Bills during his rookie season and became the nickel back last year. He continues as the nickel back this year and continues to show upside. 7th round picks Scott and Arline never reported to training camp.

Griffen has been starting at CB the past two years, but to mixed results. McCauley has struggled to hold down the nickel spot for the Vikings.

Advantage - Chilli. Youboty and Griffen are a wash, but McCauley is useful as a 3 or 4th CB.

Before the draft I know DE Udeze will miss the year recovering from cancer. T McKinnie's arrest happened before the draft - I figure he'll miss 2-4 games (ended up being four games).

So here are my team needs:

QB - I could use a backup.
RB - I'm deep, but I don't have a star.
WR - I'm weak but deep. An elite WR or TE would be good.
OL - McKinnie's situation is a problem. It may be time to cut him...
DL - I need depth after losing Udeze.
LB - I really need another solid starting LB.
CB - I could also use a very good CB.

5 Reasons Why Vikings Will Fall Short in '08

2008-09-08T16:49:00.000-07:00

I'm going to try to get three Viking's posts out before the season gets too old. This is my current predictions. The second will by the continuation of my draft vs. Chili's draft. And finally a roster comparison, the 3rd annual one, of my roster vs. Chili's. But for now, why the Viking's aren't all that good.

1 - Tarvaris Jackson is not a good QB

I don't mean T-Jack isn't good now, everyone knows that. I mean T-Jack will never be a good QB. He will single-handedly give away winnable games this year and do very little to scare the secondary away from run defense. Until the Vikings realize this, they will continue to miss the play offs.

Caveat (I'll be proved wrong if...) I'm not wrong.

2 - The Receiving corp isn't much better

Yeah, Bernard Berrian is an upgrade as he provides a legitimate number two receiver to the roster. The problem is, that top spot is still unfilled. And what's the old cliche, a tight end is a young QB's best friend? Well, the Vikes have a young QB, but I'm pretty sure Visanthe Shiancoe has no best friends. This void at TE will kill the Vikes.

Caveat - Sidney Rice has real potential. If he has a breakout year as a legit #1 reciever - the playoffs could be reached.

3 - The O-Line is a mess

Artis Hicks will start at LT for the first 4 games while Bryant McKinney serves a 4 - game suspension. Artis Hicks lost his job as starting right guard to Anthony Herrera early last year for a reason - the reason is NOT that Herrera is talented. Herrera could start on 2, maybe three teams - the Vikings are one of them. RT is also suspect with Ryan Cook. Chili reached by spending a 2nd round pick on him two years ago - when a 7th would have done the job. Cook is too slow and his mistakes are masked by extra blockers and that T-Jack is mobile and the right hander has a front row view to Cook's mistakes. Birk is still good, but not the Pro-Bowler he once was. Hutch is awesome, but that is all.

Caveat - T-Jack's mobility and the gameplan offset the damage till McKinney comes back in week 5.

4 - The running game is only as good as AP's health.

Chester Taylor is a good back, and the Vikes can run with him as the primary option, but he's no AP. He'll get yards, but he won't change games. AP has missed significant time in every season since he was a freshman at Oklahoma. I wish him health, but AP had better hope for change.

Caveat - AP stays healthy

5 - Can the D-Line meet expectations?

The D-Line will be very good, but expectations have them leading the league in sacks and masking a mediocre secondary. They essentially have to be the best line in the league, or at least rival the Giant's performance of last year. Here's the thing, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams will always be double teamed. Pat Williams can push a single defender back, but he's not getting around anyone. This leaves it to Ray Edwards to make plays one-on-one. In short, the difference between a good line and a great line is whether Ray Edwards can make plays in isolation. This is an open question.

Caveat - Ray Edwards has 10+ sacks.

Prediction - 8-8

Republican Dirty Tricks

2008-06-27T11:03:00.000-07:00

Republicans Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale teamed up to deal a decisive blow for the vast right wing conspiracy last night by swapping draft picks with the Memphis Grizzlies and thus ending the Gay-Love era before it could really start. This victory for family values means that Memphis merchandise sales will plummet as every equal sign and rainbow will not be plastered over with a Grizzly logo. A sad day for egalitarian love and bumper sticker makers everywhere.

Feeling Out the Second Round

2008-06-26T16:35:00.000-07:00

Right now the Bulls are on the clock, but in a few hours the Wolves will have two early second round picks - the 1st and the 4th of the Second Round. Here are some players that might be available...

C Roy Hibbert - His stock value has rebounded, but not to the lofty levels he was at last year. Had he skipped his senior season Hibbert would have been taken 7th by Minny or 10th by Sacremento. He'll likely go 12-20 and the Wolves will have to trade both 2nd round picks to move up and grab him if he's not gone to Sacramento at 12.

SG Chris Douglas-Roberts - He may slip to the second round, but I could see him going late teens to Washington. I find it unbelievable that Boston would let him slip out of the 1st round as he is the ideal replacement for Ray Allen. But if he does, the Wolves should pounce. Glut of SG be damned, this one can score AND play defense.

PF Serge Ibaka - He's a virtual lock for the second round after his agent said he will be playing in Europe next year, but he's a first round talent and Seattle at 32 won't let him slide. He's a real talent but does need time to fill out and refine his skills, so a few years in Europe will be good.

PF Joey Dorsey - Will probably be available with either pick, undersized, but has the reach and the muscle to play down low. Not an offensive player, but may be the next coming of Ben Wallace (the good afro version, not the crappy dreadlocked one).

C DeVon Hardin - Has legitimate size and athleticism (unlike Richards) and a poor offensive game. But no problem, AlJeff can score and this guy can play D and rebound while allowing AlJeff to be the 4.

SF Bill Walker - may not fall past Detroit, but if he has kicked his injuries he could be the answer at the 3, or the next version of Gerald Green. At least he won't go 15th.

C Nathan Jawaii - The Aussie will stay down under for a few years developping his game, but will be a beast when he enters the league.

SF Nic Batum - Could go as high as 13 to Portland, or could drop like a rock based on his heart condition and low production levels. Might be something after a few years in Europe.

If the Wolves want help now - CDR, Dorsey and Hardin are the choices. If sheer talent is the priority then go with Ibaka, CDR and Walker.

Final Pre-Draft Thoughts -UPDATED ALREADY!

2008-06-26T11:51:00.000-07:00

*This year's draft is up in the air. It starts at the top where Chicago will likely take Rose, but that's not 100%. And then there is the drama that is Miami, the second pick, Beasley and Mayo. Here's hoping the Wolves exit the theater with Beasley, but who knows!

*So far three draft picks have changed hands. The #27 was sold by New Orleans to Portland. Charlotte traded a future "protected" pick (not sure how protected) to Denver for this year's #20, and Indiana acquired pick #17 from Toronto in the Ford/O'Neal trade. So essentially my mock is dead and believe there will be at least two more deals before the day is done.

*Deal #1 revolves around Portland. Fact is they have too many quality players on the roster (Martel, Outlaw), coming to the Roster (Rudy Fernandez and Oden), too many draft picks (13, 27, 33, 36, 55), are soft at SF, and weak at PG (Blake, Jack, Rodriquez). They are also flush with cash. I could see them using cash, the picks, and one of their many players to grab Memphis' pick at #5 - and grabbing Russell Westbrook to be the future PG. I could also see a deal with the Wolves that centers around Outlaw, and as many as 4 of their picks for the #3. Gallinari is a potential target, as is an established PG or SF.

*Deal #2 revolves around the Miami Heat. Can they trade the #2 pick and get the goods they want? Apparently, the #5, PG Kyle Lowry and SG Mike Miller aren't enough to move. Of course at 5, they could lose out on Mayo and Bayless. Miami is holding out for PG Mike Conley, who the Griz won't move. If I was Riley, and liked both Mayo and Bayless - I'd make the trade for Lowry et al. You get the point you need, and nice scorer in Miller, and one of your boys (Bayless) will drop to 5, but even better if you take a real big man like Love or Lopez and bench Blount. Here is my hunch, Riley is smitten with Mayo and will take him no matter what. Bayless is a smokescreen to make others think Miami has other options they like - but they don't.

If this is the case, MN is doing the right thing by sticking with Mayo at 3 and/or being very open to trades from the Knicks or Clips who badly want Mayo. This effectively kills any chance Seattle or Memphis have of jumping the Wolves for Beasley unless they give away a blue chip player. More and more I believe MN will stick it to Miami and force them to draft Mayo at 2 or they will make a nominal face saving trade - such as giving up Houston's second round pick in next year's draft (received in the Green/Snyder trade) to swap places.

*Deal #3 involves the Wolves. First off, they are doing the right thing by not trading before the first two picks - if Beasley is at 3 you take him unless you are bowled over with picks and players (Memphis gives up Conley and the 5 or Portland gives up Oden or Roy type of offer). But if Miami does take Beasley at 2, or trades to someone who does - the Wolves should trade down. The Knicks at 6 are at a nice spot, but have little other than future picks to offer - not a great partner. I like the Clippers offer of the #7, the top-10 protected Wolves pick owed the Clips from the Jaric trade, and a top-10 protected pick from the Clips next year. That would be a nice haul and the Wolves could choose from Westbrook, Love, Alexander, or Lopez. All of which are deals or make sense at 7, but not at 3.

*Another nice idea I heard was a three way with Golden State and Milwaukee. Milwaukee would land the 3, Golden State would get Jianlian, and MN walks away with the #8, the #14, and Brandon Wright (might also have to give up one or both second round picks). This deal is better than the Clips offer, but more difficult to pull off.

*The last big idea out there is the Wolves going for broke and trading Al Jefferson to the Bulls for the #1 pick. I love this idea! AlJeff is good at two things, scoring and rebounding. And because he's good at two things instead of just one, he's the best player on the Wolves, but he's not the kind of guy you can build around. The Wolves desperately need guys that are good at two or three things - such as defense, passing, scoring and rebounding. Beasley and Rose are those kind of players, and you could get both for Al Jeff and giving Miami their protected 1st rounder from the Blount trade back. But this won't happen, too bad.

*I predict an exciting night for the Wolves. They will either walk away with Beasley or a boatload of talent from trading the #3 pick. Either way, this team will be all the more exciting to follow tomorrow morning.
-----------------------

SHEESH! I didn't have this thing out 15 minutes before two of my scenarios blew up!

*First, the Clippers and Sonics are swapping #4 and #7 with the Sonics getting a protected pick for next year. But ESPN reports that the deal is off if the Wolves pick Mayo at #3 - which probably won't happen! So Seattle took the initiative away from the Wolves by locking up a contingent deal with the Clips. This is a black mark against McHale.

*The next big trade is New Jersey Sending Richard Jefferson to the Bucks for Yi and Simmons. No picks exchanged, but it blows away my three way with Golden State possibility. I love the Deal for the Bucks. Simmons was overrated and expensive while Yi won't amount to anything. The Bucks keep their 8th pick, probably too late to get Westbrook to be the PG, but they now have the luxory of taking the best player available - my guess is Bayless. Their starting 5 is set and impressive -
PG Mo Williams - 17.2 PPG 6.3 Assts
SG Michael Redd - 22.7 PPG 4.3 RBD, 3.4 Assts
SF Richard Jefferson - 22.6 PPG, 4.2 RBD, 3.1 Assts
PF Charlie Villenuva - 11.7 PPG, 6.1 RBD
C Andrew Bogut - 14.3 PPG, 9.8 RBD

They could take Bayless, have him replace Redd, and try trading Redd... easier said than done with his contract.

I don't know if this team can mesh as it will require Mo Williams to pass more and shoot less - and I have no idea about the defensive toughness of this group - but Skiles will certainly instill some. But I like this team much better with Jefferson than with Yi. Other than dumping about $10million, I don't get this deal for NJ - unless it is a "get young pieces now so when we move to Brooklyn and sign LeBron he'll have decent support in Devin Harris and Yi". This deal might make sense in NJ 3 years from now. But in the mean time NJ goes from playoff contender to officially rebuilding and MKE becomes a contender immediately.

Updated NBA Mock Draft

2008-06-17T12:37:00.001-07:00

My 14th and 20th pick in the draft decided to go back to school, so here is the updated version:

1 - Chicago: PG Derrick Rose
It would make sense to take Beasley, but I get the feeling they lost faith in Hinrich. Look for a Hinrich/Gooden trade to Inidana for Jermaine O'Neal and his awful contract. I could also see the Bulls trading Hinrich or Gordon to the Clips for the 7th pick and a bad contract (Cutino Mobley).

2 - Miami: SG OJ Mayo
I believe the hype. I think Riley is nuts, but he's going to take OJ over Beasley. I for one liked the Marion/Beasley/Wade trio with Boozer replacing Marion next year. Add a pass first point guard and this team is on. Instead you'll have two scorers in the backcourt and a lousy front court. This would be greatest NCAA tournament team ever.

3 - Minnesota: F Mike Beasley
The recent measurements had him undersized for a 4, but that's okay when Al Jefferson is your 4. Essentially Minnesota gets Carmelo Anthony without the tats. I'll take it! If OJ is available here as sanity demands but Riley rejects - take Mayo and trade Foye (trade Foye anyway, but that's another post).

4 - Seattle: PG Jerryd Bayless
Everyone has Bayless here, but I don't believe it. Yes the Sonics need a PG, but I don't believe that the Sonics believe in Bayless. I predict trade for a decent PG or a C.

5 - Memphis: PF Anthony Randolph
ESPN claims they like Love, but I see them going more athletic to keep up with Conley and Gay. They also have Marc Gasol coming over, so this team could be set in a year or two once they gel.

6 - New York: PG Russel Westbrook
But they really want Bayless. I could see Seattle making the swap and then taking Brook Lopez here.

7 - LA Clips: SG Erik Gordon
I can also see the Clips trading for veteran help or taking SF Galinari to replace Maggete.

8 - Milwaukee: SF Joe Alexander
I had the Italian here, but they wise up and take Alexander. Might be a reach, but this works better for the Bucks.

9 - Charlotte: C Kevin Love
Because he's better than Brook Lopez.

10 - New Jersey: C Brooke Lopez
The Nets beg to differ.

11 - Indiana: PG DJ Augustine
I previously had DeAndre Jordan here, but it seems that he's finally been exposed.

12 - Sacramento: SF Danilo Galinari
No PG's to choose from and Galinari is a value at 12.

13 - Portland: SG Nic Batum
They can leave the 6'8" Frenchy in France and roll with their loaded roster.

14 - Golden State: PF Darrel Arthur
They lost out on Chase dropping out of the draft, but they get an awesome talent in Arther who will be huge down the road.

15 - Phoenix: SF Brandon Rush
He's ready to play now, but they'll probably trade this pick.

16 - Philadelphia: C Mareese Speights
He's big and Philly needs big - but might go back to school.

17 - Toronto: SF Donte Green
If your like me and don't believe in Andrea, this is a good pick.

18 - Washington: C Robin Lopez
I was oringinally thinking hometown fav Hibbert, but he can't run with the Wiz.

19 - Cleveland: C Kosta Koufos
He's from Ohio.

20 - Denver: C DeAndre Jordan
Not a bad risk pick to eventually replace Camby.

21 - New Jersey: C Roy Hibbert
They need bigs... now they have one.

22 - Orlando: PF JJ Hickson
Allows Orlando to play big, but they still need a decent PG.

23 - Utah: SG Bill Walker
Could also play the 3 when Boozer walks.

24 - Seattle: PF Serge Ibaka
Everyone thinks they'll take a big foreigner and stash him. I agree.

25 - Houston: C Javale McGee
Can Mutumbo go another year? Can Yao get through a whole season?

26 - San Antonio: PF Alexis Ajinca
Could actually become a player in the future, but wouldn't they rather have Ryan Gomes?

27 - New Orleans: SG Chris Douglas Roberts
A nice wing man to replace Mo Pete.

28 - Memphis: C Nathan Jawai
The Aussie Center adds much needed depth to the front court in a few years.

29 - Detroit: PF Jason Thompson
Small school, good defender, and Ben Wallace is going away soon.

30 - Boston: PG Mario Chalmers
Because Sam Cassel has to go.

2nd Round - 4 picks only

31 - Minnesota: PF Joey Dorsey
Small, but a beast in the blocks. Pairs up nicely with AlJeff.

32 - Seattle: PG George Hill
He's from a small school but has been burning up the workouts. Provides a nice backup to Bayless or option to move Bayless to SG.

33 - Portland: C Omer Asik
All about the secret stash - can be left overseas to develop.

34 - Minnesota: C Devon Hardin
A defensive specialist with freakish size and a 4.0 student...

Blowing it Up! T-Wolves Style

2008-06-15T18:55:00.000-07:00

Watching the NBA Playoffs has been illuminating. They have taught me that the Wolves are no where near competing at that level. The Wolves are lacking:

- A player you can trust at both ends of the court.

- Defense of any sort.

- A guy with the court vision and unselfishness to make others better.

The Wolves are all one-dimensional, selfish, and don't play D. The only legit big man (AlJeff) has acknowledged his poor defense, and outside of Jaric (who should never play), no one plays perimeter D. Brewer offers some hope since he was a tenacious NCAA defender, but his lack of minutes, disorientation, and awful shot kept him on the bench and unproven (does the kid lack the mental toughness to play or is this a case of awful coaching?).

Regarding court vision, this usually comes from the point guard or the best player. KG and Kobe are two such non-PG's who have the vision and ability to get their teammates easy shots. AlJeff is the best player, but dishing and creating for others are not part of his game. Sebastion Telfair was good enough to displace Marko Jaric, but Telfair is still widely considered one of the worst point guards in the league. Foye didn't get enough reps at the point due to injury, and in some cases I'd be willing to role with his development. However, I think he's a shoot first guy and evolving into a creator will be a very tall order.

So blow it up! Blow it all up!

#1 Announce to the world that you believe there are three quality players in this draft - Beasley, Mayo and Rose - and that you will be taking who ever is left at 3. This will stop Miami from monkeying around and increase the odds of landing Beasley. If Miami wants Mayo, they have to take him at 2.

#2 Offer a trade of Randy Foye and Antoine Walker to the Clippers for the 7th Pick, the Wolves top-10 protected pick, Cutino Mobley (bad contract) and Dan Dickau (needed $700k to make it work). The Clips make this trade to get a scoring 2 to replace Maggette (Thornton grabs the 3 spot), also Foye is a combo guard who can play the point backing up an ailing Shaun Livingston, and they dump their bad Mobley contract for Walker's expiring contract (who might actually provide Mobley like production at the 3 if they make a playoff push).
Potential Spoiler: Clips sign Gilbert Arenas or Knicks take Westbrook.

The Wolves do this to get back their at-risk draft pick and pair Mobley with Hudson and Madsen creating $18M of relief after the 09/10 season. The main reason they make this trade is to grab UCLA PG Russel Westbrook - a highly athletic, pass first, intense defender. Westbrook immediately upgrades the perimeter defense, give the Wolves the option to run, and has shown the ability to learn and grow into the position. Yes, he'll need time to develop, but that only helps the Wolves get good draft picks until the team is ready to compete in 2010.

#3 Trade the 1st and 4th second round picks to Phoenix for the 15th pick. Phoenix is already $12M above the salary cap before adding a mandatory 1st round contract. They could use the two early second rounders to get players overseas who won't need to be paid and can develop for the post Nash/Shaq era. Maybe Phoenix can get someone at 15 to help next year, but I doubt it. Brandon Rush would be the best bet, but how does he add depth to a team with Barbosa, Hill, Bell and Diaw at those positions?

How the Wolves use this pick depends on who they get at 3. If as expected they get Mayo, they take SF Bill Walker (unless Joe Alexander or Galinari fall this far) to be the offensive counterpart to Brewer at the 3. Walker becomes the scoring catalyst 6th man. If the Wolves get Beasley, they take Chris Douglas-Roberts. The sweet shooting, intense defending shooting guard (think Rip Hamilton) gives the Wolves the option of playing small with Beasley at the 4 or being the 6th man behind Brewer.

#4 Trade Ryan Gomes to San Antonio for the 26th pick. San Antonio does this because they get a quality guy to tag team with an aging Bowen to help right now.

#5 Trade Rashad McCants to New Orleans for the 27th pick. NO gets a SG that can actually score and is cheaper and better than Mo Pete or Pargo. Rashad is also ready to contribute now.

#6 Option A - trade both new picks to Washington for the 18th pick and take C Robin Lopez. Lopez is the defense first big man who matches nicely with Al. Robin is used to accommodating
the scoring big and allows AlJeff the easier defensive assignment.

Option B - Not everyone believes Lopez is a legit NBA defender, so instead keep #26 and #27 and use one on PF Joey Dorsey - the defensive and rebounding machine in the mold of Ben Wallace, and the other pick on a guy who has fallen too far (many possibilities, but CDR, Hibbert, Walker, Nic Batum, Brandon Rush or JJ Hickson could fall down to here.) Here the Wolves grab a gritty guy in Dorsey and some value while trusting in 2009 draft position to grab BJ Mullen or Hasheem Thabeet as true centers.

New Look Wolves - #3 Pick is OJ Mayo - (Most likely scenario)

Depth Chart -
PG - Russel Westbrook (Sebastion Telfair)
SG - OJ Mayo (Cutino Mobley)
SF - Corey Brewer (Bill Walker)
OPTION A
PF - Al Jefferson (Craig Smith)
C - Robin Lopez (Chris Richard)
OPTION B
PF - Joey Dorsey (JJ Hickson?)
C - Al Jefferson (Chris Richard)

Scrubs: Jaric, Buckner, Madsen, Dickau, (Smith)

Look at the front court. This could be the meanest perimeter defense in the league - yes, even as good as Detroit's. Westbrook and Brewer already have defensive reps, but what people forget is that Mayo shut down Bayless (8pts, 3 asts, 6 turn overs/ 10 pts, 2 asts, 3 to's) and Rose (9pts, 4 asts, 5 to's) head to head. He can cover and stop anyone. The backcourt is also much better with AlJeff taking the easy assignment and Lopez or Dorsey covering the scoring threat.

Yes, only AlJeff and Mayo can really score - but with Walker off the bench, Brewer and Westbrook improving their shots, and early draft picks in 2009 and 2010 - I like the potential. Start with D, then work on the jump shots.

AlJeff makes this option difficult, but this team could run. You could do the SSOL (seven seconds or less) offense with lock down D. At least the team would be exciting while they play brutal defense and tire out their opponents.

New Look Wolves - #3 Pick is Beasley

You could go big or small

Big lineup:

PG - Russel Westbrook 6'4"
SG - Corey Brewer 6'8"
SF - Mike Beasley 6'8"
PF - Al Jefferson 6'10"
C - Robin Lopez 7'0"
6th man - CDR 6'6"

Small lineup:
PG - Russel Westbrook 6'4"
SG - Chris Douglas-Roberts 6'6"
SF - Corey Brewer 6'8"
PF - Mike Beasley 6'8"
C - Al Jefferson 6'10"
6th man - Lopez or Dorsey

The advantage here is you have three legitimate scores in AlJeff, Beasley and CDR, and they all have distinct scoring styles - in the low blocks, from anywhere, and a sweet shot. This team with Westbrook and Brewer developing and Beasley being convinced to be a solid defender, could be the starting lineup for years to come.

NBA Mock Draft 2

2008-06-12T18:14:00.001-07:00

There will be at least one more mock since underclassmen who haven't hired an agent can back out by Tuesday. I'm going with a zero trade rule to do this mock, but I will make note where a team is reaching or mismatched with their pick - and thus likely to trade.

1 - Chicago: PG Derrick Rose
It would make sense to take Beasley, but I get the feeling they lost faith in Hinrich. Look for a Hinrich/Gooden trade to Inidana for Jermaine O'Neal and his awful contract. I could also see the Bulls trading Hinrich or Gordon to the Clips for the 7th pick and a bad contract (Cutino Mobley).

2 - Miami: SG OJ Mayo
I believe the hype. I think Riley is nuts, but he's going to take OJ over Beasley. I for one liked the Marion/Beasley/Wade trio with Boozer replacing Marion next year. Add a pass first point guard and this team is on. Instead you'll have two scorers in the backcourt and a lousy front court. This would be greatest NCAA tournament team ever.

3 - Minnesota: F Mike Beasley
The recent measurements had him undersized for a 4, but that's okay when Al Jefferson is your 4. Essentially Minnesota gets Carmelo Anthony without the tats. I'll take it! If OJ is available here as sanity demands but Riley rejects - take Mayo and trade Foye (trade Foye anyway, but that's another post).

4 - Seattle: PG Jerryd Bayless
Everyone has Bayless here, but I don't believe it. Yes the Sonics need a PG, but I don't believe that the Sonics believe in Bayless. I predict trade for a decent PG or a C.

5 - Memphis: PF Anthony Randolph
ESPN claims they like Love, but I see them going more athletic to keep up with Conley and Gay. They also have Marc Gasol coming over, so this team could be set in a year or two once they gel.

6 - New York: PG Russel Westbrook
But they really want Bayless. I could see Seattle making the swap and then taking Brook Lopez here.

7 - LA Clips: SG Erik Gordon
I can also see the Clips trading for veteran help or taking SF Galinari to replace Maggete.

8 - Milwaukee: SF Danilo Galinari
Ugh, the thought of two skinny foreigners manning the 3 is gross, and probably not successful. This team needs to make lots of trades.

9 - Charlotte: C Kevin Love
Because he's better than Brook Lopez.

10 - New Jersey: C Brooke Lopez
The Nets beg to differ.

11 - Indiana: C DeAndre Jordan
They will trade O'Neal and need a center. If they don't land Hinrich they'll consider Augustine.

12 - Sacramento: PG DJ Augustine
Otherwise they have to roll with Beno-thanks.

13 - Portland: SG Nic Batum
They can leave the 6'8" Frenchy in France and roll with their loaded roster.

14 - Golden State: SG Chase Budinger
With Baron getting old and making noise, they can move Monta to PG and role with Chase.

15 - Phoenix: PF Darrel Arthur
The Suns get real value in a PF who slipped this far and will pair up very well with Amare post-Shaq... too bad they'll trade this pick.

16 - Philadelphia: C Mareese Speights
He's big and Philly needs big - but might go back to school.

17 - Toronto: SF Joe Alexander
Bargnani isn't getting it done at the 3, Alexander provides an option and a bargain at this point.

18 - Washington: C Robin Lopez
I was oringinally thinking hometown fav Hibbert, but he can't run with the Wiz.

19 - Cleveland: SF Donte Green
Very athletic complement to LeBron.

20 - Denver: PG Ty Lawson
If he comes out...

21 - New Jersey: C Roy Hibbert
They need bigs... not they have two legit 7 footers.

22 - Orlando: PF JJ Hickson
Allows Orlando to play big, but they still need a decent PG.

23 - Utah: SG Bill Walker
Could also play the 3 when Boozer walks.

24 - Seattle: C Kosta Koufos
They need a Center, but probably won't get the answer here.

25 - Houston: C Javale McGee
Can Mutumbo go another year? Can Yao get through a whole season?

26 - San Antonio: C Alexis Ajinca
Could actually become a player in the future, but wouldn't they rather have Ryan Gomes?

27 - New Orleans: SG/SF Brandon Rush
Pairs nicely with Jayhawk Julian Wright, but maybe they'd rather have McCants?

28 - Memphis: SG Chris Douglas-Roberts
How did he fall this far? Expect someone to move up to around 20 to get him.

29 - Detroit: PF Jason Thompson
Small school, good defender, and Ben Wallace is going away soon.

30 - Boston: PG Mario Chalmers
Because Sam Cassel has to go.

2nd Round - 4 picks only

31 - Minnesota: PF Joey Dorsey
Small, but a beast in the blocks. Pairs up nicely with AlJeff.

32 - Seattle: PF Serge Ibaka
A guy who can be stashed, and he's big.

33 - Portland: PF Nathan Jawai
All about the secret stash - can be left overseas to develop.

34 - Minnesota: C Omer Asik
This is not a favorite of mine, just makes the most sense with what's left.

Working the Draft - Does the Draft Work?

2008-05-08T06:39:00.000-07:00

The NBA draft lottery is yet to happen, but the T-Wolves will most assuredly land a top 5 pick. This got me to thinking, how likely will they get an impact player? There have been some real stinkers in the past and I thought an analysis would be interesting. To follow are the top 5 picks from every draft going back to 1995 with a 1-5 grade. 5 = Likely hall of Famer (Shaq), 4 = Usual All-star, questionable hall of famer (Pau Gasol), 3 = Solid starter, rarely an All-star (Shane Battier), 2 = Questionable starter, good bench player (Wally Sczerbiak), 1 = Bust, shaky bench player at best (Gerald Green). I will average out each pick and also note the best players from a draft no matter where they were taken.

Year - (Year Average) - Best player from draft
Draft Position - Name - Grade

1995 - (3.4) - Kevin Garnett

1 - Joe Smith (2)
2 - Antonio McDyess (3)
3 - Jerry Stackhouse (3)
4 - Rasheed Wallace (4)
5 - Kevin Garnett (5)

Micheal Finley (4) was taken 21st.

1996 - (3.8) - Kobe Bryant

1 - Allen Iverson (5)
2 - Marcus Camby (3)
3 - Shareef Addur-Raheem (3)
4 - Stephen Marbury (4)
5 - Ray Allen (4)

Kobe (5) went #13, Steve Nash (5) went #15, Jermaine O'Neal (4) went #17

1997 - (3.0) - Tim Duncan

1 - Tim Duncan (5)
2 - Keith Van Horn (3)
3 - Chauncy Billups (4)
4 - Antonio Daniels (2)
5 - Tony Battie (1)

Tracy McGrady (4) went 9th.

1998 - (2.6) - Dirk Nowitzki

1 - Mike Olowokandi (1)
2 - Mike Bibby (3)
3 - Raef LaFrentz (2)
4 - Antawn Jamison (3)
5 - Vince Carter (4)

Dirk Nowitzki (5) went 9th, Paul Pierce (4) went 10th

1999 - (3.0) - Manu Ginobli

1 - Elton Brand (4)
2 - Steve Francis (3)
3 - Baron Davis (4)
4 - Lamar Odom (3)
5 - Jonathan Bender (1)

Shawn Marion (4) went 9th, Ron Artest (4) went 16th, Manu Ginobli (4) went 57th.

2000 - (1.4) OUCH! - Micheal Redd

1 - Kenyon Martin (3)
2 - Stromile Swift (1)
3 - Darius Miles (1)
4 - Marcus Fizer (1)
5 - Mike Miller (2)

Mike Redd (4) taken 43rd.

2001 - (2.8) - Pau Gasol?

1 - Kwame Brown (1)
2 - Tyson Chandler (3)
3 - Pau Gasol (4)
4 - Eddie Curry (3)
5 - Jason Richardson (3)

Joe Johnson (4) went 10th, Richard Jefferson (4) went 13th, Tony Parker (4) went 28th, Gilbert Arenas (4) went 31st. (This was a deep draft, I'm leaving out the 3's, but I counted 8 more solid NBA starters in this draft.)

2002 - (2.2) - Amare Stoudemire

1 - Yao Ming (4)
2 - Jay Williams (1)
3 - Mike Dunleavy (2)
4 - Drew Gooden (3)
5 - Nikoloz Tskitshvilli (1)

Amare Stoudemire (5) went 9th, Carlos Boozer (4) went 35th

2003 - (4.0) - LeBron James

1 - LeBron James (5)
2 - Darko Milicic (2)
3 - Carmelo Anthony (4)
4 - Chrish Bosh (4)
5 - Dwayne Wade (5)

This draft was also deep with another 8 solid 3's and a couple of guys who could end up being 4's when it is all said and done - Josh Howard and David West.

*At this point it is harder to grade players and the final number is half performance, half speculation on my part.

2004 - (3.8) - Dwight Howard

1 - Dwight Howard (5)
2 - Emeka Okafor (3)
3 - Ben Gordon (3)
4 - Shaun Livingston (3)
5 - Devin Harris (4)

Andrew Igoudala (4) went 9th, Al Jefferson (4) went 15th

2005 - (3.8) - Chris Paul

1 - Andrew Bogut (3)
2 - Marvin Williams (2)
3 - Deron Williams (5)
4 - Chris Paul (5)
5 - Raymond Felton (3)

Andrew Bynum (4) went 10th, Monta Ellis (4) went 40th

2006 - (2.4) - Brandon Roy

1 - Andrea Bargnani (2)
2 - LaMarcus Aldridge (4)
3 - Adam Morrison (2)
4 - Tyrus Thomas (2)
5 - Sheldon Williams (2)

Brandon Roy (4) went 6th, Rudy Gay (4) went 8th

2007 - (4.0) - Kevin Durant

1 - Greg Oden (4?)
2 - Kevin Durant (5)
3 - Al Horford (4)
4 - Mike Conley (4?)
5 - Jeff Green (3)

A bunch of this year's rookies look promising, but I'm hard pressed to grade anyone a 4 or better - Oden and Conley are enough of a reach. This group ties for the highest mark but also has the most volatile rating. Oden and Conley could be 5's, or they could be 2's.

Now let's look at the average score for each draft position and the hit (3-5) to miss (1-2) scores, and the number of big hits (4's and 5's), and the Best player taken at that position

1st Pick: 3.38 (9-4) Big hits - 7 - LeBron James
2nd Pick: 2.77 (9-4) Big hits - 2 - Kevin Durant
3rd Pick: 3.15 (9-4) Big hits - 6 - Deron Williams
4th Pick: 3.15 (10-3) Big hits - 5 - Chris Paul
5th Pick: 2.92 (8-5) Big hits - 5 - Kevin Garnett

What this tells me is the 1st pick is the best one to have, and the second pick is cursed. In fact oustide of Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge - both of whom could be classified as question marks - there was nothing at the 2 for 11 years! Lucky for the T-Woles, the 3rd pick is the 2nd best one to have. Also surprising to me is the equal hit to miss ratio at all 5 spots - roughly two to one.

Mock NBA Draft 1- 35

2008-04-12T22:58:00.001-07:00

This is the first of at least a couple mock drafts. I'm assuming everyone falls where they should in the lottery, which means Wolves pick 3rd.

1 Miami - PF Micheal Beasley
2 Seattle - PG Derrick Rose
3 Minnesota - SG OJ Mayo
4 Memphis - C Brook Lopez
5 LA Clippers - SG Eric Gordon
6 New York - PG Jerryd Bayless
7 Milwaukee - SF Danilo Gallinari
8 Charlotte - PF Anthony Randolph
9 Chicago - PG Russel Westbrook
10New Jersey - C DeAndre Jordan
11 Indiana - PF Darrel Arthur
12 Sacremento - PG Darren Collison
13 Portland - SF Donte Green
14 Golden State - SG Chase Budinger
15 *Phoenix - PG DJ Augustin
16 Philly - C Kevin Love
17 Toronto - SG Brandon Rush
18 Washington - C Mareese Speights
19 Cleveland - PG Ty Lawson
20 Denver - C Robin Lopez
21 Orlando - SG James Harden
22 New Jersey - PF Earl Clark
23 Seattle - C JaVale McGee
24 Utah - PF Tyler Hansbrough
25 Houston - C Kosta Koufos
26 San Antonio - SF Nicolas Batum
27 New Orleans - SG Courtney Lee
28 Memphis - SG Chris Douglas-Roberts
29 Detroit - PF JJ Hickson
30 Boston - SF Joe Alexander

31 Miami - C Hasheem Thabeet
32 Seattle - PF Joey Dorsey
33 Minnesota - C Roy Hibbert
34 Memphis - C John Riek
35 LA Clippers - PG Mario Chalmers
36 New York - SG Bill Walker

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 10: The Second Pick

2008-04-05T13:36:00.000-07:00

This year the Wolves will own a second round pick between 33-35. I don't usually put much stock in the second round, but the Wolves could actually find value this year. Last year's big winner was Boston who got Glen "Big Baby" Davis with the 35th pick. Big Baby was rated #20 by Chad Ford, but fell hard during the draft, and now he is considered the 10th best rookie player. The Wolves could use a success story like that with their second pick. Here are my thoughts (and prayers):

1 - C Roy Hibbert: At one point this year I was ready to use the 3rd pick on him. Last year it is likely McHale would have grabbed him at 7 if he had come out. Needless to say, Hibbert's stock has dropped like a rock. ESPN has him as the #27 prospect and nbadraft.net has him at #25. He could actually slip into the early second round and provide the Wolves a true big man that allows AlJeff to play his preferred position of PF - and he's not a ball hog so AlJeff can do all the scoring. The problem is I have a hard time believing he gets past Seattle at 32. I can make a case for 9 of the 14 picks between 18 and 32 before he drops to the Wolves at 33.

2 - C Robin Lopez: ESPN has him at #31 and draft.net has him #14. What I like about Robin is that he is the rebounding defensive specialist while his brother Brook does all the scoring. This is a nice match with AlJeff. You can make pretty much the same case for Robin from 18-32 that you can for Hibbert - and it would be extra cute if Memphis grabbed Brook at 4 and Robin at 26. I'd be very happy if he fell to the Wolves, but not likely, less so than Hibbert in my opinion.

3 - SF Brandon Rush: Excellent role player who was KU's goto guy when someone had to step up - but his preference is not too. Will probably make an excellent third option in the NBA and the Wovles are weak at SF (Gomes and Brewer, who should be a SG). Very unlikely he falls to the second round. ESPN pegs him at #25 and draft.net at #17.

4 - PF Tyler Hansbrough: Awesome college player, but NBA scouts hate him. My guess is he'll be pretty decent along the lines of Gomes. At the very least, he'd be a capable backup big. ESPN puts him at #29 and draft.net has him going back for his senior year. My guess is Utah or San Antonio will grab him late in the 1st round.

5 - SF Bill Walker: Played second fiddle to Beasley all year, but I'd be willing to bet a 2nd round pick that he's got what it takes to play on his own. ESPN only ranks him at #46 and draft.net says he takes a sophomore season at K-State to show what he's got when he's the man.

6 - SF Chris Douglas-Roberts: His stock is sky high after an incredible NCAA run. Draft.net has him pegged at #19 but ESPN only gives him a #32. The reason I take Walker over CDR is the 30 lbs he gives up - he's just too small too have the same potential as Walker. That being said, I'll take him. I wouldn't be surprised if Memphis uses their pick at 26 or 34 on him.

Some crazy thoughts:

Would San Antonio trading the 27th pick for Ryan Gomes be that ridiculous? Gomes seems like the kind of player with the right character to fit into San Antonio and split time with the ungracefully aging Bruce Bowen. Gomes doesn't have his defensive prowess, but maybe he could free up those minutes for Bowen when the Spurs really need him...

Crazier idea - How about trading Randy Foye, Sebastian Telfair and Antoine Walker (expiring contract to make the money work) for Philly's 17th pick and the last year of PG Andre Miller? Philly probably won't want to let Miller go, but they seem to have some infatuation with Foye. The idea of going young might appeal to them, then again, this is a stretch. Of course the Wolves don't even consider this if they get Rose or can pull off my trade for Conley.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 9: The First Pick

2008-04-05T10:35:00.000-07:00

With 7 games to go, the Wolves will finish 3-5 in the ping pong ball race, so they are pretty much assured of picking 1-6. Knowing that, here are my top 6 picks for the Wolves.

1 - PF Micheal Beasley: He's still my first pick because he plays both sides of the ball, can rebound, and allows the wolves to play small as the 4 (AlJeff at 5) or play big at the 3 (AlJeff at the 4).
2 - PG Derick Rose: He is charging hard and making me rethink my pick of Beasley at 1. I'd be really happy with either guy, so here's hoping the wolves get some serious luck. The Final Four might push him to #1 in my book, we'll see.
3 - SG OJ Mayo: I've been back and forth on this guy. Even though the Wolves are silly with swing men (Foye, McCants, Jaric, Brewer), what tips me to OJ vs another position is that I believe his talent level is that much greater than anyone else available. Taking him and playing the best lineup would push the Wolves to something resembling Nellie-ball.
4 - PG Russel Westbrook: I admit that this is a reach since he only ranks as #10 at ESPN, but I don't believe in Jerryd Bayless or Brook Lopez.
5 - PG Jerryd Bayless: Ok I don't believe in him, but he fits better than anyone else left.
6 - C Kevin Love: He has really impressed me during the tournament and might be a good complementary big man to ALJeff.

Notable players agonized over:

C Brook Lopez - I think he's too soft and would be a bad fit on the Wolves. We already have one scoring big who doesn't play defense, adding another one looks suspiciously like the formula they have in NY with Randolph and Curry - yuck.

PG DJ Augustine - I really love this guy, but he's too damn small to be effective in the NBA. He'll make a nice back up PG in Phoenix learning from his idol Steve Nash.

SG Eric Gordon: I think Gordon is better than he played late in the season. I'm willing to bet the coaching turmoil in Indiana has more to do with his sinking stock than is being recognized. However, I don't think he could be a PG and I don't see him as a better prospect than Foye (whereas OJ is).

Picture this - Memphis wins the 2nd spot in the draft (currently sitting 4th), and after Beasley goes to the first pick (not the Wolves), Memphis is staring the best player in their building right in the face, but have a glut of PG talent already and can't possibly take a third! Enter the Wolves with their 3rd or 4th pick. The Wolves give Memphis this year's pick for PG Mike Conley. This allows Memphis to pick Rose and draft Brook Lopez to replace Gasol. Wolves win because they get a really good PG and don't have to reach or torture their lineup. Memphis wins because they get the hometown guy AND another high pick. Done deal, right?

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 8: Corrections and Updates

2008-04-05T10:27:00.000-07:00

Since my last post on the matter, the trade deadline has passed and the only significant update is that Gerald Green is no longer on the roster and no longer in the NBA. Thanks for the dunks. In return, Minnesota got Houston's 2nd round pick in 2009. More importantly, the Wolves did nothing with their more valuable pieces to pick up draft picks or expiring contracts, thus many of my scenarios are dead.

However, there is good news - I was wrong! I labored under the impression that the Wolves pick owed the Clippers was only top 3 protected this year and unprotected next year. Turns out that pick is top 10 protected for 7 years, before turning into a second round pick - I think in 2012. This is very good news for the Wolves and their fans, since their will be at least one new good player to watch next year, and maybe two... thus Parts 9 and 10.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 7: Future Roster

2008-02-21T11:31:00.000-08:00

This post will be terrible reading, but is necessary for reference purposes. Following are future Wolves rosters based on possible outcomes of various factors.

The McHale - everything goes wrong. McHale makes no trades for picks, loses all free agents, attracts only unknown free agents, and the Wolves fall out of the top 3 picks thus losing their 2008 selection to the Clippers.

PG - Randy Foye
SG - Rashad McCants
SF - Corey Brewer
PF - Al Jefferson
C - Chris Richard

6 - F Craig Smith
7 - G Marko Jaric
8 - F Antoine Walker
9 - C Mark Madson
10 - G Greg Buckner
11 - Early 2nd Round pick

The GREATEST EVER! All my suggested trades happen and Wolves land 1st pick in draft:

PG - Foye
SG - Brewer
SF - Mike Beasley (1st pick)
PF - Al Jeff
C - Roy Hibbert (Atl Pick)

6 - G McCants
7 - F Smith
8 - F Tyler Hansbrough (SA pick)
9 - C Brian Skinner (picked up in PHO trade)
10 - C Richard
11 - G Jaric
12 - C Madson
13 - F Walker
14 - G Buckner

2nd Pick + All Trades
PG - Derick Rose
SG - Randy Foye
SF - Brewer
PF - AlJeff
C - Hibbert

6 - G McCants
7 - F Smith
8 - F Hansbrough

No trades - 1st Pick

PG - Randy Foye
SG - McCants
SF - Brewer
PF - Beasley
C - AlJeff

No trades - 2nd pick
PG - Derick Rose
SG - Randy Foye
SF - Brewer
PF - Al Jeff
C - Chris Richard

Third Pick And Roll (it over to a trade to Clips for their 1st rounder and Wolves pick in 2009)

PG - Foye
SG - McCants
SF - Brewer
PF - (couple of options, still developing in the 6-9 range for PF's)
C - Al Jeff

This post will be updated and narrowed down once the trade deadline passes and again after the lottery.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 6: TRADE DEADLINE!

2008-02-21T11:05:00.000-08:00

The trade deadline is in two hours, so to make this official I had to get my trades out there.

Trade 1: Suns send Eric Piatkowski, Brian Skinner and ATL first round pick to T-Wolves for Sebastian Telfair and Wolves second round pick.

The Suns do this because they don't value 1st round picks that are guaranteed contracts. They get back a decent PG to back up Nash and replace Marcus Banks. They also get a very high 2nd round pick that is cheap and useful. Piatkowski is 37 and played in 13 games this year, he won't be missed. Backup Center Skinner is playing 15 minutes every night, but is less important now that Shaq is on the roster.

Wolves get a backup Center on the cheap and get a 1st round pick that will likely be used on C Roy Hibbert!

Trade 2: Minnesota sends Gerald Green to New Orleans for Julian Wright.

Green just lit up New Orleans at the All-Star break and his popularity is at an all time high. New Orleans can use him as an offensive presence who is ready to contribute off the bench. The Wolves get Wright who isn't used at all in New Orleans, but has been described as a versatile point-forward. If he develops well, he may be the perfect complement to the not so point guard Randy Foye.

Trade 3: Ryan Gomes to San Antonio for 2008 1st round pick and player TBD.

Wolves won't be bringing back Gomes, no reason too. And he would be an excellent fit in San Antonio as an understudy to Bruce Bowen. Wolves would have 3 1st round picks (essentially slightly upgrading their 2nd round pick lost to the Suns) to reload the team.

Trade 4: Salary Dump of Ratliff and Doleac for a disgruntled star? (Marbury, Vince Carter, etc)
Absolutely not! Even with the addition of one great player, the Wolves would still finish under .500 and not sniff the playoffs. If the guy brought in is a head case now, just wait till he spends a winter losing in MN. And worse, it jeopardizes the Wolves draft position for this year. Now maybe if the guy is injured for the rest of this year, has one year left on the contract, and the Wolves will lose the 2009 pick to the Clippers anyway... (you could just barely justify bringing on Marbury to screw the Clippers).

Trade 5: Salary Dump guys for a bad contract and a prospect or high draft pick?
I fully support this and I outlined how a trade for Ben Wallace might work. The bonus with Wallace is the mentorship he can give to Roy Hibbert when we make that trade with the Suns. There are plenty of other bad contracts and good picks to be had (Brian Cardinal in Memphis, Tinsley in Indiana, etc), I urge McHale to be creative. Even without dumping Ratlif and Doleac, the Wolves will shed enough contracts to fall under the salary cap next year.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 5: Draft Analysis

2008-02-17T17:11:00.000-08:00

I've made it clear that I love F Mike Beasley and PG Derick Rose for the upcoming draft. Beasley is a solid 6'9" who can play and guard either Forward position. Imagine the defensive, tall lineup the Wolves could run with:
PG - Randy Foye 6'4"
SG - Corey Brewer 6'7"
SF - Mike Beasley 6'9
PF - Al Jefferson 6'11"
C - Roy Hibbert 7'2" (We need that mid round pick, make the trade!)

This lineup features 3 excellent defenders and 3 excellent scoring threats. You could win a championship with this lineup. The downside is that Foye is not a true PG so the team will lack the boost you get from true PG that makes everyone else better. I think this team is talented enough to overcome this.

PG Derrick Rose is also the real deal and a very good team can be built around him, just smaller:

PG - Derrick Rose 6'4"
SG - Randy Foye 6'4"
SM - Corey Brewer 6'7"
PF - Al Jefferson 6'11"
C - Roy Hibbert 7'2"

Plenty big on the big end, but Foye and Brewer will likely give up inches, probably not a big deal for Brewer. This lineup still has three excellent scorers and two D specialists in Brewer and Hibbert - this team reminds me most of the Pistons. If they learn to play as a team and Rose can make everyone better, this team is a contender.

SG Eric Gordon is #3 on ESPN's prospect list, but I just don't believe. He might be a better version of Randy Foye, but is also a tweener and I'm willing to run with Foye.

#4 is Center DeAndre Jordan. A wise man once told me that success as a center is all about effort, thus the big contract years. The knock on Jordan is effort... no thanks.

#5 is Center Brook Lopez - this is a good player and a big man who can score, but lets his twin brother do the rebounding and defense. Well, the Wolves already have Al Jefferson who can score and not play D. I want my next big man to have the mindset of Ben Wallace, not Al Jeff.

#6 is an Itallian, no thanks

#7 is SG OJ Mayo - Mayo topped this board at one point, but is deemed one dimensional - that dimension being offense, and lots of it. That's fine, but with Foye, I'm comfortable at SG. Should be a Clipper...

#8 is F Donte Green - tall and skinny, but explosive. If the Wolves make the swap with the Clips I detailed in an earlier post, I'd look at Green in that range (7-10).

Clearly I think the Wolves should look for a C or PG if they can't get Beasley (even though the Wolves desperately need a good 3, I think they should hold out for an elite one or trust that the NBA is deep at the position and a Kobe trade demand is right around the corner...)

Here are other notable players at the C or PG position I'd like them to look at once they MAKE TRADES for these picks.

C Marreese Speights - ranked #11 by ESPN, but is an undersized center. Good player, but I don't think he'd fit next to AlJeff

PG Ty Lawson - ranked #13 and described as streaky by ESPN. A PG should not be streaky.

PG DJ Augustine is ranked #14 by ESPN and they post this note - "Augustin is a huge fan of Steve Nash and it shows in his game." YES! Now that's the kind of PG I want. Even if he's coming off the bench to give a Beasley lineup the "makes team better PG" or starts in the "we got screwed by the Clippers" lineup, I like this guy.

C Kevin Love is ranked #15 by ESPN, and in my opinion should not enter the draft this year. Too soon.

C Roy Hibbert is ranked #18 by ESPN and is falling on most scouts scorecards because the senior has not improved his averages, but I still love the guy. Will be able to focus on D and rebounding next to AlJeff and has played well against other big prospects. Please, please, please trade for Atlanta's pick!

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 4: The Clipper Pick

2008-02-17T16:57:00.000-08:00

Among the many reasons I hate Marko Jaric is that McHale gave away a 1st round pick to the Clippers to acquire him. This pick was protected - last year it was top 10 protected, this year top-3 protected, and next year is unprotected. No matter what happens, the Clippers will get an excellent player with this pick, and the Wolves will lose out. Most likely, the Wolves will pick in the top 5 this year and next. But there might be a way to alleviate the pain.

If the Wolves get the 1st or 2nd pick this year, I say they use it and take their medicine next year. The silver lining is that the Wolves can play to win and not worry about tanking for ping pong balls - but even without trying to lose, I see the Wolves in the 5 or 6 position next year. This opinion is based on my analysis that Mike Beasley or Derrick Rose are worth missing a draft. I prefer Beasley, but I could build this team around PG Rose, it would just be a smaller team.

If the Wolves get the 4th pick, they are screwed and completely lose out. The silver lining is that they will enter next year as the favorite to land the 1st pick - a distinction they held going into this year. If this happens, the later picks I'm hoping the Wolves will trade for will be crucial - as will continued development of young players such as Foye and Brewer.

If the Wolves land the 3rd pick, I would urge them to make a deal with the Clippers. Ideally they could trade the 3rd pick for the Clips pick this year (6-10) and for their own pick back. I think the Clips would do this because they have a huge need at PG and SG, and I expect both SG OJ Mayo (and local USC star) as well as PG Eric Gordon to be available here. And imagine if the Clips win the lottery and get #2 or #4 pick as well - they could take both or mix in Derrick Rose! But even if all they get is one or the other, they have to take that offer seriously. The upside for the Wolves is that there is a big drop off after Beasley and Rose, they can get someone useful in the 7-10 range (Augustine or Roy), and they have a good shot at the premiere player in 2009.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 3: Perfect Pick Storm

2008-02-17T16:38:00.000-08:00

When the Suns dealt Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks to the Heat for Shaq, most people weighed the impact on the Western Conference playoffs. I immediately had a dream...

I dreamed that the addition of Marion to the Heat would make them good enough to sneak into the Eastern Playoffs - thus removing a competitor for the 1st pick and giving the Wolves Pick #15 to complete the Davis/Blount/Walker trade earlier this year.

I also dreamed that the resurgent Heat would have knocked out the Atlanta Hawks, thus slotting their pick at #11 - which is already owned by the Suns.

I then dreamed that the Suns, in search of a cheap backup PG to replace the expensive failure that was Marcus Banks, would agree to trade Atlanta's pick to the Wolves for competent PG Sebastian Telfair...

I then dreamed that the Wolves won the lottery and got the first pick of the draft.

I then had the audacity of hope that the Wolves would get F Mike Beasley at #1, PG DJ Augustine at #11, and C Roy Hibbert at #15.

I then dreamed of the Wolves rolling with a lineup of:
PG - Foye
SG - Brewer
SF - Beasley
PF - Jefferson
C - Hibbert
----
SG - McCants
PG - Augustine
PF - Smith

and making the playoffs in the 2009-2010 season...

Since I had that dream, the Hawks improved a lot by getting PG Mike Bibby - so their pick will likely be 15-16. It looks like Miami will still suck, but will probably drop out of lottery contention. And worst of all, Memphis will charge hard for the ping pong balls after giving away C Pau Gasol.

Still, I'd like to see the Wolves make that trade with the Suns to get Atlanta's pick. I'd also like to see them make a run at lightly used Julian Wright, a point forward out of Kansas who plays for the Hornets. I'm thinking a package built around a ready to play Gomes might do the trick. Otherwise I'd use Gomes to get a #1 pick, probably in the 20's. But hey, maybe those picks could be packaged to move up and make sure we land C Roy Hibbert (likely to go 10-15).

Here's another trade I'd like to see the Wolves make - The Bulls are trying to dump Ben Wallace who has two years left after this year. Here are the options I'd give the Bulls:

Wallace for Ratliff's expiring contract and Marko Jaric (Bulls would do this if they wanted to shed salary today)
Wallace + Joakim Noah for Ratliff and Doleac's expiring contracts - (Bulls would completely dump the salary at years end, but would have to pay in prospect for the premium).
Wallace + 1st Pick (likely 7-10) for Ratliff and Doleac (same concept, but pick premium instead of Noah)

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 2: Ranking the Wolves

2008-02-17T16:11:00.000-08:00

I'm going to rank the Wolves as I see them 1-15. I will also grade them using my roster grades from the previous post. When applicable, I will list how coach Randy Whitman views the player or how the rest of the NBA views the player.

#1 PF Al Jefferson - A1: AlJeff is the only legitimate star and starter on this team.

#2 PG/SG Randy Foye - A1?: The problem with Foye is that injure has stunted his development so I'm only guessing his raw talent will translate into an A1 player, but the Wolves need it to happen. Right now, Randy is probably rated by the league as a B*.

#3 SG/SF Corey Brewer - A2? Brewer is just recently getting the minutes of a starter, and while his offense isn't there yet, his defense stands tall. Another player the league will see as a B*, but the guy has real talent and while his ceiling is lower than Foye's, I think he is far more likely to develop as expected.

#4 SG Rashad McCants - B: The Wolves have issues when only three guys are genuine NBA starters and two of those are questionable right now. I see McCants as a very useful offensive 6th man option once the Wolves get decent. In the mean time he should be starting and allowed to continue developing.

#5 PF Craig Smith - B: I like the little big man as a backup once the Wolves set their roster. He plays tough and has nice scoring touch. Also and excellent value as a 2nd round pick and not much value in the rest of the league. Very useful player for putting together a roster.

#6 PG Sebastian Telfair - B: Foye is a tweener guard whereas Telfair is a pass first point guard, which are all the rage right now. Telfair should be getting starting minutes this year, but his external value should be monitored. The Celtics gave up a 1st rounder for him, and there may be another team out there with a need for a pure PG back up (Suns?). I have no problem keeping him as a PG backup or pure PG option play once the roster is set in the future, nor would I hesitate to trade him for a mid 1st round pick.

#7 F Ryan Gomes - A2/B? I'm not sure how to grade Gomes who is getting starting minutes and doing very well. However, I don't believe he should be in the Wolves future plans. I think he'll get paid well after this season by another team, but with a salary under a millionthis year, he would be a very attractive commodity in a trade for a late 1st round pick.

#8 C Chris Richard - D1: The 8th most important player is now in the D-league... But I do see a future for Richard on this team. Again, I believe he is a very good 2nd round talent who could be the 8th guy or the big 9-10 guy. He'll be cheap and I believe he can be effective.

#9 F Gerald Green - B*: While I give Green a B*, and many NBA teams agree with me, Whitman has him as a D1 and will likely be releases at the end of the season. Hopefully the Wolves come to their senses and trade him for a 1st rounder (very cheap and tradeable contract) or Whitman comes to his senses and allow Green to be a big minute backup guy.

#10 C Mark Madson - D2: His contract at $2.5M is too big, but it goes a long time, so he might as well be the 5th big man on the team. Not completely useless, but close.

#11 C Theo Ratliff - D3: Theo might sign another contract after this year, but his value to the Wolves is purely that his contract goes away. Now some might want to be aggressive with his contract and trade for a another high priced player - which I would only endorse if it came back with top flight young talent or high picks.

#12 C Mike Doleac - D3: Just like Theo, but smaller contract.

#13 F Antoine Walker - D4: Has two years left on a big contract and already did his service to the Wolves by allowing them to dump Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. Sadly, Whitman still sees Walker as one of his best 5 - just look at all the minutes he gets in the 4th quarter in close games...

#14 SG Greg Buckner - D4: 3 more years left on his contract, thank goodness it is small peaking at $4M in the last year.

#15 PG/SG Marko Jaric - D4: Jaric is killing the team. He gets starting minutes and puts up D-League numbers. Every minute he plays steals development time from Telfair, Foye, McCants and Brewer. Allegedly his defense is great, but the D stats paint him average at best. His contract is as long as Buckner's and about double, maxing out at $7M in the last year. And to boot, the Wolves must give up this year's draft pick if 4 or greater, or give up next year's pick no matter how good. Wolves fans should pray that some team will take him off our hands.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 1: Roster Theory

2008-02-17T15:32:00.000-08:00

Before we can fix the T-Wolves, we need to know what a good team looks like. Following is a breakdown of each roster spot, 1-15.

ROSTER SPOTS 1-5: Clearly the starters are the most important spots on any teams. Some teams pretend one of their top 5 is actually a backup (see Manu Ginobli and the San Antonio Spurs), but a good read of a teams top 5 is average minutes and who is in the game in the 4th quarter of a close game. Beyond identifying the top 5, there can exist a gulf of talent between 1 and 5 (see LeBron James and anyone else on the Cavs). For later grading purposes, I will grade starters who have a shot at the All-Star game as A1, and solid NBA starters as A2.

All sorts of different theories of the starting 5 have been created. Looking at recent history, I've identified 4 successful mixes that have won the NBA championship.

The Batman and Robin: Essentially this model takes the best player in the league and pairs him with a very competent sidekick. The Bulls with Jordan and Pippen (6 titles), the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe (3 titles), and the Heat with Shaq and Wade (1 title). The problem with this strategy is having the best player in the league. I think only Cleveland with LeBron, and maybe the Lakers with Kobe can pursue this option, but unless you want to knock Lamar Odom's Robin skills, Kobe has shown himself not to be a Batman. The T-Wolves have little chance hitting this formula unless they get Mike Beasley and he becomes that guy.

The GI Joe Ninja Team: I was always a big fan of the comic book and a regular side series was following the ninjas - Snake Eyes, Storm Shadow and Scarlett. Snake Eyes was the cool, popular ninja of the group, but the other two were close in ability. Most teams pursue this 3 star strategy and San Antonio with Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker has won 4 titles this way. This strategy could work for the Wolves, but I suggest they take the following path;

The X-Men: I hate the movies and I hate the comics, but it works for this analogy - essentially 5 players with pretty similar skills if different skill sets. I think this model is incredibly difficult to cultivate for two reasons - creating a team concept in the ultimate me league of the NBA, and the salary cap. Only Detroit has won a single title following this model. However, I think this model is the best bet for the Wolves.

These models take us back to 1991 sans the two titles won by Houston in 1994 and 1995. Other than Hakeem, I don't know how that team did it or what model they fall in.

ROSTER SPOTS 6-8: These are the team's key backups that get significant minutes and are important to a team's overall success. For grading purposes I give a B to a player who is a solid backup and a B* to a young player who is a back up now, but could be developed into a starter.

ROSTER SPOTS 9-10: These are lightly used backups who take up garbage time and fill in for injured players. Almost always one of these guys is a back up big since they are more likely to get winded and need a deeper reserve. This is a lousy place to develop a player, but that is quite common to see. These guys get a C grade.

ROSTER SPOTS 11-15: There are 5 uses for these spots. In descending order of usefulness, they are:
D-1: Stashing a young, undeveloped, talented player. Great place for a kid who comes out too early as a freshman and needs some years and practice before they can really contribute.
D-2: Injury reserve. Essentially you have a player in your top 8 who is prone to injury and a veteran option is needed as insurance, but otherwise gets no minutes.
E: Leaving the spot empty, all the other 'options' are really just salary cap killer.
D-3: A highly over paid and useless veteran who has one year left on their contract. The only way this person helps you win is that an expiring contract has some trade value.
D-4: An over paid useless veteran with multiple years left on their contract. For an example, please see the New York Knicks roster.

Fixing the T-wolves - Part 0

2008-02-17T15:28:00.000-08:00

I haven't been a fan of the NBA since the 1980's, so it's strange that my hometown team after they send away one of the greatest players of all time and rack up one of the leagues worst records rekindles my interest in the whole league. Whatever the reason, I have been inspired. What is to follow is a planned 10 part series on turning the Wolves around.

Moneyball, T-Wolf Style

2008-01-13T10:24:00.000-08:00

It's no secret the Timberwolves are terrible this season and we all know why - not enough KG and way too much Kevin McHale. That makes for boring analysis, so I thought I'd complicate things and take a look at the payroll.

As it stands, the Wolve's payroll is just over $68 million. Of that $68 million, $17.2 million is the buyouts for contracts of Juwan Howard ($6.9M), Troy Hudson ($4.7M), Eddie Griffen ($2.9M), Beno Udrith ($1.7M) and Wayne Simien ($1M).

And then there are the big six contracts - contracts for players who represent nothing but bench filler.

Theo Ratliff ($11.7) - To his credit, Theo exists to have his contract expire and he's doing it brilliantly!
Antoine Walker ($8.3M) - Sort of like Ratiff but will require two years to expire. Maybe just maybe Walker will bring some value to a contending team next year who will be willing go give the Wolves an expiring contract and a pick.
Marko Jaric ($6M) - Worst contract ever, it goes on another four years and goes up to $7.6M!
Greg Buckner ($3.7M) - Nice guy and worth having over Trenton Hassel's contract - but simply a bench guy will collect checks for four years while riding the bench.
Michael Doleac ($3.1M) - Like a cheap version of Ratliff, he exists to have his contract expire.
Mark Madson ($2.4M) - Nice guy, but the third center off the bench. Fairly cheap space filler but could easily lose position to a half million dollar second round pick.

These contracts total $35.3 million. Combined with the buyout, $52.5 million of the $68 million payroll is for useless or non-roster players. 77% of the payroll goes to dead weight while only $15.3M goes towards useful players.

Things do get better next year as some of these contracts disappear and Al Jefferson gets a $10M raise. I'll bet donuts to dollars that the Wolves record improves as the six contracts disappear. Possibly a future post on how they could speed this along.

Billi vs Chilli

2007-09-23T11:59:00.000-07:00

This is coming very late - right now I'm watching the 3rd game of the NFL season and I still haven't done my suggested draft for the Vikings. My goal is to do an ongoing draft as if I was put in charge in 2006 and see how my team develops vs. the actual Vikes. So far, I am accepting all off season moves and I restrict myself only to trades that the Vikes make - I can't imagine and implement my own because, "who knows?"

Here is what my Vikes team looked liked vs the actual Vikes before the 2007 draft:
Billi Chilli
LB ILB Abdul Hodge OLB Chad Greenway
Abdul was an off and on starter for the Packers last year. He is a step down from his Iowa teammate Greenway, but allows EJ to play his breakout position of OLB while EJ has to be MLB for Chilli.

CB Ashton Youboty CB Cedric Griffen
Ashton spent some time as the dime back for Buffalo last year while Griffen worked his way up from Bench, to nickel, to starter replacing Smoot. Youboty is a bigger question mark than Griffen coming into 2007. My team will be looking for a more solid Corner. To be fair, Youboty was behind much tougher CB competition at Buffalo than Griffen.

T Winston Justice T Ryan Cook
Justice rode the bench last year for Philadelphia but is slated as their LT of the future. He protected Leinart's back side at RT and I know in my heart of hearts he would have won the RT job at MN last year. My line would be incredibly solid instead of relying on the schulb that is Ryan Cook at RT. The Cook selection is probably the biggest reason Ziggy fired the personnel VP the day after the draft.

DE Mark Anderson DE Ray Edwards
Anderson lead all rookie DE's with 12 sacks with the Bears. Edwards was a boring backup with 10 tackles and 3 sacks, but is showing some flash in 2007 (I'm not supposed to know any 2007 stats when I draft!)

QB Omar Jacobs QB Tarvarious Jackson
Pittsburgh released Jacobs during 2006 spring training and he disappeared into suckitude. Wasted pick on my part. T-Jack gives Chilli false hope...

S Greg Blue S Greg Blue
Yes, we both took Blue. Unlike Chilli, I wouldn't have signed S Mike Doss and wouldn't have cut Blue in spring training for a hurt veteran.

C Greg Eslinger G Artis Hicks
The small, agile former Gopher would have been the perfect backup in a zone blocking scheme which is inexplicably used by Chilli and his behemoth line. Chilli traded away his 6th pick for Hicks. At the time I applauded the move, but in 2006 Hicks was terrible and in game 3 of 2007 he has been benched.

WR Maurice Stovall
Because I didn't trade away 2 3rd round picks for Jackson, I got to pick up one more player. Stovall eventually got some time late in the season for Tampa Bay when Clayton went down and did ok.

Draft Analysis Impact by Position Grouping:

QB - I need a QB. I've got nothing. Chilli has T-Jack and doesn't know he's nothing. Advantage me since I can do something about it!

RB/FB - Both teams in same boat with Taylor and Richardson in the backfield.

WR/TE - The only difference is I have Stovall as my #3 behind Williamson and Wade (*sigh*). Chilli has nothing at #3 unless you count Robert Ferguson, which I don't. I am also far more concerned about TE as I don't believe Vishanco is the answer Chilli does.

OL - I have Winston Justice at RT and I need a RG. Chilli needs a RG and RT.

DL - I have a successful pass rushing and sacking specialist in Anderson. I'm comfortable having Kenechi and Erasmus competing for the other end spot. Chilli needs a pass rusher since Edwards has not proven himself.

LB - Chilli's squad is more solid than mine with fewer question marks - namely because Greenway is a legit #1 playing OLB while Hodge is a 2nd rounder. I may be looking for LB value to add depth.

DB - I'm more concerned than Chilli having to start Youboty whereas Chilli is more comfortable with Griffen. Chilli is looking for a nickel back, I'm looking for a nickel who can challenge for a starting spot.

Onto the Draft....

Round 1 - Pick 7
Billi - QB Brady Quinn (taken 22nd in 1st round by Cleveland)
Chilli - RB Adrian Peterson

I can't knock Chilli here. Along with T Joe Thomas who goes 3rd and WR Calvin Johnson who goes #2, I think AP belongs with those guys as the top 3 talent in the draft. This is real value for Chilli and the first 3 games this year back up that analysis. However I go with Quinn for many reasons. One, his stock is way down because of one bad game against the other hot shot QB Jamarcus Russel. I'm feeling very fortunate to get this much value at 7. Two, I believe that Quinn, who was highly considered in high school, a three year starter at Notre Dame playing big games and under the tutelage of Charlie Weiss is much more ready than T-jack who lead a community college to mediocre records and has 2 games of NFL experience. Quinn's experience and ceiling are much, much higher. I also believe this is the time to take a QB who needs a few years to develop and take my chances that I can get a very good RB in the next few years when I should still have high picks due to a developing QB. In my mind Chilli has it backwards by taking the dynamic back before the franchise QB. AP will be good, good enough to cause the Vikes to lose draft position but not good enough to push the team into the playoffs.

Round II
Chilli - WR Sidney Rice (and various trades that move them up to the 3rd pick in the 4th round)
Billi - WR Dwayne Jarret (taken by Carolina with next pick in second round)

The toughest decision for me here is whether to get a solid starting CB in Chris Houston (or Eric Wright) or take the WR. I could have seen Houston slipping into the late 1st round, but I had plenty of fans saying take Jarret at #7! I thought #11 to San Fran was more realistic and I am ecstatic Jarret is available this late. I think this guy is the next Keyshawn Johnson, and clearly his value has been docked by comparisons to Mike Williams. Whatever. This is HUGE value! A big body possession receiver to put opposite Troy Williamson (*sigh*), not to mention having Bobby Wade and Maurice Stoval as my #3 options (where they belong). Yes, at some point I still need a legitimate burner who can catch the ball, but this is a huge upgrade to give my new QB some weapons. Chilli wastes his pick on another speedy, immature, South Carolin Receiver. Dumb.

Round III
Chilli - CB Marcus McCauley
Billi - RB Michael Bush (Taken 1st in round 4 by Oakland)

I had lots to consider here. I like RB Micheal Bush, TE Ben Patrick, G Josh Beekman, OLB Steward Bradley and CB's Tanard Jackson and CB Marcus McCauley. Ultimately I go with Bush because I love the guy's talent. I'm hoping I can get a CB, G and TE later even those are all bigger need picks.

Round IV
Chilli - DE Brian Robison
Billi - OG Josh Beekman (taken 31st in Round 4 by Chicago Bears).
Robison is certainly working out after 3 games, but I already have a stud pass rusher in Anderson. CB Jackson, G Beekman and TE Patrick are still available here! My gamble paid off and here I fill my need at Guard. The longer my line can play together, the better they will be. I can always draft a CB in the future and just plug them in. There are still 3 decent TE's left in the draft, hopefully one falls to round 5.

Round V
Chilli - WR Audrae Allison
Billi - TE Ben Patrick (actually taken 5th in the 7th round by Arizona)
I'm surprised Patrick lasts so long. The other 2 TE's were taken late in the 4th and Patrick falls to me. I'm very happy with the value I'm getting to fill a huge need. I seriously considered him as early as round 3 which would have been a need reach. Now I get value and need.

Round VI
Chilli - LB Rufus Alexander
Billi - ILB Brandon Siler (Goes 30th in round 7 to San Diego)

I think we are on the same wave length needing depth at LB. I go with the inside guy to help push Hodge. I almost go with CB Kenny Scott, but I figure I'll take my chances with junk this year and go for a high CB draft pick next year.

Round VII
Chilli - QB Tyler Thigpen, WR Chandler Wilson
Billi - CB Kenny Scott (undrafted), CB Anthony Arline (undrafted)

Thigpen was released and picked up by KC on waivers to be their 3rd QB. WR Wilson didn't make the team. The last word on Arline is that he signed with the Chargers and was then a no-show to training camp. No real news on Scott except he went from sure 3rd rounder to undrafted on character issues... no idea where he is now. So long and short, even 3 weeks into 2007 all four of our 7th round picks are gone.

Wolves What ifs...

2007-06-28T12:57:00.000-07:00

What if the Wolves get the 3rd and 11th pick in this year's draft combined with their own #7 and last year's #7 which is Randy Foye? I project they will have these 4 in their starting lineup:

7-06 PG Randy Foye
7-07 SG Corey Brewer
11-07 SF Julian Wright
3-07 PF Al Horford

What if the Wolves had this set of draft picks in the past? I took a look back to 2000-2001
05-06 Draft Lineup:

3 - SF Adam Morrison
7 - PG Randy Foye
11 - SG JJ Redick
7* - PF Charlie Villanueva

Three ball hogs and a big man. I can't say I like this nucleus, too small, too selfish, and Redick and Morrison look like busts. For each group I'm giving a total of avg points scored and total average rebounds or assists (whichever is greater). This groups totals are low since they are young, but they aren't the lowest in points but are at about half in secondary stats - (41 pts - 13 R/A)

04-05 Lineup
3 - PG Deron Williams
7 - PF Charlie Villanueva
11 - C Fran Vazquez
*7 - SF Luol Deng

Except for Fran, this is a pretty good nucleus. They come in with a 47 pt - 22 R/A. Still about one player away from greatness.

03-04 Lineup
3 - SG Ben Gordon
7 - SF Luol Deng
11 - PF Andris Biedrins
*7 - PG Kirk Hinrich

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chicago Bulls! But in real life replace Biedrins with Ty Thomas and add Ben Wallace. These 4 come in at at 68 pts and 24 R/A

02-03 Lineup
3 - SF Carmello Anthony!
7 - PG Kirk Hinrich
11 - SG Mikael Pietrous
7* - PF Nene Hilario

Now it's the Denver Nuggets, with help. This group has the highest scoring at 69 pts and 24 R/A. This group is a little small, but add a decent big man and they would compete for titles.

01-02 Lineup
3 - SF Mike Dunleavy
7 - PF Nene Hilario
11 - SF Jared Jeffries
7* - C Eddie Griffen

This is the saddest group of them all with 36 pts and 22 R/A. Nene is the only one who doesn't belong on the bench.

00-01 Lineup
3 - C Pau Gasol
7 - C Eddie Griffen
11 - PG Kedrick Bell
7* - C Chirs Mihm

Even though this is clearly the tallest group, the finish 3rd in R/A at 23 and only bring a few more points that the 05-06 class at 43!

The good groups had solid 3's and 7's. Assuming we think Foye is solid, which I do, then it comes down to Horford and Brewer. Are they equal to Gordon and Deng? How about Carmelo and Nene? Gordon and Deng seem the more likely template. However, I believe the 11th pick this year will be like another 7 in any other drafts thanks to the depth created by the rule changes. So I predict the 2007 11 will be better than any other 11 listed.

Clearly if the Wolves get this deal, they will need to find one more piece. It could come in next year's draft if they stay in the top 3 (otherwise they lose the pick), or they could make a secret deal with KG to come back after a year, or they could poach a disgruntled star (Kobe, Pierce, whoever, there's 2 or 3 every year).

Dream Wolves

2007-06-27T15:45:00.000-07:00

I don't know what it is, I don't even like the NBA, but I've been sucked into this post and off season. And it is a terrible Wolves team that is sucking me in.

Right now they are so bad they are going to trade KG and two scenario's seem to top the board:

Scenario 1 - Wolves get Amare Stoudemire and one of their 1st rounders (24 or 29).
Scenario 2 - Atlanta gets involved and Wolves get Atlanta's 3rd and 11th picks.

In Scenario 1 I'd like to see the Wolves go after a big man late in the 1st:
1st Choice-Glenn (Big Baby) Davis... Remember this guy from the NCAA's two years ago? He was the dominant force and personality of that LSU team. Well, weight issues have him projected low in the 1st, but on the bright side he's a big body, moves well and has excellent offensive skills and can rebound. I'll take my chances if he's around. Odds he'll be around at 29 - 75%

2nd Choice -Sean Williams... Probably the best shot blocker in the draft and great D. Not much offense and a rap sheet a mile long. Considered the best player outside the lottery but character issues could drop him way down the 1st. Odds at 29 - 25%

3rd Choice - Nick Fazekas... Excellent offensive skills but is considered frail for an inside player. He is beefing up, but has a ways to go. Odds at 29 - 75%

With the Wolves #7 I go for a 2 or 3:

1st Choice - Corey Brewer... Florida's shooting guard is the best defender in the draft and provides excellent size opposite Foye in the backcourt. His 3-pt shot is coming along but the slashing Foye would have to carry the offense in the backcourt - which he should do. Odds available at 7 - 60%

2nd Choice - Julian Wright... Maybe I'm just a homer for KU, and 7 seems real early, but Wright is tall, good at defense, unselfish, considered a natural passer assist guy, think of a point forward like Pippen. Wolves could use a guy like this with Foye the official point guard but really more a scoring threat than offensive leader. Odds available at 7 - 99%

Scenario 1 lineup - ideal
PG - Foye... the young slasher leads the offensive attack from the backcourt
SG - Brewer... spots up to hit the 3 and provides ferocious defense to best 2's and 3's
SF - Ricky Davis... this is more by default, but he scores 20 every now and then
PF - Amare Stoudemire... leads team in scoring, rebounding and intensity
C - Davis... Very big body who can score, rebound, and take up space

Key Bench Players - Blount, McCants

Likely result - Wolves lose and get a top 10 pick, but not a draft protected top 3 and thus lose it to Clippers. Wolves should be on the prowl to package expiring contracts to pick up a disgruntled 3 or hope KG opts out after next year and comes back in 2009. A dispirited Paul Pierce is also another possibility sometime in 08 or 09. At that point, the Wolves will be serious playoff contenders.

Scenario 2 (Wolves have the 3rd, 7th, and 11th picks)

3rd Pick:
1st Choice - Providence Smiling :-) Essentially Portland or Seattle has a brain fart and doesn't take Oden or Durant and Wolves get either one. 1% chance.

2nd Choice - Al Horford... This Gator is clearly the best player after Oden and Durant. Very solid power forward who can score and rebound, but defense is still developing. Odds available - 99%

7th Pick:
1st Choice - Corey Brewer... Same reasons as above - great defender! Odds available at 7 - 60%

2nd Choice - Julian Wright... I don't want to risk losing Julian by 11 if Brewer is gone at 7. Odds available at 7 - 99%

11th Pick
1st Choice - Julian Wright... It would be sweet to get Wright at 11 and Brewer, but the Kings at 10 are eying him so it's a coin flip he's available. Odds available at 11 - 50%.

2nd Choice - Brendan Wright... the other Wright is thought to have a higher ceiling, but has lazy issues. I'm willing to take a chance at 11 on a guy who could be the 3rd best in the draft. Odds available at 11 - 20%

3rd Choice - Smorgasbord... If both Wright brothers are off the board - which is quite possible - filling the need for a 3 now becomes dicey. Jeff Green from Georgetown is potentially available here, but that is no better than 50-50. The Wolves could go small and take PG scoring dynamo Acie Law, but he duplicates Foye if Wolves get Brewer at 7 or makes for a small backcourt if Brewer isn't in back court.

The other option is to go big and one of these two should be around - C Spencer Hawes who has decent offensive skills or Joakim Noah who provides energy, defense, and limited O.

Personally, I like the idea of taking Noah with the third choice especially if I got Gators Horford and Brewer. All of a sudden I'm sitting on 3 starters from the last two NCAA champs and throwing in Randy Foye. This would instantly change the team chemistry and reduce the learning curve between the players.

The Wolves lineup should I get my ideal picks:
Scoring Guard - Randy Foye
Defensive Guard - Corey Brewer
Point Forward - Julian Wright
Power Forward - Al Horford
Center - Mark Blount

Key bench - McCants, Davis

This team is young and will likely stink enough next year to get a pick in the top 3 - thus protected from the Clippers. I'd like them to add 7'2" G-town center Roy Hibbert who is a defensive monster. With Brewer shutting down the backcourt and Hibbert dominating the front court on D, a little chemistry on offense could win many games starting in 2010.

If by chance we replace Julian Wright with Noah, and thus become the Minnesota Gators, they will still get a top 3 pick and can take the best scoring forward available or go after a disgruntled one in a trade.

Twins Third Done Installment

2007-06-02T09:22:00.000-07:00

After today's game against the Oakland A's, the Twins will have quite literally finished 1/3 of the season. For players who have regularly started this is a fun place to take significant stats times 3 and project where they'll be at the end of the year. Some highlights:

- 84 wins

- Morneau with 48 HR, 132 RBI, 75 BB, and 99K's (MVP II)

- Hunter with 33HR, 135 RBI, 36 BB, 114 K's, and 27 SB (contract year?)

- Cuddyer with 21 HR, 111 RBI, 69 BB and 114 K's (Needs to pick up the power)

- Punto with 78 BB and 90 K's (When did Punto start taking pitches and walks?!? He leads the team, this is inexplicable unless ESPN stats are just wrong.)

Kings of Control - BB/K (Bold is more BB than K)
L. Rodriguez 5/3
J. Bartlett 17/19
N. Punto(!) 26/30
J. Cirrilo 8/5
L. Castillo 14/11
J. Mauer 16/15

King's of Swing (Bold is a multiple of 3 or greater)
T. Hunter 12/38
M. Cuddyer 23/38
J. Kubel 11/33
J. Tyner 4/8
A. Casilla 1/8
L. Ford 2/6
J. Rabe 0/7

Interesting Team Vs. Stats

The Twins have 3 fewer AB than their opponents through 53 games, so these stats are quite approximate.

-Runs: 254 - 233 - Twins on pace to score 762, about 90 fewer than the Yankee's pace.

-Twins have 26 more hits than opponents - 505-479 for a .275 - .260 advantage

-Twins have slight edge in XB hits with 105 - 98.

-Twins getting killed with the long ball losing that race 40 - 61 (OUCH!)

-Twins close in BB with a lead of 176 - 170. This stat recognizes that Twin pitchers are slightly more stingy than the average staff (ranked 9th), and that the batters are slightly less patient than average (ranked 18th).

-Twins enjoy a HUGE advantage in the K zone leading 382-270 (who needs defense?)
This is a perfect storm of Twins not striking out (4th lowest in league) and a dominant staff (4th highest in league)

-Twins also outrun their opponents in SB with a 42-19 advantage while also avoiding CS with an 8-14 advantage.

How important are homeruns? Even with a huge advantage running the bases and striking out the other team, the Twins are only 3 over .500 because of their -20 HR deficit.

Also of note, the Cleveland Indians will be going to the World Series this year. Every other AL team is along for the ride. The Indians had the kind of performance last night, scoring 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Tigers. This ensures the Indians win the Central and have the confidence and swagger to sweep all future competition to the waste bin of the 2007 AL season. Considering the ineptitude and self destructive NL, just give the Indians the crown now.

Finally, the Twins have done what I asked of them since writing them off, and then some. Their sweep of the White Sox and win vs. the A's means they have effectively won 4 series in a row. Now just 30 to go... Good think inter league play starts soon.

The Rapist, for a Thousand Alex

2007-05-31T09:50:00.000-07:00

Now that Kobe wants out of LA, the mad scramble will go on and here is why the T-Wolves should be putting up an offer for the rapist.

We know that the Wolves, even with the 7th pick working out wonderfully, won't be able to compete next year. The best case scenario is squeeking into the playoffs, especially since Boston owns the 2008 pick, so no use tanking the season. However, if Kobe could be paired with KG, then the Wolves will contend for the West until the era of Portland domination takes off in 2010.

Here is the T-Wolves offer for Kobe:
F Ricki Davis (1 year and $7M left)
G Marko Jaric (3 years $5M)
G Randy Foye (2 years $3M)
2007 #7 Draft pick

The money works (within 20% of Kobe's $17.5M), The Lakers only have to eat one bad contract in Jaric, they can use Ricki to replace Kobe in the lineup if they maintain delusions of competing next season or they can use his expiring contract as trade bait (If they get cheap, they can let him walk and end up knocking $10M off their cap busting number). They get last year's #7 pick in Foye and this year's #7 pick (likely a very good forward) to pair with Farmar, Bynom and Odom. Yes the Lakers would be rebuilding with a true youth movement and no real shot at the playoffs, but it would be a REAL movement with lots of decent prospects. I haven't seen anyone besides Boston that can provide that quality of picks (this year's #5 with Boston and Minnesota's #1's next year).

Minnesota would roll with a lineup of Blount - KG - Kobe - McCants - James. Kobe and KG alone may come close to the Kobe-Shaq duo that powered 3 titles in LA, but Minnesota has a better supporting cast around them than the Lakers provided. (This in now way gurantees playoff series victories over Phoenix, San Antonio or Dallas, but dang - they could hang!).

Kobe may not like the cold or small market, but he could compete right away (he can veto any trade). I can also see another older veteran (a la Karl Malone and Chris Webber) wanting to jump on board for chump change to ride the gravy train.

If you want to see other scenario's that might compete with this offer, check out the sports guy at ESPN.

Besides the Pheonix offer and what Boston could provide, none of the other options compete with this package.

Closing the Book on 2007

2007-05-23T12:36:00.000-07:00

It probably seems early to give up on the Twins - "what about last year!" - exclaims the average fan? (As a Cubs fan first, this sentiment really confuses me - last year?) I'm here to tell you, last year was a fluke. In order for the Twins to rebound from their current record of 22-24 (I'm assuming they win today against the Rangers up 5-2 in the 8th) they need to do what they did in the last week - win 2 of 3 in every series from now till October. If they do that they will win 100 and the Central. And I'll throw them a bone and say they can split 5 even numbered series (2 or 4 games) and only win 95 - that should be good for the Central or the Wild Card.

Have we seen anything that makes us believe that the Twins can do this? Well, if Scott Baker pitches all year like he did in Milwaukee, if Silva puts his awful start against Texas behind him and Ramon Ortiz returns to April form and Johan Santana wins another Cy Young and Tori Hunter continues hitting .320 and Joe Mauer quickly gets healthy and Morneau continues his MVP level of play and Cuddyer turns up his power numbers a notch and Kubel becomes Kuddy Jr. then yeah... they have a shot.

But the fact is injuries are catching up and schmucks like Punto (.230), Rodriquez (.203), Tyner (.259) and Lew Ford (.185) are getting far too many at bats. Mauer is beyond the 15 days yet still on the DL. RonDL White might be available for a fall fashion show. Bartlett has a mystery problem with an MRI coming (but hey, isn't he one of those schmuck hitters at .240? Au contraire - Bartlett started the season with a nasty 1 for 20 slump. If you back that out he's hit .275 ever since.) Perkins and Reyes go down meaning no lefties (although Reyes loss is addition by subtraction) and Crain is down for the year.

The Twins can deal with the pitching injuries... for now. But any more and the bullpen really starts to thin.

The prudent thing to do now is hold a firesale of guys who won't be here next year. Let's review:

CF Torii Hunter - He's putting up MVP type numbers and leads all CF's in offense. His stock has never been higher and a number of teams could use great defender who provides his pop at 5 or 6.

2B Luis Castillo - I love Mr. Fast&Furious, I really do and I'd like to see him in Minnesota forever, but unlike Hunter the Twins actually have an in house replacement in Alexi Cassilla and the Twins just can't afford $5-$6M contracts on zero HR guys when ALL of their farm system talent resides in zero HR guys (except for one dude in low A ball who leads the Twins system with 6HR). It also helps that Castillo is still providing gold glove D and hitting .328 (.372 OBP). You know there are plenty of contenders who would love his speed, D, and offense (and reasonable contract) at second for the stretch run.

RP Juan Rincon - He has been Mr. 8th inning for the Twins and I believe he is the most valuable pitching chip the Twins can afford to offer a contender with his 2.75 ERA. I wholly believe that Neshak is ready and good enough to take over 8th inning duties, Guerrier is forgotten but brilliant, and Crain will be back next year for 4 quality right handed arms in the bullpen (including Nathan). And, Rincon is going to get paid soon. If the Twins can't afford $5M on Castillo, they certainly can't spend $3M on a relief pitcher.

SP Carlos Silva - His last two starts have been awful and have driven up his ERA from 3.00 to 4.50. The good news is that he spent the first quarter of the season pitching at 3.00 ERA level and eating innings like he did in 2004 and 2005. His 'here and now' value suffers from the last two starts - but another quality start or two should be enough to convince a contender that he is a proven option at the back of the rotation.

SP Ramon Ortiz - Ortiz managed to use the month of May to double his 2.57 April ERA to 5.37 on the year. Hopefully he can put together a quality start or two and fool a team into taking his cheap contract for a prospect or two.

Cutting Ortiz and Silva loose means bringing Garza and Slowey up for a rotation of: Santana, Boof, Baker, Garza, and Slowey. This pretty much burns up the pitching prospects, but the Twins still have Perkins who can start this year, Liriano who will be back next year, and some pretty decent AA prospects for the rotation and bullpen.

For sure the Twins need to address three positions when they make trades - a premier CF prospect, a power hitting 3B prospect, and a pure slugging DH type of guy. I'm even willing to follow Marty's advice and look for a catcher while Mauer is moved to third - the problem there is finding offensive value at catcher is quite difficult.

My suggestion to Terry Ryan - shop Torii and a pitcher now to a contender to get a premiere prospect. When that trade goes down, the league will take notice and Ryan should get good value. At that point, put the remaining pieces on the bloc and start receiving offers from contenders. I believe this strategy gives the Twins the best shot get some power at third, a reasonable replacement in center, and chance to contend in 2008.

Wolves-Bulls Magic (not the Orlando kind)

2007-05-23T07:42:00.000-07:00

The Bulls did not get the lottery pick they need to be a regular contender and the time to deal is now. The rumor mill says Pau Gasol is the target, but the better fit is with the Wolves for Garnet.

Now why would the Wolves give up Garnet? Well, let's look at their lineup next year:

C: Mark Blount
PF: Kevin Garnet
SF: Brandon Wright (according to ESPN mock draft)/Ricki Davis
SG: Randy Foye/Rashad McCants
PG: Mike James

This team is intriguing since it could go big by benching Ricki Davis and playing the 6-10 Wright or could go small by benching Blount. The only problem is that Foye and McCants still need lots of seasoning, Ricki still takes days off, Blount is inconsistent, and Wright is 19 and skinny. I like the young guys, but they won't get you past the 1st round of the playoffs should they luck into them. By the time the young guns arrive KG will be well past his prime (34).

KG on the roster ensures mediocrity and crappy draft picks. Both the Wolves and KG deserve better. Thus the trade to the Bulls...

Here's the trade and it will be rough on Chicago but ensure Eastern Conference Finals.

Wolves give up KG and the Bulls give up:
SG Ben Gordon
F Tyrus Thomas
2007 #9 draft pick
Sign and trade PJ Brown to one year $9.8M contract to make the money work (or any other player willing to sign for one year, but Brown kind of makes sense for one year Wolves, so I'll go with that).

Whew, that's alot for the Bulls to give up. It means moving Noccione, Duhon, or Thabo off the bench and into the 2 spot, but also means a starting lineup of:

C - Ben Wallace
PF - Kevin Garnett
SF - Luol Deng
SG - Chris Duhon
PG - Kirk Hinrich

Thabo and Noccione are still on the bench for decent depth. That is a scary lineup with scoring, defense, selfless play, experience, and energy.

Now look at the Wolves - I would still have them take Brandon Wright (or Julian Wright from KU or Al Horford from Florida - one or more will be there at 7) and according to ESPN 7-2 Georgetown Center Roy Hibbert is available at 9.

C - Roy Hibbert
PF - Tyrus Thomas
SM - Brandon Wright
SG - Ben Gordon
PG - Randy Foye

Bench:
C - Blount
F - Ricki Davis
G - Rashad McCants
G - Mike James

Next season, Davis has one year and $6.5M remaining - trade bait! Mike James with 2 years at $5M is also quite tradeable and should be. This will remove any silly ideas by the coach that he must play veterans to 'win now, " Hell No! Lose now, get another great pick next year, develop the young talent, and hope a superstar or two emerges to support Gordon, and that McCants and future draft picks become excellent bench players so that the Wolves can contend with Portland by 2010.

This is the only hope...

NBA Dreams

2007-05-23T05:51:00.000-07:00

The NBA held their lottery last night and the fates of three teams were sealed. The Trail Blazers have been guaranteed a shot at every championship from 2009-2019. The Timberwolves have been shut out from that discussion till at least 2011 (post Garnet), and the Bulls know that the time to make a big move is now.

The Trail Blazers - Last night the West got stronger with Seattle and Portland going 1 and 2 and thus ensuring two new superstars in the talent packed Western Conference. I feel bad for Seattle since Durant on that team will only be good enough to put them in the Kevin Garnet mid-range team talent that will ensure no lottery picks and 1st round playoff exits - and a move to Oklahoma... ouch.

Portland on the other hand now has the nucleus to compete starting in 2009. Their 2006 draft of LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Brandon Roy (6) and Sergio Rodriguez(27) has already been graded a "home run" and now add Oden in this year's draft - goodnight. Next year will be a building block year as Oden gets used to the NBA game and the young talent learns to work together. Just look at what they will roll with next year:

C - 7'1" Greg Oden: 19-year old superstar of the future.

PF - 6'9" 25-yr old Zach Randolph had a break out year going 23.6 pts and 10 rebounds (vs career averages of 16 and 8). He also has 4 years at $12M per left on his contract. He is backed up by Aldridge who had a nice rookie season so Randolph could become trade bait - or just provide a solid scoring option.

SF - 6'7" 25-yr old Darius Miles should come back from micro fracture surgery after missing all of this year. The Blazers are on the hook for another 3 years at $7.75M - if he can start or backup then Udoka and Outlaw can be let go to save money. However this position is a long term question mark unless Miles comes back healthy, productive, and meshes with this team that will seem brand new to him.

I think they have some flexibility to move Roy here if Martel blows up and the other good news is that the NBA is stacked with SF talent. It is quite possible that after next season when LaFrentz has one year and $11.5M left, he can be moved for a quality SF from a team looking to make changes (ie Allen Iverson type of trade). Another if - Aldridge becomes a solid PF and Randolph can be moved for a front line SF. While this is a question mark now I believe there is a 90% probability that by the trade deadline of the 2008 season this will be addressed (I didn't even consider the 2008 draft where I'm guessing they'll pick 10-14).

SG - 6'6" 22-year old Brandon Roy had a ROY season with a 16.8 pt avg and 4 assists and rebounds a game. Could also be a SF.

PG - 6'3" 23-year old Jarret Jack has impressed his sophomore year and could be the in house answer at PG for years to come. He averages 12 pts and 5 assists a game and has a reputation as a fierce backcourt defender and excellent free throw shooter. Critics say he needs to work on his 3-pt range, I say with the talent around him he needs to get his Assists average into double digits and continue using his stout frame to slash the lane and draw free throws. The last thing the Blazers need here is a shoot first guard - they need a pass, slash, or pass (then maybe shoot) point guard.

Bench
C - 7'1" 27-year old Gopher Joel Pryzbilla has 4 years left at $5M a year (while averaging 2 pts and 4 rbds a game) and WAS the starting C last year. He now becomes a solid backup or possibly trade bait since he is backed up by last year's #2 pick 6'10" 21 yr old LaMarcus Aldridge (9 pts and 5 rbds a game). Jamaal Magloire and his $8.5M will be let go and after paying Oden $4.5 will get the Cap number down from $21.5M to $17.5M over.

PF - Aldridge can back up here as does Raef Lafrentz. While I have a soft spot for the former Jayhawk, he's pretty much washed up and untradeable till after next season with 2 years at $11.5M remaining. Portland can't wait to take him off the books.

SF - 29 yr old Ime Udoka was the starter last year, I'm not a believer he's that good and his cheap $700k salary is up. If they can sign him cheap, might be worth keeping him around as a backup.

22-yr old Travis Outlaw's rookie contract expires this year ($1.8M) and he has shown steady improvement, but nothing spectacular. Blazers could play the young Outlaw against the older Udoka against each other for back up money.

Perennial backup Fred Jones has one year left at $3.1M and won't be a factor.

SG - 20-yr Old 6'7" Martell Webster showed some improvement. He is under contract for next year and will have the chance to backup and show he is a long term solution next to Roy as the 2 or 3.

PG - Dan Dickau has never established himself and has one year left at $2.7M. I see him being a practice squad guy or trade bait while last year's late #1 Sergio Rodriquez gets the bulk of back up minutes. Sergio seems to have the pass first mentality that might fit better than Jack's skill set and thus might be the long term starter at Point.

If I'm in charge of the Blazers, I don't worry about my record next year. I worry about player development and chemistry. I expect to miss the playoffs and get a crappy draft pick in 2008 (13 or 14), but I don't care. I don't tank games to improve my pick because my focus is getting these guys feel like winners and work hard every game. Oden, Randolph, and Roy get every minute they can give and I make sure Aldridge gets every spare minute to show his stuff and develop. Heck, if Miles doesn't work out I may go with a big team and start him with Oden and Randolph (yikes!). I also do everything I can to determine the best mix at 3 with Miles and Martell as the front runners. And finally I stage a fierce competition at point between Jack and Rodriguez.

For 2008 I fix the 3 spot by trading Raef and my 1st pick if Miles or Martell don't work out. I expect to have my starting 5 set and experienced and I expect to make the playoffs. In 2009 and beyond, I expect to make a real run at the Conference championship on a regular basis.

Of course, this all assumes that Oden is for real and not Kwame Brown Jr.

Draft version 2.0

2007-04-18T00:07:00.000-07:00

Here is a complete update. This time, trades allowed, encouraged, and included.

ASSUMPTIONS:
MIA gets QB Trent Green for 4th draft pick to KC
MIA Cuts QB Duante Culpepper
OAK signs QB Duante Culpepper
GB signs RB Dominack Davis (Williams)

Oak – Here we have a dilemma, take the best player in Calvin Johnson or trade the pick to TB? Rumor has it TB is offering 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. This would be a pretty sweet haul and allow the Raider to fill a lot of holes. But the vision of Duante throwing balls to Moss, Porter and Calvin has to be haunting for Al Davis. Me, I make the deal and build a team the way Jerry Jones did in the 90’s with Dallas. But I think Al Davis reaches for the stars and OAKLAND TAKES: WR CALVIN JOHNSON

*DET – It takes about two seconds and the Cardinals call offering their 1st and 3rd round pick for Detroit’s pick here. This makes Detroit nervous. They really want Gaines Adams, but with Johnson off the board, TB is likely to take a DE or DT at #4 if T Joe Thomas goes to the Cardinals. The Lions make a call to the Bucs to see if they are willing to swap the 4th and 5th picks this round to swap 2nd and 3rd round picks. TB bites on the free value and two trades go down.
TRADE – LIONS GET ARI 1st round pick (5) and ARI 3rd round pick (69). ARI GETS LIONS 1st round pick (2)
TRADE – LIONS GET TB 1st round (4), 2nd (35) round, and 3rd (68) round picks. TB GETS ARI 1st round (5), LIONS 2nd round (34), and 3rd round (66)

ARIZONA TAKES T JOE THOMAS

CLE – This is somewhat unexpected. It was thought the choice was between Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson. But now Jamarcus Russel is available and that changes the calculus. There is no doubt Cleveland needs a franchise QB, but they also need to win now and Peterson will deliver much quicker than the QB’s. I believe the here and now trumps the future and the Browns pick:
CLEVELAND TAKES RB ADRIAN PETERSON

*TB – DET gets there man and takes
DETROIT TAKES DE GAINES ADAMS

*ARI – TB wants no part of the QB’s and has serious need for a DT and goes for:
TAMPA BAY TAKES DT AMOBI OKOYE

WAS – Dan Snyder can’t believe his luck. Gibbs can’t believe he wasted last year’s 1st rounder on Jason Campbell. Talk about sunk costs. Now to complicate things, Chicago calls and offers Briggs and the 31st pick. Russel would be oh so sexy, and Snyder loves sexy. But Gibbs gets his way and makes the trade:
TRADE: WASH gets LB Lance Briggs and CHI 1st rounder (30)
CHI gets Wash 1st rounder (6)
Chicago begins to get some calls, first from Miami, then from Dallas. Miami offers their 1st and 3rd round picks. Dallas offers their 1st and 2nd round. Miami sweetens the deal and offers their 2nd round pick from NE. Bears accept.
TRADE: BEARS GET MIA 1st round (9) and NE 2nd round (60).
MIA gets WASH 1st round (6)

MIAMI SELECTS QB JAMARCUS RUSSEL

MIN – Minnesota gets a call from Dallas with same offer and readily accepts:

TRADE: MIN GETS DAL 1st round (22) and Dallas 2nd round (53)
DALLAS GETS MIN 1st round (7)

DALLAS SELECTS QB BRADY QUINN

ATL – Wastes no time and takes:
ATLANTA SELECTS S LARON LANDRY

*MIA – CHI has something to consider. The best LB in the draft is an ILB, and the Bears already have a pretty good one of those. They have a decent shot at getting a good LB in the early 2nd round, but if they want a game changing TE, this is the time to take:
CHICAGO TAKES TE GREG OLSEN

HOU – The two best players on board represent the Texan’s biggest needs – OT and CB. They finally address the O line:
HOUSTON SELECTS OT LEVI BROWN

SF – The Niners have lots of nice options. They can take their pick of the 2nd tier WR’s, take a quality DE or DT, or get the best LB on the board, which is what they do.
SAN FRANCISCO SELECTS ILB PATRICK WILLIS

BUF – We all thought they would want a RB, but not so. They grab the best player on the board.
BUFFALO SELECTS CB LEON HALL

STL – The Rams need help on the D-line and two pretty good options DE Jamaal Anderson and DT Alan Branch stand out. Considering the depth at DE this year, they go with,
ST. LOUIS SELECTS DT ALAN BRANCH

CAR – Not a lot of good options for Carolina and no one stands out on the board as a good trade partner. Thus the panthers fill a need.
CAROLINA SELECTS S REGGIE NELSON

PIT – New coach Tomlin loves his options at DE and CB. He only wishes he had more picks so he could take all three. Alas he settles on,
PITTSBURGH SELECTS DE ADAM CARRIKER

GB – The Pack will fool us and not take RB Marshawn Lynch as 99% of mocks tell us they will. Instead they will hand the ball to the back formerly known as Dom Davis and Favre has a new target:
GREEN BAY SELECTS WR DWAYNE BOWE

JAC – The Jags would prefer a Safety here, but there is too much value in selecting hometown fav:
JACKSONVILLE SELECTS DE JARVIS MOSS

CIN – The Bengals need the best defensive player on the board. That’s DE Jamaal Anderson or CB Derrelle Revis. They have more need in the secondary so:
CINCINNATI SELECTS CB DERRELLE REVIS

TEN – Jeff Fischer hates Cincy right now. The next CB, Aaron Ross is a step down from Revis. But they have good WR options too…
TENNESSEE TAKES WR ROBERT MEACHEM

NYG – Tackle, OLB, and a cornerback are glaring needs. Staley, Timmons and Ross all represent approximate value at this pick filling all three needs. Too bad they only get one.
NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT OLB LAWRENCE TIMMONS

DEN – Jumps at the chance to grab fallen prospect:
DENVER SELECTS DE JAMAAL ANDERSON

*DAL – MIN gets the chance to get the guy every idiot mock thinks they should get, but they get him at a reasonable spot:
MINNESOTA SELECTS WR TEDD GINN JR.

KC – The Chiefs have many needs. Pro Bowl Guard Will Shields and Tackle Willie Roaf have retired in consecutive seasons. This team needs desperate help at WR and the defensive secondary is quite shaky. However, this is a team that loves the ground game so get:
KANSAS CITY SELECTS T JOE STALEY

NE – The Pats get a couple of picks here in the 20’s and they would like to grab a LB and a defensive secondary guy. They see that all the teams between their next pick all have CB high on the list so Bellichek says screw you all:
NEW ENGLAND SELECTS CB AARON ROSS

NYJ – The jets hate Bellichek. They really do need a CB but they would have to reach. DT Harrel is intriguing here, but the need isn’t great. RB Lynch also gets a look but the Jets suck it up and take:
NEW YORK JETS SELECT CB Chris Houston

PHI – Happily grabs:
PHILADELPHIA SELECTS S MICHEAL GRIFFEN

NO – The Saints really need a CB, but they could also use a LB, and there is much more value there thanks to the Pats – and they can return the favor to Bellichek by taking:
NEW ORLEANS SELECTS OLB PAUL POSLUSZNY

NE – Mildly chagrined by the Saints, the Pats shrug and take:
NEW ENGLAND SELECTS OLB JON BEASON

BAL – The Ravens really could have used a tackle or LB, but the value has been stripped away. They could try a conversion by taking G/T Justin Blalock, and heck, they could use a guard – but they’ll take a chance on a DE they think can be an OLB.
BALTIMORE SELCECT DE ANTHONY SPENCER

SD – This is an easy pick for the Chargers.
SAN DIEGO SELECTS WR DWAYNE JARRET

*CHI – WASH get the defensive help they need.
WASHINGTON SELECTS DT JUSTIN HARREL

IND – Indy goes for D and gets the last elite CB.
INDIANAPOLIS SELECTS CB ERIC WRIGHT

Round 2

OAK – How much faith do the Raiders have in Culpepper? If much, they will build the O-Line
OAKLAND SELECTS G/T JUSTIN BLALOCK

*DET – TB is in a good position to grab a WR or DE. There is more value offense.
TAMPA BAY SELECTS WR SIDNEY RICE

*TB – DET goes for O
DETROIT SELECTS QB TRENT EDWARDS

CLE – Got their RB in the 1st round, so they take:
CLEVELAND SELECTS QB DREW STANTON

CHI – Would have liked to address the LB, but will instead get that later and help the O-line.
CHICAGO SELECTS G BEN GRUBBS

ARI – Despite getting their guy in Thomas, they need to consider another upgrade along the line. But they could also use some D-Line help. The value here in on the O-line, but they go for balance.
ARIZONA SELECTS DE RAY MCDONALD

ATL – The Falcons see the DE’s going so get in on the action to fill their second largest need:

ATLANTA SELECTS DE CHARLES JOHNSON

MIA – The Dolphins need to protect their new investment.
MIAMI SELECTS G/T ARRON SEARS

MIN – Got their WR, now they need a CB or DE.
MINNESOTA SELECTS DE LAMARR WOODLEY

SF – Helped their D in round 1, now for the O.
SAN FRANCISCO SELECTS WR Steve Smith

BUF – At quite a bargain, they take:
BUFFALO SELECTS RB MARSHAWN LYNCH

ATL – Because Vick could use a little love:
ATLANTA SELECTS T TONY UGOH

CAR – Could also use some line help.
CAROLINA SELECTS G/T MARSHAL YANDA

PIT – Grab a great prospect here;
PITTSBURGH SELECTS C RYAN KALIL

GB – Get a good value here on offense.
GREEN BAY SELECTS RB ANTONIO PITTMAN

Jac – Jags get their safety here.
JACKSONVILLE SELECTS S BRANDON MERRIWEATHER

CIN – The got a CB in round one, now for that DLINE.
CINCINNATI SELECTS DT TURK MCBRIDE

TEN – Still need to replace Pac Man
TENNESSEE SELECTS CB JOSH WILSON

NYG – Could use a tackle or a CB – value is on D
NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT CB TANARD JACKSON

STL – Got their DT, now for a DE to complement Leonard Little
ST. LOUIS SELECTS DE TIM CROWDER

*DAL – MIN got their WR in 1st and earlier in 2nd got a DE. Now a CB or guard would be good here. In my mind the value is clearly on D with a good chance of getting a decent RG or RT in the 3rd.
MINNESOTA SELECTS CB MARCUS MCCAULEY

KC – Lo and behold there is still very good WR talent here, but it would be nice to fill that O-Line…
KANSAS CITY SELECTS WR ANTHONY GONZALEZ

SEA – For their first pick of the draft, they grab some line support.
SEATLE SELECTS C SAMSON SATELLE

DEN – With good WR talent still on the board, the choice is easy.
DENVER SELECTS WR CRAIG DAVIS

PHI – Would have liked that last quality WR, but will be happy with:
PHILADELPHIA SELECTS FB Brian Leonard

NO – A TE would be nice, but they will continue to stock the D.
NEW ORLEANS SELECTS CB JONATHAN WADE

NYJ – Continue to help their D
JETS SELECTS DT TANK TYLER

*MIA - CHI get to replace Lance Briggs.
BEARS SELECT OLB STEWART BRADLEY

BAL – Finally help the O-line.
RAVENS SELECT T JAMES MARTEN

SD – Got a front line WR in the 1st, now fill a glaring need in the 2nd. What a draft for an already great team!
CHARGERS SELECT S ERIC WEDDLE

NYJ – Will now help their O
JEST SELECT TE ZACH MILLER

TB – Takes a chance on the troubled but talented DE.
BUCS SELECT DE QUENTIN MOSES

Round 3
OAK – They got a QB and WR, how about some line help?
RAIDERS SELECT T RYAN HARRIS

*DET – TB needs to help the O-line
BUCS SELECT T DOUG FREE

CLE – goes for some D
BROWNS SELECT CB DAYMEION HUGHES

*TB – DET gets two in a row here. Could get some real value and make the home team happy with the first by taking Wolverine:
LIONS SELECT ILB DAVID HARRIS

*ARI – DET with second pick can stir some rivalry on the D by grabbing Irish prospect:
LIONS SELECT DE VICTOR ABIAMIRI

DEN – The Broncs have had a nice draft so far going after value. They continue the trend and grab their next 1000-yarder with a great name.
DENVER SELECT RB KENNY IRONS

MIA – The d-line needs some help
DOLPINS SELECT DT BRANDON MEBANE

MIN – Can finally help the O-Line
VIKINGS SELECT G JOSH BEEKMAN

HOU – Still need a CB
TEXANS SELECT CB Tarrel Brown

BUF – SELECTS ILB BRANDON SILER
ATL – SELECTS WR JASON HILL
SF – SELECTS DE IKAIKA ALMA-FRANCIS
PIT – SELECTS CB FRED BENNET
GB – SELECTS TE SCOTT CHANDLER
JAC – SELECTS DT QUINN PITCOCK
CIN – SELECTS OLB TIM SHAW
TEN – SELECTS RB CHRIS HENRY
NYG – SELECTS DT RYAN MCBEAN
STL – SELECTS CB KENNY SCOTT
CAR – SELECTS TE BEN PATRICK
KC – SELECTS S JOSH GATIS
SEA – SELECTS TE MATT SPAETH
DEN – SELECTS OLB JUSTIN DURANT
DAL – SELECTS WR AUNDRAE ALLISON
NO – SELECTS TE MARTREZ MILNER
NYJ – SELECTS RB MICHAEL BUSH
PHI – SELECTS DE JAY MOORE
NE – SELECTS S SABBY PISCATELLI
BUF – SELECTS QB JOHN BECK
SD – SELECTS ILB BUSTER DAVIS
CHI – SELECTS DT PAUL SOLIAI
IND – SELECTS OLB STEPHE NICHOLAS

All Done Blown up...

2007-03-22T09:22:00.000-07:00

The trade of Matt Schaub to the Texans definitely blows up my mock draft and continues to make the Houston front office look silly. In exchange for a lousy backup QB, Atlanta moves up two spots to number 8, grabs an early 2nd rounder, and gets what will most likely be another early 2nd round pick in 2008. Very sweet deal for the Falcons.

Houston's move down to 10 makes the pick of OT Levi Brown quite probable assuming Miami at 9 doesn't snap him up. Another likely scenario is the Vikes at 7 and Houston at 10 swapping picks for David Carr. At 10 the Vikes would have a line on DE Jamaal Anderson, S Laron Landry or OT Levi Brown. They also more reasonably grab a WR at 10 than at 7, but considering the depth at WR, I'd wait till round 2.

I think Atlanta will still grab Landry at 8 and use their two early 2nd round picks on a DE and a WR.

Other things that may change my draft is that I missed that OG Dielman re-signed with the Chargers, the Bears are likely to complete a trade for S Archuletta, and Cato June ended up in Tampa Bay. We still need to see where LB Lance Briggs shows up and I suspect Washington might move out of 5 to add picks one the first day.

I do have a proposal for the Briggs situation - trade Briggs and the Bears early 2nd round pick (5th in round 2) to the Cheifs for their 1st rounder at 23. Essentially the Bears move up 13 spots and get two first rounders. At 23, the Bears should be able to land one of the better, if not best LB prospect and use their pick at 31 on an OG. TE Olsen is also possibly on the board at 23.

Another potential trade - If Calvin Johnson doesn't get picked by the Raiders at 1, he will fall to 4. Tampa could be tempted with the Falcons 7th pick and one of their 2nd rounders to give the Falcons the 4 spot to get Calvin Johnson.

2007 NFL Mock Draft

2007-03-16T12:39:00.000-07:00

It is still early, but most of the Free Agents that matter have signed and most of the future rookies have exhausted their chances to show themselves off (senior bowl, combine, campus pro days). I generally try to line up teams with quality and needs, and I don't allow myself to make any trades. Here goes...

1 - Raiders: WR Calvin Johnson
I think the Moss for Rogers trade will go through and Raiders will get best player in the Draft.

2 - Lions: QB JaMarcus Russel
Quinn doesn't want to play for the Lions, and the Lions need a splashy QB addition.

3 - Browns: QB Brady Quinn
The Weiss/Romeo conspiracy is cracked and the Browns get the next Tom Brady.

4 - Bucs: T Joe Thomas*
Gruden really hoped that Raiders would go QB and Johnson will fall, but is still happy to get 2nd best player in draft at 4.

5 - Cardinals: DE Gaines Adams
This pick is tough since Thomas is gone. I had to flip a coin between Adams, T Levi Brown, and DE Jamaal Anderson.

6 - Redskins: DT Alan Branch
The D-line was awful. Okoye could also have gone here.

7 - Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson*
Yes, RB is not the most pressing need. If that were the case, they would take DE Jamaal Anderson since it is too soon to take a WR. OT Levi Brown could also have been considered, but Peterson is by far the best RB in the draft and the 3rd best player overall. Chester Taylor was ok last year, but now the Vikes have a real stud. A potential trade if the first 6 go as planned - Houston trading David Carr for this pick so they get Peterson while the Vikes take Anderson at 8.

8 - Texans: OT Levi Brown
The woes on O-line in Texas are legendary. Brown should help end that.

9 - Dolphins: DE Jamaal Anderson*
Dolphins get a very good DE, but wanted T Brown. So far alot of teams are losing their first choices by one spot or so.

10 - Falcons: S LaRon Landry
Without Adams and Anderson on the board, this is an easy choice for Atlanta. Probably would have taken Landry over those two anyway.

11 - 49ers: WR Ted Ginn Jr.
Outside of Calvin Johnson, I believe Ginn, Dwayne Bowe and Dwayne Jarret are in the same class, with another 5 recievers in the next class. This year's draft class is incredibly deep at reciever. Cal Johnson deserves to go #1, Ginn Jr, and the two Dwaynes - Bowe and Jarret deserve to go 10-19 in the first round, and there are another 5 WR that deserve to go in the 1st round after the 20th pick. My gut says Ginn goes first, but it could be a Dwayne - and DE Adam Carriker has a shot here.

12 - Bills: DT Amobi Okoye
I barely believe this myself. CB Leon Hall should be a lock, but the Bills are weird and instead will take the 19 year old phenom. Over the long haul, this pick pays off, but doesn't make much sense on draft day.

13 - Rams: DE Adam Cariker
If the Rams were spooked by age of Okoye, the Bills did them a favor by making the choice at on D line for them.

14 - Panthers: WR Dwayne Jarret
Carolina will be scary at WR with Steve Smith on the other side. TE Greg Olson was a possibility here, but I don't buy it.

15 - Steelers: DE Jarvis Moss
He could replace Jerry Porter at OLB in the 3-4 or help new coach Timlin shift to a 4-3. If the Steelers grab Cato June or Lance Briggs in Free Agency, look for them to take CB Hall.

16 - Packers: RB Marshawn Lynch
The Pack get their man, this is a lock.

17 - Jaguars: S Reggie Nelson
The Jags are ecstatic that the 2nd best safetey in the draft fell this far.

18 - Bengals: CB Leon Hall*
Things may not be working well for the Bengals off the field, but on draft day the best Corner in the class drops all the way to 18 to fill their biggest need.

19 - Titans: WR Dwayne Bowe
With this pick, the Titans give Vince Young another solid weapon and so far the 4 best recievers in the draft have met expectations by going before the 20 pick. That's too bad for the Vikings who were hoping one of these guys would drop to the low 2nd round. Not to worry Viking fans, they'll still have a decent pick there.

20 - Giants: OLB Lawrence Timmons*
It took a long time for the first LB to go, but the Giants get real value here and fill a need.

21 - Broncos: DE Anthony Spencer
Good pass rusher that adds depth on a team with no real needs.

22 - Cowboys: CB Aaron Ross
The Cowboys take Longhorn Ross, thus keeping the faithful happy and allowing them to shift current CB Anthony Henry to free safety.

23 - Chiefs: OG Ben Grubbs
The Chiefs were hoping one of the Dwayne's would fall this far. They are taking the best Guard available and will gamble that decent tackle and WR will be available to them in the 2nd round.

24 - Patriots (from Seatle): ILB Patrick Willis*
It just isn't fair. New England gets Tom Brady, a dynasty, and fill their number one need with a huge value pick in Willis who should have gone 10 picks earlier. And to rub salt in our wounds, New England picks again in 4 turns.

25 - Jets: DT Justin Harrel
This is tough. I could just as easy see them taking CB Chris Houston or TE Greg Olson.

26 - Eagles: OLB Paul Posluszny
The Eagles need a WR, they always need a WR. Instead they will do what they always do and not take a WR and instead fill a need at LB.

27 - Saints: CB Chris Houston
TE Olson is a possibility here, but they will go with the more glaring need at CB.

28 - Patriots: WR Sidney Rice Jr.
Pats fill another need with one of Spurrier's gamecocks. Viking fans breath easy since another South carolina reciever won't be added to the roster.

29 - Ravens: G/T Arron Sears
This is anything but a lock. They could go with an OLB (but who?) or with pure tackle or guard. Sears is one of the better linemen in the draft and could play tackle or guard - it just so happens the Ravens need one of each.

30 - Chargers: WR Robert Meachem
A Safety was a possibility here, but Meachem represents good value at a need position.

31 - Bears: TE Greg Olsen*
The bears have to consider an OLB to replace Briggs and an OG to replace Rueben Brown, and S has been a persistent problem - but Olsen is too good to pass up here and Rex and the offense need all the help they can get. Besides, the Bears pick again in 6.

32 - Colts: CB Derrelle Revis
They need a CB and LB. It might be tough to pass on DE Charles Johnson though.

2nd Round

1 - Raiders: T Joe Staley
They need help everywhere, maybe keeping Aaron Rogers off his butt will help him get the ball to Johnson

2 - Lions: DE Charles Johnson*
Very good talent to grab at this spot and fill a need.

3 - Bucs: DT Tank Tyler
Another decent lineman available late to fill a big need.

4 - Browns: C Ryan Kalil*
Browns need a better line, and Kalil is the best Center in the draft.

5 - Bears(from Jets): OG Justin Blalock
The offense gets better, but they better hope to get some value from Briggs to fill the LB hole.

6 - Cardinals: T Tony Ugoh
Their line improves, but wish they got Joe Thomas

7 - Texans: S Michael Griffen
They'll take the longhorn, fill a need, and keep the locals happy.

8 - Dolphins: WR Craig Davis

9 - Vikings: WR Anthony Gonzalez
The pick here was between Gonzalez of Ohio St. and Steve Smith of USC. Both guys played second fiddle to greater talents, but I prefere Gonzo to Smith. Besides, the league already has one Steve Smith, how good could this one be?

10 - 49ers: ILB David Harris
Fills a need

11 - Bills: CB Eric Wright
Another need filled.

12 - Falcons: DE Quentin Moses
The troubled young man was thought to be a top 10 pick before an awful senior season. The local Falcons will take a shot and fill a need.

13 - Panthers: S Brandon Meriwether
Slightly better value at a need position, but they could have take a T.

14 - Steelers: C Samson Satele
This isn't a very sexy pick for the Steelers, but value and need combine to get the 2nd best Center in the draft.

15 - Packers: WR Steve Smith
Pack gets the last quality WR in a good class. The new RB, WR and Moss should go a long way to making Brett Favre's last year pretty good.

16 - Jaguars: OLB Jon Beason
They could have gone with a DE, but go with the higher value at LB.

17 - Bengals: DT Quinn Pitcock
This Ohio St. Product should help the Bengals in the trenches. Marvin Lewis will have a stacked defense to go with an awesome offense. Keep the boys out of jail and they are Super Bowl bound.

18 - Titans: CB Jonathan Wade
Againg I go with a local angle to fill a need.

19 - Giants: RB/FB Brian Leonard
I'm addicted to the local angle, but Leonard was instrumental in turning around Rutgers and is a NJ hero. This addition to the Giants should go along way in replacing Tiki and giving the Giants a warhorse at RB.

20 - Rams: DT Turk McBride
Rams get the last real quality DT on the board and fill a need.

21 - Cowboys: RB Kenny Irons
They could use another WR, but the herd has thinned out drastically on the board and the pending trade rumors of Julius Jones makes me believe they'll take a RB.

22 - Chiefs: T Marshal Yanda
The Chiefs continue rebuilding their line. If Yanda can step in and OG Grubbs is as good as we thing, the Chiefs O-line will quickly recover its reputation. QB was also a possibility here.

23 - Seahawks: OG Josh Beekman
They still haven't recovered from losing Steve Hutchinson. This should help.

24 - Broncos: S Eric Weddle
This Utah product wil help back up an aging secondary. Denver is hoping one of the better tackles is around in the 3rd.

25 - Eagles: WR Paul Williams
Now the Eagles take a WR! They also get the last one of note.

26 - Saints: TE Zach Miller
They passed on Greg Olson in the 1st to address the secondary. Miller will be brought in to complement an already dynamic offense.

27 - Jets: CB Josh Wilson
For a team that won so many games last year, the Jets have a lot of holes. They could have gone TE or LB here, but go with the secondary.

28 - Dolphins (from NE): QB Drew Stanton
The QB's behind Quinn and Russel haven't gotten much love, but Stanton is a gunner who should easily outperform Harrington and possibly overtake Daunte.

29 - Ravens: DE Victor Abiamiri
Not a bad haul to fill a need late in the 2nd.

30 - Chargers: OG Tim Duckworth
The Bolts replace the departed Dielman.

31 - Jets (from Bears): TE Ben Patrick
The Jets patience pays off and they get their TE.

32 - Bucs (from Indy): DE Lamar Woodley
The Bucs continue to bolster their O and D lines.

3rd Round

1 - Raiders: OG Dan Santucci
Raiders continue to rebuild their offensive line.

2 - Lions: ILB Buster Davis
The Lions will pair last year's first pick Ernie Simms with Florida St. teammate. We say this about the Lions every year, but on paper they look pretty good. Elite prospect QB, the addition of T Foster and RB Bell in a trade for Dre Bly, and now two decent picks at DE and ILB. There are still holes on the o-line and secondary, but this team seems pretty good now. Considering how weak the North is, they might grab a wild card.

3 - Browns: RB Michael Bush*
I think this is a steal in the 3rd round. Bush, Quinn, and Kalil will redefine the middle of the offense for the better. Add in Winslow and Braylon Edwards.

4 - Bucs: TE Matt Spaeth
Hey, the first Gopher finally gets off the board!

5 - Cardinals: OG Andy Alleman
Cardinals continue to bolster their line.

6 - Broncos (From Wash): T Chase Johnson
The Broncos luck holds and they get the local Wyoming product.

7 - Dolphins: T Renardo Foster
The Dolphins fill their last need. Now they can focus on pure value the rest of the draft.

8 - Vikings: CB Daymeion Hughes
This pick here means the Vikings will gamble on landing a serviceable tackle or guard on the second day. On the first day the Vikings have added a superstar RB, their #2 WR in Gonzales, and a nickel back in Hughes. This means Tarvarious Jackson will start at QB with a shaky right side of the O-Line. The Vikings will go 6-10 with this crew, get another good draft choice next year, a new coach, and will contend for the North in 2008.

However, let's say the Texans trade Carr and the 8th pick to the Vikes for the 7th pick. The Texans would take Adrian Peterson and the Vikings would take DE Jamaal Anderson. Finally with this pick, they would have taken RB Antonio Pittman instead of Hughes. Now that team lead by Carr and a pass rushing DE would finish 10-6 and get a wild card in 2007.

9 - Texans: QB Trent Edwards
The Texans are hoping Edwards will push Carr.

10 - Bills: RB Antonio Pittman
Bills get a pretty decent replacement for McGahee. Not a bad draft for the odd Bills.

11 - Falcons: DT Brandon Mebane
Atlanta really buffs up the defense with these 3 picks.

12 - 49ers: DE Tim Crowder
Another need is filled on the defense.

13 - Steelers: CB Marcus McCauley
Steelers get the last CB of note.

14 - Packers: S Josh Gattis
Packers finaly help the D

15 - Jaguars: DE Jay Moore
Jags get the Cornhusker counterweight to Adam Carriker.

(Bengals forfieted 3rd rd pick in supplemental draft)

16 - Titans: LB Stewart Bradley
Without a decent DE left, Titans take best defender on the board.

17 - Giants: T Doug Free
Giants get last decent T in the draft to fill a need.

18 - Rams: ILB Rory Johnson
The defense continues to rebuild from the Mike Martz era with 3rd defensive pick.

19 - Panthers: QB Kevin Kolb
Not much to say, but they need a backup.

20 - Chiefs: DT Ryan McBean
Chiefs take the OK St. Cowboy to add depth.

21 - Seahawks: TE Joe Newton
The Oregon St. product might help fill a hole.

22 - Broncos: RB Brandon Jackson
Another bullet in the RB revolver that is Denver.

23 - Cowboys: QB Troy Smith
It just seems like something Jerry Jones would do.

24 - Saints: ILB Brandon Siler
Saints fill their last need with decent value.

25 - Jets: LB Rufus Alexander
Yet another need filled.

26 - Eagles: S Tannard Jackson*
Very good value pick at a need position.

27 - Patriots: S Aaron Rouse
Patriots fill all their needs save CB.

28 - Bills(from Bal): QB Matt Moore

29 - Chargers: ILB Zach Diles
They need to replace Donnie Edwards.

30 - Bears: OLB Michael Okwa
This should help if Briggs flees.

31 - Colts: RB Lorenzo Booker
Decent backup RB for Addai.

Set Sail with the Vikings

2007-02-23T13:17:00.000-08:00

I predicted the Vikings would finish 4-12 last year. A new coach, a new system, a new offensive line, a failed draft and a geriatric QB spelled disaster in my eyes. The Vikes showed me by winning 6 games, but one of those was that flukey win over Carolina. I have 6 changes the Vikes must make, and if they do - they could be a 10-6 wildcard team.

1 - QB: If any of the existing trio starts for the Vikes next year, they don't have a chance for a .500 seaon. Brad is done, Bollinger is a career backup, and Tarvaris simply is not ready. Many a Viking fan holds out hope for the young QB, but my money is on bust - and at the very least he is not ready to lead a winning team.

There are two options for the Vikings to address this scenario - giving up a draft pick for David Carr or using their first pick on Brady Quinn if he falls to 7. Right now Carr seems the better value since the rumor is a 4th or 5th round pick will get him. I'd go as far as packaging a 3 and a 5 for him. The other possibility is Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn falling to 7. Some scouts are calling him the biggest fraud since Joey Harrington, thus the fall from unanimous #1 for the past 18 months - but I still believe. If Quinn is there at 7, the Vikes should take him. He is still #1 on my Viking's board and Quinn would be an amazing pick up. Outside of Carr and Quinn, I don't believe there is a reasonably decent QB available that can turn this team around.

2 - RG and RT: The right side of the line was atrocious last year. One of the moves I liked early, the trading of the 6th pick for RG Artis Hicks, ended up a disaster. Hicks played like a 6th rounder and will never start again. 2005 2nd Rounder Marcus Johnson was moved from RG to RT and didn't fare well. Injuries eventually brought in old stand by's like Rosenthall and wasted 2nd round pick Ryan Cook. I still believe Johnson can play, but I don't like him as a tackle or as a tandem of mediocrity on the right. A solid lineman next to Johnson, and a shift away from zone blocking, would probably do wonders for a guy who just has to hold his own on a talented line. So one more piece is needed.

And the piece will have to come in the draft. The free agency pool is thin, but happily for the Vikes, the O-Line talent in the draft is thick. It starts with Badger tackle Joe Thomas, but he won't fall past Arizona at 5. I have seen Penn St. tackle Levi Brown as high as the Vikes 7th, as low as 20, but recently between 9 and 12. I've got my eye on Levi with the 7th pick, but mainly I think the 2nd round is the key. Since the Vikes pick so early, they could either get the number 3-5 tackle in the draft, or the number 1-3 guard in the draft. I'm convinced there will be execellent O-line value with that pick - the only caveat is that there will also be excelent WR value there too - but that's another post.

3 - Pass rushing DE: This is frustrating for the Vikes. They used two high 1st round draft picks to get Udeze and Erasmus James. Both have spent their careers being injured and league average. There is a small hope that one of these guys will provide the solution, but I have a feeling the injuries have taken away the special sacking ability in college that made them 1st rounders. Free agency offers some hope, and the Vikes should explore it, but franchise tags have been flying onto the good DE's. The draft offers two very highly touted pass rushing DE's in Jamal Anderson and Gaines Adams. Anderson is more highly regarded and expected to go from 4-7, most likely to Arizona if they don't get Thomas, and Adams anywhere from 5-10, with most mocks putting him at 7 with the Vikes. A possible 2nd round option for the Vikes is Quentin Moses who was widely considered a top 5 guy going into his senior season, but he stunck and is now considered a low 1st round choice. He might be there in the 2nd.

4 - WR and WR
I for one don't put much stock in having great WR's, but clearly the Vikes recievers stink out loud and replacements are needed. The hope of getting a game changing reciever are slight, although I do believe there are 2 or 3 in this draft. That's saying something, when there are only about 6 game changing WR's in the league. I also find it interesting that those game changers are 50-50 when it comes to 1st or 2nd round selections in the draft. And let's not neglect the high number of top 10 busts in recent years (Peter Warrick - 3rd, Carlos Rogers - 3rd, Troy Williamson - 7, Mike Williams - 10).

The free agency market for WR's is considered soft, but a good number of them represent a significant upgrade over the curret Viking crop. I suggest getting one of the higher profile ones. The draft has alot of good WR's, but unless Calvin Johnson drops to 7, which is highly unlikely with most mock drafts putting him 1st to 4th, I don't think the Vikes will get a value pick in the 1st round. In fact, I will be sorely dissappointed if the 7th pick is used on Ted Ginn Jr. or Dwayne Jarret. Now if the Vikes were able to trade down to 15, I think there are 3 or 4 good options there, and that there will still be 1 or 2 decent value picks at WR in the early 2nd round. I'm guessing there are a number of sleepers in later rounds as well, but I am thinking the Vikes should grab one WR in free agency, and another on the first day of the draft.

5 - RB
Chester Taylor had a good year, but he broke down. He doesn't seem to have the frame to withstand a full season. However, this is the last position I address for a reason. Between Taylor and Mewelde Moore, the Vikes should be ok at RB. Unfortunately, Childress has no love for Moore and won't use him. This team needs a backup RB the coach can trust, or needs to get a frontline stud. Free agency offers a few decent backup options, and the draft offers one stud in Adrian Peterson who could go from 2 to 8. If Peterson is available at 7, the Vikes should either take him or think about trading the pick. I believe there is enough demand for Peterson that a team will give their mid to late 1st round and 2nd pick to get him. A deal like that could let the Vikes stock up on O-Line and WR (two of one, and one of the other in the first two rounds). However, if the Vikings take Peterson, I believe they will be very happy with their choice.

6-Coaching - Chilly lost his team last year, and failed to implement a system that matches his player's skill. That's not an uncommon problem for a new coach. A good coach will generally substitute his personel to fit his system over a year, or change his system. The biggest incongruity with the Vikings is the use of zone blocking when you have big maulers like Birk, Hutch, and Marcus Johnson. I believe in a man blocking system these guys will excel, much like Philly did after Childress left. I fear that Childress thinks zone blocking is "smarter" than man blocking, and thus his arrogance will cloud his judgement - just as it did in the draft last year.

For the Vikings, the Future is now...

2007-02-15T15:35:00.000-08:00

...especially if Childress is to keep his job. After one year of coaching, he took a 9-7 playoff team down to 6-10, had a slipshod draft, lost his players at the end of the year, and used a zone blocking scheme. This last is unforgivable. Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie are the best, big, bruisers in the league. They don't need a "scheme" to knock a guy on his butt. Little, speedy guys in Denver need a scheme. Cirumstantional evidence out of Philly wasn't good either. Philly stopped using Chilly's scheme and the O-liner underwent a renaissance. And for the first time Andy Reid let his Offensive Coordinator call plays, something Chilly was never allowed to do.

This next year is make or break, and considering Chilly's arrogance, my money is on Break.

EOY 2006 Draft Comparison

2007-01-07T11:34:00.000-08:00

A couple of posts lower I prognosticated about the picks I would have made vs. Team Childress and the Vikings. I think I mentioned I'd like 5 years to evaluate, but after one season there is some decent basis for Analysis. So pick by pick, here we go...

Round 1: Childress - LB Chad Greenway, DPW - OT Winston Justice
Sadly, Greenway went down in the pre-season and was lost for the year. The silver lining, Napleon Harris and EJ Henderson emerged as decent LB for the Vikes excellent Defense. Greenway should be around next year and will improve the LB corp by displacing Harris or allowing 3-4 schemes (not likely).

My guy Justice ended up as a back up in Philadelphia who had a resurgence at the Offensive line. The line stunk the previous year and the Eagles took two OLs in the draft. However, the vets rebounded and both guys ended up being redshirted. When the Eagles took Justice in the 2nd round, it was as a future replacement for aging vet Thomas, and he is expected to start next year. Some have theroized that the Eagle O-line play improved because Childress left and took his zone blocking scheme with him and allowed the big Eagle line to just hit guys. The vikings have a big line too, and did very poorly in the zone blocking scheme. What if the Vikes had Justice? He would have been at RT all year instead of the mish-mash of Johnson, Rosenthiel, and Cook. If he could protect Lienart backside at USC, he we in a good position to protect Brad Johnson's frontside.

Overall - slight nod to me.

1st Pick, Round 2: Childress - CB Cedrick Griffen, DPW ILB Abdul Hodge
This was easily Chili's best and most productive use of a draft pick. Griffen started the year as a nickel back and eventually replaced the ineffective Fred Smoot. He wasn't much better than Smoot, but at least he has upside and was good enough take over when the time came.

Hodge had an up and down year. He recieved rave reviews out of the Packer's training camp, got injured, returned a TD against the Vikings, then let Shaun Alexander run for over 200 in his only start and ended the year on the inactive list. If he had been a Viking, he would have competed with EJ for the ILB position, and would have lost.
Chili with a clear win.

2nd Pick, Round 2: Childress - C Ryan Cook, DPW CB Ashton Youboty
Cook was an awful pick. He played a few games at RT late in the season and stunk. Cook just doesn't have NFL ability, just NFL size.

Youboty was shaky for Buffalo. He started slow and ended the season playing special teams and on the scout team, but his coaches were high on him as the season progressed. I must admit I would have take Youboty over Griffen, and would have been wrong. If the Vikes had Youboty, Fred Smoot might still be starting, but maybe not.
DPW with a clear win

3rd Round Picks: Childress - QB Tarvarious Jackson (traded both 3rd rounders for him), DPW - WR Maurice Stovall, QB Omar Jacobs
When Chili drafted Jackson, he stated he was a 3 year project. After watching Jackson play a couple of games, Chili was right. Jackson was bad, but I think it too early to judge this pick.

Maurice Stovall ended the season as a starter for the Bucs after injuries claimed Clayton. He made some big catches and even bigger blocks in the run game. Omar Jacobs is summed up best by Pittsburgh blogger www.sportocracy.com, "They gave up on Omar Jacobs after blowing a 5th round choice on him last year." Had my scenario played out, the Vikings would have at least one decent starting WR and not QB of the future to muddle the 2007 free agent/draft picture.
Advantage DPW, big time.

4th Round Picks: Childress - DE Ray Edwards, DPW - S Greg Blue
Edwards showed some flash at DE, but not enough to stop the search for a pass rushing end the Vikes desperately need. Ended the season as a backup, will be a back up next year as well.

Blue started the first game for the delinquent Dwight Smith who was being punished and did a good job, but not good enough to displace Smith. Blue will continue to be a solid backup and may start in the future. Since I took Blue in the 4th and Chili gets him in the 5th...
Chili wins.

5th Round Picks: Childress - S Greg Blue, DPW DE Mark Anderson
Good value pick for Blue, but...

Anderson was awesome for the Bears. He lead all rookies with 12 sacks as a backup and starter when Tommie Harris went down. Had the vikes taken him, there would be no talk of needing a pass rushing DE in the off season and considering the Vikes lead the league in Pass Attempts Against, Anderson could have had 20 sacks! Clearly...
A BIG win for DPW.

6th Round picks: Childress - (trade for G Artiss Hicks), DPW - C Greg Eslinger
I loved this move when Chili made it, but Hicks ended up being awful at RG.

Eslinger was taken by the Broncos, and everybody knew he would. He was a backup and never played behind Tom Nalen, and probably wouldn't have played behind Matt Birk. But Birk was coming off an injury and the Vikes moved to zone blocking, exactly why Eslinger was coveted by the Broncos.
Essentially a wash, but I'd rather have Eslinger than Hicks today.

Overall, I win the draft largely on the strength of Mark Anderson and having a stable RT in Justice. I like Greenway and Griffen, but they just don't stack up.

Another chance to not read me...

2006-07-05T19:02:00.000-07:00

I have joined a group Twins blog with my roommate and potentially a few other recruits. You can catch the latest at http://righthandedheat.blogspot.com/

I actually have a post up now...

Accountability

2006-05-04T11:27:00.000-07:00

A wise non-blogger recently postulated that resume puffing Viking VP of Player personnel Fran Foley may have been a Packer spy sent to infiltrate the Viking war room. Less than a week after the draft, where Foley had final authority in the draft room and managed to squander 3 of the Vikings first day picks on scrubs who will never play in the NFL - Foley got canned.

This is good news for the Vikings, but it also meant another year of follies for the Draft. In 2005 the Vikings first three picks were WR Troy Williamson at #7 (backup WR), DE Erasmus James (backup DE), and G Marcus Johnson (backup OL) and no one else of note. The Williamson pick was especially bad. In 2004 the Vikes selected another group of backups - DE Udeze (mostly hurt), DE Darian Scott, LB Dontarrius Thomas and RB Mewelde Moore. These guys have provided depth but have largely failed as starters. In 2003 and 2002 the Vikings missed their first pick! And thank goodness they did because the only bona fide starters the Vikings have on their teams were the missed leftovers - T Bryant Mckinnie in 2002 and DT Kevin Williams in 2003. To be fair, Nate Burleson was taken in 2003 and gave the Vikes one good year before signing big with Seattle, and in 2002 4th rounder Brian Williams will be a starter for Jacksonville after backing up Smoot nicely last year.

I'm glad that Zygi isn't so stubborn as to stick with a disaster like Foley, but Foley was as much a reach for his position as was C Ryan Cook in the second round. The Vikings need a GM, and they need one badly. This triangle of authority, draft by committee, circus of errors needs to end. There is plenty of outstanding young talent in the league. Zygi should be looking for the next Theo Epstein to run his team - not the next new wave organizational chart.

2006 Viking Draft Dust Up

2006-05-01T23:10:00.000-07:00

The new powers at Winter Park remind me alot of the old powers at Winter Park. They come on strong and then take a knee. To this group's credit, they bounced back at the very end.

The Vikes are getting a lot of heat for not trading up to grab Cutler. If they were going to trade up I say they should have gone after Leinart when he fell to Buffalo, but no one knew Buffalo was going to waste their pick on a Safety they could have gotten at #17. So I'll give the Vikes a pass here. Trades are fun to talk about, but hard to analyze if they that don't happen.

At #17 the Vikes did the right thing and took LB Chad Greenway. Bravo!

In the second round I think they reached for CB Cedrick Griffin. I figured him for a 3rd rounder and with Ashton Youboty sitll on the board, I would have liked him - or G Max Jean-Gilles or ILB Abdul Hodge. I think Griffin will make a fine Nickel back and with any luck replace Smoot in a year or so. Not a bad pick, but not great.

When their next second rounder came up 3 spots later, the 3 players I mentioned abover were still available. And they took C Ryan Cook. Here is a guy who is 6'7" and can't move his feet. He'll be lucky to make the practice squad and there was a good chance this guy wouldn't be drafted at all. What a waste.

The vikes later traded both 3rd rounders to get a late 2nd round pick where they took Javerious Jackson. Jackson could have been had in the 5th round - so of course the vikings used TWO 3rd draft picks to get him. Dumb.

The 4th round pick was wasted on DE Ray Edwards from Purdue. Edwards will flame out and highly rated Alabama DE Mark Anderson was still on the board. 3rd pick in a row wasted.

The 5th pick was spent on S Greg Blue. This was actually a good pick and Blue will make the team as a Dime package player and reasonable backup to our aging safties. This was a huge value pick for a guy who will actually play in the NFL.

The 6th pick was traded to Philadelphia for starting G Artis Jenks. Bravo. 6th picks rarely generate NFL starters and now the Vikes get a guy Childress KNOWS is an upgrade over Johnson and Liewinski. So all in all, The vikes first 2 and last 2 picks will generate NFL players - Two DB backups, One LB starter, and one OL starter.

Overall grade - C

Now if I had been in command on Draft day, here is what the Viking's would have brought in. My only rule is I have to use the picks the Vikes owned the day before the draft and no trades! I won't pretend to know what other teams would give up, but I do know where players went.

Round 1 - OT USC Winston Justice (went to Philly in early round 2)
Round 2 (pick 1) - ILB Iowa Abdul Hodge (went to GB early round 3)
Round 2 (pick 2) - CB Ohio State Ashton Youboty (went to Buffalo early round 3)
Round 3 (pick 1) - WR Notre Dame Maurice Stovall (went to TB 7 picks later in round 3)
Round 3 (pick 2) - QB Omar Jacobs Bowling Green (went to Pitts in round 5) [If I wanted to cheat and pretend I *knew* Jacobs was going in round 5, I would have taken USC S Darnell Bing who goes early in round 4 to Oakland]
Round 4 - S Georgia Greg Blue (went to Vikings in Round 5 - good job Childress!)
Round 5 - DE Alabama Mark Anderson (went round 5 to Chicago 10 picks later)
Round 6 - C Minnesota Greg Eslinger (went to Denver in round six, 13 picks after Vikings)

In 5 years I would love to compare my draft vs. Childress. I believe I give the vikings their starting RT for the future in Justice, a solid ILB starter in Hodge, a fine possesion receiver in Stoval who would push Williamson for the #2 spot, a nickel back and future starting CB in Youboty, a better QB project in Jacobs, A dime back in blue (automatic wash since the vikes did take him), a potential starter at DE in Anderson - and I'll just bet that Eslinger is a starting center five years from now.

My reputation as a drafter is on the line...

2006 NFL Mock Draft

2006-04-27T14:03:00.000-07:00

First off, we wake up Saturday morning to hear about a complex 4 team trade involving 5 first round picks and an early 2nd rounder.

Houston gives up their number one pick to San Francisco for Jets #4 and #35 picks.
New Orleans gives up #2 pick to New York Jets for San Frans #6 and #22 picks.
San Fran gives up #6 and #22 picks for Texas #1 pick.
Jets give up #4 and #35 for New Orlean's #2 pick.

1 - San Fran takes RB Reggie Bush
Sure it cost them two 1st round picks, but there other options were weak. A RB like Bush will have far more impact than a TE like Davis. SF now has their Aikman and Emmet...

2 - NY Jets take QB Matt Leinart
Jets have a late 1st round pick, so giving up their early second to grab Leinart doesn't sting as much - and they get a bona fide QB of the future. Patrick Ramsey is worthless and Pennington was always suspect - and is now injury plagued. This is a huge move for the new coaching staff and a great way to start the honeymoon with fickle NY fans. They also get the only sure thing QB in the draft.

3 - Tennessee takes QB Vince Young
Goodbye Steve McNair and Management sits idly by while the other teams make their moves. Fischer and Chow are hating life as their boy Leinart goes to NY and their job security is smoked. Management gets their man and will soon get a new coach. BTW, Young will be a bust as a QB, but make a decent WR for another team.

4 - Houston takes OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson
With QB Carr and RB Dominack Davis, having the number 1 spot did Houston no good. But getting another early second rounder and the fourth pick will allow Houston to address their real weakness - Offensive line. Ferguson is the first block to build around. By the time day one of the draft is over, new coach Gary Kubiak may have the best O-line in the AFC.

5 - Green Bay takes TE Vernon Davis
Passing on DE Super Mario was tough, but Favre needs a real weapon, and a 6-5 TE who runs a 4.38 - 40 is that. Buh-bye Bubba, there is a new sheriff in town.

6 - New Orleans takes LB AJ Hawk
Similiar situation to Houston. They have their QB in Brees and RB in Deuce. They also are happy with their in house options at OT, so Ferguson wasn't needed and even though they love Mario the Saints are stacked at DE. They needed a LB and #2 was just too early for Hawk. Now with the #22 pick as well, the Saints are set.

7 - Oakland takes DE Mario Williams
What a gift! This is the best defensive player on the board. They really wanted Young, but are pleased to have Mario. They even luck out since Young will be a bust.

8 - Buffalo takes OT Winston Justice
Buffalo's offensive line was little more than journeymen last year. They get an awesome talent who will anchor them for years at LT.

9 - Detroit Takes QB Cutler
They have to. Their other QB's are unrecognizable. Cutler will bring the leadership and gunslinging arm all those #1 WR's need.

10 - Arizona takes S Micheal Huff
Denny gets the best Safety on the board. He loves Sims, but Huff is just too darn good to pass up.

11 - St. Louis takes LB Chad Greenway
The Rams have always liked Greenway and the pick makes a lot of sense for them. They need a play making LB and Greenway fits the bill. The vikes groan in agony as they pray LB Sims drops down to them...

12 - Cleveland takes DT Broderick Bunkley
Perfect fit for Romeo's 3-4. This is an easy pick for the Browns.

13 - Baltimore takes DT Haloti Ngata
Brian Billick couldn't be happier. Since the Goose retired O-lines have been able to avoid double teaming the Ravens DT's and put a body on Ray Lewis. This has hurt Lewis' health and prevented him from running free towards the backs. Ngata will return Lewis to his former glory.

14 - Philadelphia takes WR Chad Jackson
Philly takes a hard look at LB Ernie Sims, but in the end this team needs weapons for McNabb. Westbrook and the scrubs at WR just aren't cutting it. Jackson gives McNabb a sure handed receiver and a real offensive option.

15 - Denver takes WR Santonio Holmes
Shanahan has a decent D but his WR are getting old. He will also address RB early in the second round. Broncos really wanted Jackson, but Holmes is a good fall back.

16 - Miami takes CB Jimmy Williams
Jimmy is a trouble maker... in Blacksburg, VA. There is NOTHING in Blacksburg, VA and it takes hours to get anywhere. How he will fare on Miami Beach - I'm guessing he'll be playing in Canada with Ricky Williams at some point in his career. That said, he is the most talented CB on the board.

17 - Minnesota takes LB Ernie Sims
Somehow, someway, the Dolphins and Eagles passed on the Vikes favored choice for LB. Sims is perfect for the cover 2 and puts Napoleon on the bench. His 5 concussions are a concern - as much for him as the backs he destroys with his collisions.

18 - Dallas takes S Donte Whitner
Now the Boys have two stud safeties in Roy Williams and Whitner.

19 - San Diego takes CB Tye Hill
The Charges hope that Hill, who has the least question marks but not the highest ceiling of the DB's - will be the safe pick who helps stabilize the shaky secondary.

20 - Kansas City takes CB Antonio Cromartie
Cromartie has the highest ceiling but is raw. The Chiefs get a great athlete and fill an immediate need on D.

21 - New England takes DE Kamerion Wimbley
The Pats take this tweener who will probably play LB in the NFL. Wimbley could be the Shawme Merriam of this year's draft and is a value pick at 21.

22 - New Orleans (from San Fran) takes CB Jonathan Joseph
The Saints addition of Joseph and Hawk makes for a fierce defense combined with their deep D-line. They have turned their #2 pick into two impact starting players.

23 - Tampa Bay takes OT Eric Winston
Gruden could have gone a few different ways, but is pretty set everywhere. He goes with need and takes Hurricane Winston to join Kenyatta Walker as a tackle and protect Sims and open holes for Cadillac.

24 - Cincinatti takes DE Manny Lawson
Marvin gets a great pass rusher to add to his D. Probably greater need in the secondary, but Lawson is simply too good to pass up.

25 - New York Giants take OLB Bobby Carpenter
With Carpenter and the addition of Arrington in Free Agency, the G-men will finally have a decent LB corps to back up a dangerous D-Line.

26 - Chicago Bears take CB Ashton Youboty
The Bears need another CB and Ashton is the best on the board and still 1st round talent. He should help a dominate Bears defense get even better. As for the anemic offense, there simply aren't any decent options to improve.

27 - Carolina takes FS James Allen
The Panthers are pleased to put Allen next to Donavin Darius and shore up the secondary. The talk of another RB is silly - DeShaun will carry the load.

28 - Jacksonville takes RB Deangelo Willams
The Jags days of relying on unreliable Freddie Taylor are over. Taylor can take on a role as a 3rd down, late game back while Williams provides a versatile tool for the Leftwhich lead offense.

29 - NY Jets take OT Marcus McNeil
With Leinart in tow, the Jets now need to protect him for future years. They probably won't win right away, but at least they reduce the bruising and swelling of their Namath of the future. McNeil will do the trick.

30 - Indy takes RB Laurence Maroney
The colts are happy Maroney is right where they need him. Maroney will do fine in Indy, but mainly because the defense will key on Manning.

31 - Seattle takes CB Kelly Jennings
The seahags would like to get a G here to replace Hutchinson, but will take their chances in the second round. CB is just more urgent.

32 - Pittsburgh takes WR Sinorice Moss
Rothlisumthin and Hines Ward need another option. The Steelers are deep at RB with Parker and Duce Staley despite Betis' retirement. Moss helps balance the offense for the world champs.

SECOND ROUND

1 - Houston takes C Nick Mangold
The reconstruction of the O-line continues. So far they have the best Tackle and now the best center in the draft.

2 - New Orleans takes OT Andrew Whitworth
The Saints got to upgrade the D with their first two picks, now they solidify their line and placate the Tiger faithful by taking LSU big body Whitworth.

3 - Houston (from Jets) takes G Max Jean-Gilles
The Texans transformation is complete. With 355 G Jean-Gilles, Houston now owns the best G, C and T in the draft. The O-line is a joke no more and David Carr will finally get to spend a season upright. Let's hope he's not too shell shocked.

4 - Green Bay takes LB Dameco Ryans
Ryans is the best LB left and the Pack needs D. Ryans didn't do well in the combine but was a stud at Alabama. He'll be good.

5 - Denver takes RB LenDale White
With White and WR Holmes in the fold, the Bronco's offense should flourish. White will recover and be a dominant back.

6 - Oakland takes DT Gabe Watson
Oakland gets a big guy to line up next to Super Mario. I pity the AFC O-lines that face this twice a year.

7 - Tennessee takes ILB D'Qwell Jackson
The Titans have had their eye on Jackson all along and get their man.

8 - Detroit takes S Darnell Bing
Fills one of a thousand needs in Detroit and is best player available.

9 - ARizona takes TE Leonard Pope
Denny gets a great bargain and fills a need. Now Warner has many weapons to choose from.

10 - Buffalo takes DT John McCargo
Bill need Offensive and Defensive Tackles. They are sore that the missed out on Watson, but McCargo fits the bills.

11 - Cleveland takes DE Mathias Kiwanuka
The Browns significantly upgrade their D-line with their first two picks.

12 - Baltimore takes WR Demetrius Williams
Billick needs weapons for his stinky offense. He got his big DT in the first, that should be enough to recharge his D.

13 - Philadelphia takes RB Joseph Addai
The Eagles get two legitimate offensive tools to help McNabb.

14 - St. Louis takes S Danial Bullucks
The Rams now have two quality starters on D - things are looking up.

15 - Atlanta takes ILB Abdul Hodge
The Falcons screw the Vikes again by getting the last quality ILB.

16 - Minnesota takes G Davin Joseph
This guy from Oklahoma has the footwork to play RT or be a great pulling guard. The O-line will thrive for years - especially if Marcus Johnson can emerge in either RG or RT position.

17 - Dallas takes G Tatsui Lutsui
They have to replace Larry Allen somehow.

18 - San Diego takes WR Maurice Stovall
Philip Rivers needs as much help as possible...

19 - Minnesota takes CB Cedric Griffin
Griffin gives the Vikes the nickel back they need. Not a bad first three picks - the OLine is solidified, they get a real player at LB, and they replace Brian Williams.

20 - New England takes S Ko Simpson
Defense continues to improve.

21 - Washington takes CB Richard Marshall
Redskins need a nickel back

22 - Kansas City takes DE Mark Anderson
The Chiefs get great value here.

23 - Cincinatti takes TE Mercedes Lewis
Lewis gambles and waits and still fills his only offensive need.

24 - New York Giants take DE Tamba Hall
Giants pleased to add depth with this value pick.

25 - Chicago takes TE Anthony Fasano
They really wanted Lewis or Pope, but will make the Irish faithful happy and upgrade at TE by taking Fasano. This is the only reasonable way for the Bears to improve their offense.

26 - Carolina takes OLB Rocky McIntosh
They fill yet another need on D.

27 - Tampa Bay takes WR Derek Hagan
More weapans for Simms and Gruden.

28 - Jacksonville takes S Greg Blue

29 - Denver takes TE Joe Klopfenstein
A new TE, WR and RB. Wow.

30 - Indy takes DE Daryl Tapp

31 - Seattle takes G Charles Spencer
Seahags get a great value replacement for Hutchinson

32 - Pittsburgh takes ILB Gerris Wilkinson
This is a value pick that bolsters the D.

Vikings and Draft Day

2006-04-27T11:21:00.000-07:00

I love the draft! I love it so much I'm willing to give the vikings free advice on how they should improve their team through it. The vikes have 5 first day picks, one in the first round and two in the second and third. First a look at their needs.

QB - Brad Johnson is the best and only available option. The only QB in the draft even remotely ready to start in Leinart and there is no chance the Vikes can get him. No matter who they draft or what happens with future cuts - Johnson is the starter for this year. Here's the problem, if Johnson goes down - there is nothing behind him and no solution for next year. Need level - high but not urgent

RB - They all suck. Except for Tony Richardson who is one of the league's premiere FBs. Here's the thing, a good offensive line would make any one of the Vikes RB a 1000 yarder. So even though the RB's suck, they are a low priority. Need level - moderate,

WR - They all suck slightly less than the RB's. Last year's pick of Troy Williamson with the 7th overall pick was possibly the 7th dumbest move of all time. Marucs Robinson and Travis Taylor provide adequacity while Koren Robinson is a real stud. The Vikes could use another impact reciever - either through the draft or the emergence of Williamson. Vikes are good at TE with Wiggins and Kleinsasser. Need level - low

Offensive Line - Gotta love the left side with Mckinney, Hutch and Birk! The right side though - yuck. OT Rosenthal, OG Liwienski and last year's 2nd round OG bust Marcus Johnson who also played RT. Reminds me of a joke - a jew, a pollack and a... never mind. The right side is awful, but there is some hope Johnson will emerge to hold down one of those two right spots. Need Level - high

DL - This is the best part of the team with the pro-bowler ability Williamseses at DT and a healthy Udeze and emerging Erasmus James at DE. They even have decent depth. Unless a real gem falls on the first day to #17, I would shocked if a DE or DT was picked with the first 5 picks.

LB - These guys, outside of free agent Ben Leber, are terrible. EJ Hederson and Napoleon Harris are barely practice squad reserves - yet are scheduled to start. Need Level is high, urgent, and numerous.

DB - A very solid core with Winfield and Smoot at CB and Sharper and recent addition Tank Williams at Safety. Depth is a real concern as is a future replacement for Sharper. Need level is moderate

K/P - Fine here with Green Bay's old kicker and the rookie stud punter from last year. Need level - non-existent

Bill's Board for the Vikings 1st round pick at #17
1 - QB Jay Cutler
2 - OT Winston Justice
3 - OLB Chad Greenway
4 - OLB Ernie Sims
5 - Trade Down
6 - OLB Bobby Carpent or DE Kimerian Wimbley

If somehow Cutler falls to 17 - take him! But please, do not trade more than a 3rd round pick or less to move up. Here's why - Cutler won't be ready to play this year, so even if you get him he's not an adequate backup. There will be plenty of free agent QB's next year - including Matt Schaub who will be available for a song and a 3rd round pick. The vikes - if 38 year old QB Brad Johnson goes down combined with a team adjusting to a new head coach, an offensive and defensive scheme, has much potential for a REALLY good draft pick next year. My guess is Cutler will be long gone and these point are (s)moot.

Winston Justice is a stud tackle from USC. He too will likely be gone in the top 10, and if not then, Baltimore at 14 is a near lock to take him. But if he does fall, the Vikes O-line could be the best in the league allowing the team to put all the fragile 40 year old QB's and weak sister RB's they want in the back field and still be sucesful.

I'll address both LB's - Both are great. Pundits say Sims will be the better fit for the new cover 2 D since he is faster. Greenway is bigger and was a stud down in Iowa. I take Greenway over Sims since Sims has had 5 concussions - which tells you something about his motor and hitting ability. Sims is probably the better fit, but the concussions scare me. If I have my choice, I take Greenway, but no way I pass on Sims if Greenway's not there. Both guys could be gone. Arizona, Mianmi, Philly, and St. Louis have shown interest in these guys. If one doesn't fall to 17, the Vikes will be very disappointed, and thus I suggest...

They move down. The Jets at 29 and #3 in the 2nd would be a nice trading partner - although picking up an early 2nd and a 3rd round pick is more likely. Who they could take will be addressed next.

Taking Bobby Carpenter at 17 is just too soon - and he's a significant step down from Sims and Greenway - and also played with AJ Hawk who's going top 5. I put in DE Kamerion Wimbley because he is a tweener who would likely play LB. I really don't like this scenario which probably has a 25% chance of happening.

Bill's Second Round Board - The Vikes pick at 16 and 19 in the 2nd round

* - OT Eric Winston/OT Marcus McNeil
1 - G Max Jean - Gilles/G Davin Joseph
2 - ILB Abdul Hodge/D'Qwell Jackson
3 - RB Joseph Addai
4 - FS Danial Bullucks/Ko Simpson
5 - WR Maurice Stovall

The * pick is if the Vikings trade down and get an early second rounder. If Eric Winston from Miami is still there they should grab him and have all Hurricane bookends with Mckinney. At RT, Winston should be just fine and has the ability to move to LT if McKinney walks or goes down. McNeil is a huge dude at 332 and his stock is rising. Either guy would be great - and heavens be praised if either of these potential first rounders drops to the Vikes real picks - but not bloody well likely.

Most likely the Vikes won't get an OT in this draft. When their picks at 16 and 19 in the second show up I would love to see them get one of the premiere guards. Jean-Gilles has a great name and is huge at 355! He is also quick off the snap and punishes defenders. It would be awesome to have him at RG destroying the DT while Birk and Hutch pivot around him on trap and sweep plays. At 355 he could easily seal the back side and take on the Gilbert Brown/Pat Williams type big bodies. But there is a good chance Jean-Gilles will be taken late first round or early 2nd by the Packers whose interior linemen suck.

Davin Joseph out of Oklahoma is smaller at 310 and more nimble. He has the footwork to play RT if need be but would also be a good pulling guard. This would allow the vikings to pivot left or right with Joseph and Hutch at guard - which is an advantage over jean-gilles. If either of these guys is available for the Vikes in the second - booya! The vikes will have 4 awesome linemen AND decent depth. With any luck Marcus Johnson will find him self and be a decent RT or RG and Joseph can move to RT (another example of the flexibility advantage of Joseph over Jean-Gilles). At this point, having one mediocre lineman won't matter so much.

If fate smiles on the vikes, they will have a new starting guard with their 16th pick and will have either Hodge or Jackson to choose from at 19 to be their new ILB. This teamed with free agent Leber and hopefully the 1st round pick of Sims or Greenway means EJ Henderson and Napolean become the special team, mop up, bench riding hacks they are. All of a sudden, the Vikes have a great starting D (with depth a concern).

RB - Joseph Addai is not likely to fall to the Vikes second round picks. But if all the guys I mentioned are gone, then it is possible he did. This guy might go as high as 27th in the first round and his stock is rising. I don't like Maroney (he's soft and cherry picked against bad teams with an awesome line), Williams (too small)or LenDale White (too weird). That being said, if one is available way down here, he becomes a good value pick. But given my drothers, I think Addai is the way to go and will flourish with the Vikes as a power runner. The rest of the RB field stinks as well. I'll be pissed if the Vikes pick up an RB on the first day unless a guy really falls. The quality just isn't there.

FS Bullocks from Nebraska and Gamecock Simpson would challenge Williams and Sharper for a starting job and would give the Vikings much needed DB depth. Now if one of the top 5 Corners is still floating out there, take him - but those guys should be long gone. I'll take Bullucks first (he's bigger) but either guy is fine. Hopefully the Vikes don't have to resort to a FS here, because there is also decent talent in the 3rd round.

WR - I nearly put Maurice ahead of the safeties, but that would be my Notre Dame homerism talking. Maurice is a big dude at 6-5 and has slimmed DOWN to 220. He's not exactly a west coast type of reciever, although he was awesome in Charlie Weiss' offense last year (Brady Quinn and hopefully future Vikes QB was also part of that). I don't like any of the WR's out there. Outside of Maurice or the top two guys Jackson and Holmes falling out of the 1st round - I'll be sore if the vikes go with a WR before their last pick of the 3rd round.

Bill's 3rd round Board - Vikes pick 19th and 31st in 3rd round

If anyone I've mentioned is still around in the 3rd - take him (unless the Vikes already got one at the position (don't need G jean-Gilles AND G Joseph)

Otherwise here is my board:

G - Deuce Lutui
OT - Ryan O'Callaghan
CB Kelly Jennings/Cedric Griffin
S - Greg Blue
OLB - Rocky McIntosh
QB Whitehurst/Jacobs/Croyle/Clemons

They should only draft Deuce if they don't get Joseph or Jean-Gilles.

Ryan O'Callaghan would be a very interesting pick. He has a lot of question marks, but the dude is 6-7 363! If he got his technique down, good night. Probably won't be available though.

If either top 10 CB Jennings from Miami or Griffin from Texas is available with the first pick in the 3rd (and a G was taken earlier) get the guy to be your nickel and give the DB's much needed depth. Both guys took on the best recievers in very good conferences and are ready to play in the NFL.

Assuming the Vikes got their 2 LB's earlier, take Blue. He is a second round talent who is going to get squeezed to the 3rd round. Would be a great addition to the DB's.

If the Vikes don't get their LB's earlier, jump McIntosh ahead of Blue. If Blue isn't there go ahead and take McIntosh with that first third round pick. The vikes only have their starters - they still need depth at LB.

With the 3rd to last pick in the 3rd round courtesy of the Seahawks stealing away Burleson - the Vikes should take a flyer on a QB (assuming Cutler not picked earlier - or that this pick was traded to move up to get Cutler). One of these guys will still be around here - I don't know who. Even if everyone is there I don't know who to take. My guess is one will become an NFL starting QB while the others bust or become career backups. If I had the choice I'd take Whitehurst.

This is my ideal Vike draft outcome:
1st round - LB Chad Greenway (we'll address QB next year)
2nd Round - G Max Jean-Gilles
2nd Round - ILB Abdul Hodge (two Iowa guys at LB...)
3rd Round - CB Cedric Griffin
3rd Round - QB Charlie Whitehurst (or whoever)

On the second day I would like to see the Vikes grab another LB, a DB and WR. BUT...
The word is that only the Broncos have any interest in Gopher center Greg Eslinger. Eslinger is small at 292, but he is fast and smart and won all sorts of awards for good reason. If the Bronco's don't take Eslinger in the 3rd, I'd like to see the Vikes make a move to jump Denver in the 4th and steal him. Eslinger won't start for the Vikes - Birk is bigger, mobile - and I will swallow my pride and admit that Harvard grad Birk is probably smarter than UMN grad Eslinger. However, we saw what life was like without a smart and mobile Center last year. Eslinger will be an awesome insurance policy and center for the future.

2006-04-05T12:59:00.000-07:00

Lunch with Jonah

2006-01-31T13:21:00.000-08:00

One of the cool things about being "National Director", is that when you bring in cool speakers like Jonah Goldberg you get to drive them around and have lunch with them. Unfortunately for the rest of you, you'll have to settle for reading his column or coming to his speech tonight at 7:00 in Wiley 125 at the U of MN. Or, you can catch him at Grainger Hall at the Univesity of Wisconsin tomorrow at 7PM.

Somehow every conservtive and their brother is hosting an event tonight. Dinesh D'Souza is speaking at St. John's tonight. In a way this is creepy. Jonah was in Minnesota speaking in front of Carlton College last month. At the same time, Dinesh was speaking at St. Olaf. Jonah is considering a restraining order.

Somewhere downtown Micheal Medved will be giving a speech on Minnesota politics in 2006. We spent most of the lunch trying to figure out what Micheal Medved knows about contemporary Minnesota politics. The only thing we could come up with was nothing. So don't go to that event.

And of course later tonight W will be giving the State of the Union. Yes the speech is important. Yes this could lead to a turnaround for a batterred president and yes I want to see Bush do well and take credit for getting Alito on the Court. But... do I really have to watch him talk? It really is the hardest thing to do. Besides, our event will be officially done before the SOTU. So if you'd rather hear the president than drink with us at Sterb's, then by all means.

And yes Geoff, I did clean out my car before picking him up.

Celtic Tribes

2006-01-30T12:53:00.000-08:00

I think there are about 4 people who still check my blog after about... oh... 3 months of silence. For the four of you - a special announcement!

Jonah Goldberg of National Review will be giving a presentation at the U of M Tuesday night at 7PM. He will be speaking on the twin disasters of Hurricane Katrina and the government's response.

The event will be held in Wiley 125 on the west bank - park at the Law school parking lot and attendance is free. We'll be going to Stub and Herbs afterwards.

This event is sponsored by CFACT - just like last year. My favorite line from last year's event was, "Libertarians are like the Celtic tribes in England. They are a wonderful thing to unleash upon your enemies, but you don't want one sitting on the throne."

Hope to see you there.

No Whammies...

2005-11-07T22:14:00.000-08:00

Franklin has a fun game!

> Find the France story on the CNN page. C’mon. I dare ya.
>
>
>
> http://www.foxnews.com/
>
>
> http://www.cnn.com
>

Answers:

Fox: There it is, right in the middle with all the burning.

CNN: Scroll down to World (it's below all the healines and pictures.) Click on section page (it is in light great just below "world"- very hard to see). Now look left of the pictures and headlines under "more news' and you'll find the headline listed 4th out of 5. Yay! You did it!

Schadenfreude

2005-11-03T15:56:00.000-08:00

Schadenfreude is when one takes pleasure from the suffering of others, and it has launched me into a height of Europhoria thanks to the French. For the past WEEK, the Paris suburbs have been a lawless wasteland of rioting. Hundreds of vehicles, storefronts and other buildings have been burned and damaged beyond recognition.

However, the fiercest fighting has occurred between politicians fighting over the terms of dialog with which to engage the rioters. The Interior Minister has been roundly denounced for describing the rioters as a "rabble" and Chirac is under fire for not addressing the issue for six days. Chirac finally had a spokesman release a statement urging "dialog".

While the fiercest French warriors were wandering the halls of government, the official face of French l'authorita were out in the streets trying to engage the rioters in "dialog". The police formed a line hiding behind riot shields and fired rubber bullets into the crowd. This tactic was no doubt learned in the summer of 1940 on the Belgian frontier, and had about the same amount of success as the rioters reached and overran a police station. This show of strength by the uniformed French gendarmes has inspired the riotous youth to change tactics. Early in the week rioters largely avoided police, but have now taken a tact of direct confrontation. We even heard the first reports of gunfire from the rioters today.

So far the numbers of arrested and injured are unimpressive compared to the 50 or so dead in the Rodney King riots that lasted just a few hours. About 140 people have been arrested in the last week and only 25 cops have suffered injuries, but things are getting worse and I sincerely doubt the French government is putting out comprehensive numbers considering their inability to exert control over the Paris suburbs.

All in all, it hass been a good run for the 5th Republic (or is it the 8th? I lost track). They have been going strong for almost 50 years without any embarrassing invasions (it turns out that group of Germans were simply on a bus tour and returned to Germany after finding all the shops closed and witnessing a strange phenomenon of white laundry drying on every line.) It was only a matter of time before foreign invaders brought down another French Republic.

This time the invaders were given a head start. Instead of having to cross the whole of the Belgian Frontier to get to Paris, now they just have to come from the suburbs. And while this group may hate jews just as much as the last bunch, they don't have much else in common. But be careful with schadenfreude, if you say it to loudly, it might frighten the rioters back into their homes and you'll be accused of stifling the much needed "dialog".

sigh

2005-10-31T12:13:00.000-08:00

The Home Depot
8334 Tamarack Village
Woodbury, MN 55125

Dear Store Manager and Kitchen Design Manager,

I visited your store last Saturday afternoon (10/29/05 1PM) to do some shopping for a house I just bought. My new house will require a great deal work of such as replacing all of the flooring, new paint, a new deck, a new fence and a kitchen that will have to be completely torn out and replaced.

In regards to your flooring, painting, and other departments I was pleased by your selection, service and pricing. However, the situation changed when I entered your kitchen area. I was politely greeted by an employee and he cheerfully suggested I visit with a kitchen designer and showed me the way.

The discussion with your kitchen designer was terribly un-helpful and frustrating. She had very few answers concerning prices, provided little guidance, and seemed intent on sending me away with a packet of brochures and little else. I had come into the process with very little knowledge of kitchen design, but I also came with a $10,000 budget. I was shocked that your designer took so little interest. I had brought some rudimentary measurements and I would have been very pleased to leave with just some help on what to consider, some design ideas, and possibly a few examples that would likely fit my situation. Ideally I would have liked to get a realistic understanding of what my $10,000 could purchase. Instead I got some brochures.

What disappoints me further is that there were no lines or large groups of other customers waiting to be serviced. There was no immediately visible pressure on this person’s time, but there was definitely the sense that she couldn’t be bothered.

I have gotten better service from used car dealers. While I have sometimes questioned their motives, just about every one of them at least took the time to give me a test drive. Whether it’s a $10,000 Buick or a $10,000 kitchen, I hope your kitchen designers take a hint from the used car folks and give your customers more attention.

White Sox* Win

2005-10-27T13:40:00.000-07:00

And Harriet Miers withdraws. Universe in Harmony.

Last night we saw about the whiniest bunch of losers win the big one. It is my belief that their joy will be fleeting and quickly fade to their whiny and desparate ways. The Sox* lack any evidence of class and have no hope of building a dynasty that might continue their winning ways. So in memory of their win, let's post some comment for posterity:

"White Sox fans never stopped believin,' and Wednesday night it was time to kick back and hold on to the feelin.'"

"Thank God," said Danny Humanicki, 37, of Franklin Park, as he cried tears of joy outside a bar near Cellular Field. "You always dream about it ... and when it happens, you feel like a baby."

"In Chicago, we haven't experienced this in forever," said Kirk Vucsko"

"Champagne poured in the back room as men kissed men, women kissed women, people danced on tables and everyone hugged everyone."

(Must have been the gay Sox* bar)

"And more ominous gunfire rang out in areas scattered around the city -- 372 reports of gunfire in just one hour."
(That's the south side I know and love!)

''I didn't know what it was going to feel like and I still don't know what it feels like,'' Reinsdorf said. ''I'm just numb right now.

"What Chicago ever did to suffer almost a century of baseball hopelessness, you'll have to ask the evil spirits or Mrs. O'Leary's cow."

"No longer must any of us dwell on the 1919 Black Sox, Disco Demolition Night, elephants, midgets, drunks on the field and decades of futility and identity crises."

Just watch me.

I think the most amzing thing about the Sox* is that they are 19-3 since Sept. 23, slighly more than a month ago. That's a good time to get hot.

Comments, Appreciated and Otherwise

2005-10-25T23:12:00.000-07:00

I do enjoy your comments, but not all of them. Especially not the spamming commercial variety that are often confusing at best. I got many of these in my long absence and on my previous post. No more.

I have also turned off the anonymous commenting... I think. From now on you will have to go through the elaborate process of creating a fake identity in order to comment anonymously. I'm somewhat torn by this. Anonymity often encourages the reluctant and can be a source of 'truth' that might be difficult to point out in polite company. It's the old fly in the down position dilemma. Someone should really tell that person, but who really wants to be the one to go through that uncomfortable exchange?

Another thing anonymity encourages is vulgarity. I have nothing against vulgarity, but I think it only fair that those who are, take credit for being so. Vulgarity in anonymity is mental masturbation. Vulgarity in public is likely to get you a morning FM job. So keep those audition tapes coming!

Mainstream, Qualified

2005-10-24T11:02:00.000-07:00

I like to think of myself in those terms. They give me a warm fuzzy when I look in the mirror and say "Gilles, you're mainstream enough, you're qualified enough, and doggone it, 8 people read your blog."

This seems to be the reaction to Bush Fed Chair pick Ben Bernanke as summarized by this quote here: "However, the main reaction will be a sigh of relief that he is one of the mainstream, qualified candidates."

This is quite telling that Wall Street was aprehensive Bush would pick a non-qulified, non-mainstream candidate. What ever would give them that idea? Oh yeah, Harriet Miers, Bush's crony unqualified pick for the Supreme Court. I suppose in this case it was quite reasonable for Wall Street to brace itself for a Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on completed keg stands by new Fed Chief Jenna Bush.

The popular democrat pick for the Fed was Robert Rubin. He generally has a good reputation on Wall St. and served as Clinton's Secretary of the Treasury. Since Bush took office he has been running Citi Group - the massive bank and financial service company based in New York. I thought it would be interesting to compare the dem's guru to the performance of Bush and the American economy overall in the last four years.

When Rubin took over, Citi's stock price was about $48. Today Citi is trading right around $44, roughly a 9% decline in that time.

As a proxy for the US economy I took the S&P 500 index. At the same time Citi was at $48, the S&P was at $1100. Today it is trading at about $1200, or roughly a 9% increase.

So at the same time US stocks were up 9%, the Democrats great economic guru lead one of our country's largest banks into a 9% decline. Granted I'm not digging too deep here and maybe Rubin saved Citi from a 30% decline or some other disaster, but as a general investor, I'd be much more pleased with a generic index of American stocks, all of which at the mercy of general American trends - than the stock specifically guided and directed by Rubin. Nor would I be interested in having him manage my mutual fund, let alone promoted to setting monetary policy for the whole country.

Try this next time a Democrat claims the economy stinks. Explain growth is up and Bush's economic record is better than Robert Rubin's - and watch their jaws drop and immediately go into how Bush is an idiot. This will be even more amusing to you if you get them calling Bush an evil genius earlier in the conversation about the recent spat of indictments.

Do as I say, not as a I Powerball

2005-10-20T14:57:00.000-07:00

Powerball, I spit on you! I belittle you're very existence! Powerball is a tax on the poor, the ignorant, and the wishful thinkers. I must have caught a case of the last one pretty bad because I broke down and bought a ticket when the jackpot hit $340 million.

I spent a good deal of time wishful thinking, enough anyway to check on some things to make sure I could fit all of my plans into my 'winnings'. I found I had to scale way back. A good rule of thumb is to take the lottery jackpot and divide by 4 - and you'll get your true winnings. Now $340 million divided by four is still $85 million, but it's not enough to buy the Twins and build a stadium. It's barely enough to have a stadium named after you. It's certainly enough to let you quit your job, but not enough to live like Paris Hilton - more like Jacque Jones. $85 million handled prudently should generate about $5-$6 million a year, just about what the Twins RF makes.

One guy at the dog park tried to justify getting tickets when the dollar amount exceeded the odds - 1 in 146 million. At first I bought this. On further inspection, the true 'break even' is much, much higher. First off, we need to take the $146 million times 4 in order to get your dollars odds to match your lottery odds. So the jackpot has to be $584 million. And let's not forget that you are buying your lottery ticket with after tax dollars (as opposed to putting them in your 401k), the jackpot would have to be about 25% higher - or $759 million.

Policy wise I'm torn by the lottery. It is appalling that government would prey on people's ignorance and greed just to bring in a little extra revenue... (why did Enron just come to mind?) On the other hand, I do believe that every citizen should pay taxes - rich poor or otherwise. All of them get to enjoy the services provided by government, all of them should pay for it. In this age of hand wringing over the 'poor' the lottery (and cable taxes, cigarette taxes, alchohol taxes, and gas taxes) is the only available means to tax the poor. Some of the sting is taken away with the realization that the tax is voluntary, but then why does the government ban lotteries assembled by private citizens? Why was the numbers game in New York City something undertaken by the mafia and Malcolm X? I dare say we have a double standard.

Moral of the story, don't play lotto unless the jackpot is more than $759 million - and until it is, make fun of people who do play it.

Missing in Action

2005-10-17T12:19:00.000-07:00

I had no idea. I leave my blog alone for one measly month and I start getting junk email posts to my comments section. Something about online dating, another about the food network, and few other pieces which may or may not have been random.

Anyway, hopefully the fact that I'm posting will chase away these junk comments.

Many topics have surfaced and submerged in the last month or so.

The White Sox are going to the World Series. This is a tragedy beyond words. If ever a curse was derserved, it is the White Sox ever since they threw the Series back in 1919. The curse of the Bambino was a dumb trade, but hardly curse worthy - and moot anyway. The curse of the billy goat is just stupid, unless that is your code word for Dusty Baker.

The Black Sox made Pete Rose look like a girl scout by comparison. Rose, for all his stupidity, merely bet on his team. The Sox THREW the game! The entire existence of the Chicago White Sox* should be followed by an asterisk. And every fan worth a damn who believes in the history and integrity of the game should do everything in their will power to wish the Sox* into an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the National League.

As troubling as the World Series bound White Sox* is to me, it can only be trumped by the inane pick of Harriet Miers to the Supreme court. Listen, I love Bush and I'm willing to swallow a lot of swill to support him. I can swallow Miers being an affirmative action female pick. I can swallow a 'stealth' candidate that is difficult to pin down in a confirmation hearing. I can even, just barely, handle the fact that Miers is a crony. What I can't swallow is what the MSNBC/Wall Street Journal poll made abundantly clear - only 29% of American's think Miers is QUALIFIED to be a Supreme Court Justice. This is a country, and we are a party, of Merit! Bush could have violated all of the other things I dislike and I would have accepted his "trust me" had his nominee been remotely qualified to serve on the Supreme Court. Sadly she is not, and she needs to be kept off the Supreme Court. I'd even swallow a White Sox* victory for that outcome.

Going South by Northwest

2005-09-13T13:12:00.000-07:00

Northwest Airlines has an iron grip on air travel out of Minnesota. Unless you're flying to Chicago, for $99 from the other major airlines or the few discount airlines that have a smattering of gates in Minneapolis, you will pay a premium. Back in 2001 when I was flying out to the inauguration with some friends, we found that a NWA flight out of Milwaukee, that connected through Minneapolis, to DC cost $200. For my friends to catch the same connecting flight in Minneapolis cost them $400. My friends drove to Milwaukee, except for the guy who works for Northwest airlines and flew for free.

Northwest is undergoing a very bitter strike by the mechanics union - AMFA. The Minnesota Daily provides this knee jerk article on how we should support the union against the evil corporation. The Star Tribune, via the New York Times, reports that NWA and Delta will be filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy this week. Northwest, along with Delta, United, and US Air are all about to join Eastern Airlines on the trash heap of history. This is a terrible thing for anyone who works for the airline or relies upon them for a pension. Check that last statement, it is a terrible thing for the taxpayers who will have to pay pensions instead of Northwest Airlines. For air travelers based in the twin cities, this is a glorious day. While direct flights with no connections will diminish somewhat, the twin cities will become a non-hub such as the Raleigh-Durham area where dozens of major and discount airlines engage in epic fare wars.

But it will be awhile. These airlines are losing money hand over fist every day. However, United Airlines has found the business quite profitable so long as they stay in the cozy protection of Chapter 11. So long as the airlines don't have to repay their billions in loans, the old hub and spoke airlines work! This will work for the short term, but eventually the patience of creditors, judges and aging aircraft will take their toll.

Northwest is also crushing the mechanics union and reaping millions of savings. NWA walked away from the table again this weekend and today began the process of permanently replacing striking workers. I believe AMFA has 4400 employee members, NWA has 1500 replacement workers on the job, and plans to operate at 2200 with or without the union. If NWA can convince a fifth of the AMFA members to come back to work without the union, AMFA is finished.

One might think that the AFL-CIO and every other union at the airline, such as the pilots and stewardesses, would show some good old solidarity and join the mechanics. But they won't, thanks to AMFA's tactics in the late 90's. Back then, the mechanics were represented by IAM, which was the official AFL-CIO union for airline mechanics. AMFA came charging into NWA during a contract dispute and promised a more militant approach. The rank and file threw out the IAM (and AFL-CIO affiliates) and jumped to AMFA. This poaching of their union did not sit well with the AFL-CIO types, and now they distinctly do not stand with AMFA. In fact, the AFL-CIO will let NWA liquidate the mechanics union just to eliminate AMFA. I suppose the AFL-CIO is confident they can reorganize after the failed strike, but it will be on NWA's terms - such as half as many jobs and reduced pay.

Even with the savings at the expense of mechanics, NWA will not survive. The problem isn't simply one of reducing costs. The problem is structural. If NWA wasn't burdened with the existing debt, a structural change would be possible. As it stands, the best thing for the airline industry and Minnesota air traveler is for NWA to be liquidated and its assets cheaply assumed and re-organized by someone else.

Destroy the Hurricane!

2005-09-08T14:17:00.000-07:00

If we have learned one thing from Hurricane Katrina, it is that the only useful arm of the government is the military. It took the Army's involvement and leadership to offset the bumbling incompetence of the Mayor of New Orleans and the weak kneed indecisiveness of Louisiana's Governor. A friend of mine once said that Republicans are genetically pre-disposed towards leadership. After witnessing last weeks handling of Katrina vs. Rudy and Pataki in NY - I'm moving that theory up to global warming plausibility.

Seeing as how the military is all we've got to rely on, it's time to put Bush's policy of pre-emption to work. We must destroy the hurricane before it gets us!

We could bomb the sucker! But it turns out that hurricanes thrive on heat. Any bomb would just add to it, potentially making it stronger. You'd also need lots of bombs to have any hope of disrupting the eyewall. Use a nuke? Well, a medium sized hurricane puts off the same amount of heat energy as 400 hydrogen bombs. We might just end up with a radioactive super heated category 7 hurricane. Let's hold off on this solution.

Dry ice, and lots of it! Again, you'd need massive amounts of dry ice to make a dent. You could put the ice in the ocean, or an ice berg, but you'd have to be able to perfectly track the hurricane. And again, you'd need enough ice to cool off 400 hydrogen bombs. My reading suggested this solution is like trying to warm up Minneapolis in January by opening your window. Since I don't pay the natural gas bill, I shall implement this experiment this winter and report in February.

There was a time when the government took this problem seriously. It was called project STORMFURY, which must be the greatest name ever for a government project. The idea was to seed the eyewall with silver iodide that would create ice crystals, the snow would fall, clouds would grow larger, and the eye wall would weaken and a second, wider eyewall would form. A wider eyewall is weaker than a tight eyewall for the same reason an ice skater spins faster when she pulls in her arms.

In 1961 Hurricane Esther's growth was stopped and appeared to weaken after seeding. In 1963 Hurricane Buelah was seeded to postive results. In 1969 Hurricane Debbie was seeded and lost windspeed from 115MPH to 80MPH. Success!

However some scientists poo-poohed the results saying that other, larger natural forces had more impact than the seeding. There was also some international concern since a few of these seeded hurricanes ended up hitting Cuba instead of their projected Florida landfalls. I say it sucks to be Cuba, but the State Department disagreed and project STORMFURY was shut down in the early 70's and was considered scientifically inconclusive.

Now this fella has some nifty ideas that the military already has the means. If you can get past the swastika super imposed on the hurricane satelite view and his references to the "fascist Bush family" using the state of Florida as a hurricane weapons testing platform (which of course helps keep poor people from voting and FEMA dollars flowing to buy elections), he believes that the military is using earth frequency waves to control the weather, emotions, and conduct mind control - which is also useful in winning elections. If this guy is right, the military has the means to create happy thoughts, steer hurricanes away, and vote Republican. Let's cross our fingers.

Talk Talk

2005-09-01T15:18:00.000-07:00

Our local bastion of conservative radio, AM1500 KSTP, is getting gutted at the end of the year with the establishment of FM100.3 KTLK which will replace a smooth jazz station. KTLK will take Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity away from KSTP and KSTP is going to move towards a local talk angle.

Mitch Berg has a very thorough analysis here.

Below is my take on it in an email to Franklin:

This also falls into my statement the other day that I think Reusse (Soucheray's sports sidekick) is quickly degenerating into WCCO-land(old people AM). He's not nearly as smart or quick as he was in the flashback skits they run. His value to the show now rests on his buffoonery brought on by age. Reusse will take up the mantle of Sid Hartman(the OLD guy). Sadly, Joe is not that far behind. He's got 10 years left in him tops. Joe also needs at least one winner around him, and Lewis is the guy. Limbaugh, Soucheray and Lewis were the golden age for KSTP.

I'd like to see Dave Thompson get his chance, but I don't see him holding with just Joe. If KSTP can go noon to 8 with Thompson, Soucheray and Lewis - you have a real shot. Otherwise I think KSTP may just shrivel up and die.

The biggest loser in all of this is the Patriot who will be a distant 3rd to premiere national talent at KTLK and local talk at KSTP. WCCO will continue to die.

National stars that should be brought on board - Dave Ramsey and Opie & Anthony. They are both ratings gold waiting to explode.

Stay tuned...

Osama is Right

2005-08-31T12:30:00.000-07:00

I hate to say it, but ultimately the observation Osama Bin Laden made about Americans following the Black Hawk down incident in Mogadishu holds true. You kill a couple of Americans, and we turn tail and run. In the case of Iraq, it took longer for this to happen and the killing of Americans had to be sustained over three years. Over that time 1800 American men and women have died in Iraq. That works out to about 2 deaths a day. And the media has been there to document and report on every one. Thank goodness the media doesn't pay more attention to our highways which kill 116 people every day. For some perspective, in Vietnam we lost 16 people a day for a total of 58,177 dead over 10 years.

Even with just two dead a day for three years, the American public has turned on the war in Iraq. It looks increasingly unlikely that the American public will allow for the mission to be completed and withdrawal will be demanded. It will be a ringing victory for crazy islamists who will have defeated the premiere power on earth. It will encourage them to take the fight throughout the middle east, Europe, North Africa, South east Asia, and the occasional bloody reminder in the US.

Because of our inherent weakness, we will need to fight and be ready for the next war. We don't need to change our assault tactics and training. Clearly the American military is extremely capable of overruning foreign armies, taking land, disrupting supply, and reducing opposing armies to rubble. We have nearly perfected the conquest phase of combat. The problem comes in the garrison stage of the conflict. It's not that the army isn't effective, it is simply unable to keep casualties below a tolerable threshold for public consumption. With that threshold being essentially zero, it is impracticle to use Americans in this role. We need an alternative. We need to outsource this job.

Thus I'd like to propse the Indian Foreign Legion.

The US would fund, arm, and train large divisions of Indian Infantry. The Indian mission would be very specific to garrison duties such as anti-insurgency activities, urban defense, police training, convoy guarding, and infrastructure guarding. The arms, equipment, vehicles, and uniform would be tailored to the job.

The officer corp would consist of Indians and Americans while the enlisted soldiers would all be Indian. The troops would only be deployed after US troops had finished the conquest phase of combat. In the event of India being invaded by Pakistan, China or anyone else, the units would be turned over to the Indian government for domestic defense.

The advantages to India would include thousands of jobs and job training to India's millions of unemployed, underpaid, young men. A large number of Indians would recieve the professional military training provided by America that could be transferred to modernize and improve India's national forces. The alliance between India and America would be strengthened and provide deterence to possible aggressors such as Pakistan or Iraq. The bases funded by the US would have the same economic boosting impact in India that bases in America have on local communities. Most Indian's have some knowledge of english and would be further educated. Reciprocity of citizenship to America could be offered as an incentive to Indians who complete their enlistment.

The advantage to America is that we will be able to complete our missions, defeat our enemies, and take the time required to establish stable governments without the American public going soft and scared half way through.

Win-Win

Star Tribune + Cindy Sheehan = LUV

2005-08-24T11:33:00.000-07:00

Surprise, surprise, the Star Tribune Editorial writers think Cindy is the greatest thing ever. They provide the typical liberal attitude towards Sheehan, the war in Iraq, and protestors. I'll let them speak for themselves...

Thirty-five years ago, the antiwar movement was typified by a long-haired, scruffy young male of draftable age, burning his draft card. A new antiwar movement is being born this summer on a Texas roadside. It presents a much different face -- feminine, older, wiser, and filled with grief and righteous indignation.

Hmm... older? wiser? By god I think these may be the same people, just 30 years older! Sacre bleu! But I digress...

The face is that of mothers who lost sons and daughters in Iraq, first Cindy Sheehan of California, and now more, including Minnesota state Sen. Becky Lourey. The moral authority of the blossoming movement's face is undeniable and, despite concerted conservative efforts to discredit it, unassailable.

Unassailable?!? Surely this is true of the grief they must have experienced in losing sons, but no one has questioned any heartfelt grief by either woman. However the Star Tribune and pretty much liberals everywhere seem to think that grief is equivalent to "moral authority". As if being sad was somehow an argument within itself. No amount of grief gives credence to Sheehan’s assertions that a secret cabal of Jews started the war, George Bush killed her son, or that Afghanistan was perfectly peaceful and safe before we arrived. Cindy's arguments are certainly 'assailable'.

I shall also dare to assail Cindy's motives. Her son died 14 months ago. She met with Bush shortly after and spoke glowingly of their meeting saying that Bush brought back a small amount of joy to her family's life. In the ensuing time, she got caught up with the Michael Moore/Moveon.org crowd. 14 months later she shows up in Crawford and demands a second meeting with Bush to accuse him of killing her son. Is this simply a woman driven by grief to extreme and hysterical action? Or dare I say it, is this the cold calculation of a neo-lefty to further her new cause and embarrass the president? Hmm... once again Cindy has been assailed.

Even those who disagree with the antiwar encampment's contention that the war in Iraq is delivering none of its promised gains for this country are obliged to concede that Sheehan and other Gold Star mothers have the right to express their sorrow and anger as they see fit.

It is this contention that you hear most on TV - "Cindy has a right to protest!" Well certainly, but so what? No one is challenging her 'rights' to publicly protest or grieve. Not a single person has suggested that she be locked up for DARING to show dissent. However, a lot of people have argued that her ideas and desires are wrong and destructive. The left has no answer for those arguments, so they pretend they are protecting her 'rights' from imaginary buggaboos.

To these mothers' credit, they see fit to grieve in silence no longer. Their witness is that stubborn adherence to a failed policy is not patriotism, and that the sacrifice of fallen sons and daughters is not dishonored by an admission that their assignment was flawed, and needs revision.

Okay, very good. Liberals think the Iraq war is flawed and needs revision. Let's forget the specifics of the flaws for a moment, you can find those written pretty much everywhere else. What, pray tell great oracle of leftism, shall we DO instead? Hmm?

And there's the rub. The left offers NOTHING beyond flaws and demands for ethereal revisions. Now to be fair, there is a small segment of lefties calling for a complete pullout and disengagement from the Middle East, but this sentiment is not yet mainstream and not yet stated by the Star Tribune.

Lourey, who spent three days at the protest site dubbed Camp Casey outside President Bush's ranch, offers the antiwar movement a powerful voice -- one capable of attracting national attention if this summer's grass-roots combustion in Crawford catches lasting fire. Both personally and politically, the DFL state senator from Kerrick commands respect. Lourey, 62, is an indefatigable 15-year legislator admired for her warmth, passion and lawmaking skill. She and her husband raised 12 children, eight of them adopted, while establishing a successful family business. She is as riveting a speaker as exists in Minnesota's liberal camp.

The praise for Lourey's speaking ability says more about the DFL's paucity of talent. As for her other gifts, only those of shared values would describe her that way. A more detached analyst would describe Lourey as reliably liberal, outspoken on liberal topics, and rarely offers compromise.

Lourey fell silent in the weeks after her Army pilot son Matt was shot down and killed near Baghdad in June. Her grief's quiet phase appears to have ended. We expect that she now has much to say that, in coming weeks, Americans should hear.

Becky Lourey has this to say, "We shouldn't be in Iraq". Thank goodness we have one more liberal politician saying Bush is wrong.

The Minnesota contingent at Camp Casey also included DFL Second District congressional candidate Coleen Rowley, the former FBI agent and whistleblower on the agency's inept handling of tips about the terror plot that became 9/11. Rowley's participation drew out U.S. Rep. John Kline, the Second District incumbent whom Rowley is challenging. Kline faulted Lourey, Rowley and other war protesters. Their action "is harmful to the morale of the soldiers, and it encourages the enemy," he said on a visit to the Star Tribune.

To Americans past a certain age, the accusation is familiar. It echoes the rhetoric that hawks used to try to stifle the antiwar movement that burgeoned during the Vietnam War, especially after the Tet offensive in 1968, when Americans came together in large numbers to change this nation's policy in Southeast Asia.

First, this isn't Vietnam. There is no draft. Young people are not being forced to fight a war they dislike. The fighters are volunteers. The left lacks the moral authority of fighting the draft. Second, no one has attempted to "stifle" dissent. There have been no riots or Chicago 1968 type scenes. Protestors go unmolested and fully covered by the media. Third, Kline's words were clearly in the form of political argument with a direct political opponent. They were not in the form of a government edict with the force of law behind them.

As for Kline's specific claims, let's take a closer look. Do Sheehan's protests deter the morale of the troops? I've heard anecdotal evidence that the troops don't appreciate the protests and are particularly sour about the media's coverage of their efforts. On the whole, I think it's a bit of a stretch to make this claim. Do Sheehan's protests encourage the enemy? The protests end up on Al-Jazeera and are referenced in Al-Queda propaganda. The protests are used to justify Osama's assertion after Mogadishu that American's are weak and will cut and run at the first sign of distress. The protests most certainly help Al-Queada recruit more insurgents and give them hope that if they just kill a few more Americans, we'll give up and they'll win. These protests certainly help the enemy.

Some might describe such support for our enemies to be treasonous. I disagree with that sentiment. Misguided? Yes. Foolish? Yes. Patriotic? No.

Suggesting that protesters have insufficient concern for American troops was an easy charge to level against draft-dodging youth, and it probably is to be expected as congressional campaign season gets underway. But it does not ring true when aimed at parents who raised children so patriotic that they volunteered for military service. Such parents understand what support for those sons and daughters requires. They know that it does not require blind loyalty to bad policy.

Honestly I agree. However with a caveat. In Vietnam it was easy to call hippies anti-troops, not because they burned draft cards, but because they literally spat on troops as they returned and greeted them with epithets such as 'baby killer'. That is NOT happening today and that is good. I think most of today’s liberals are at least not anti-troops. I do hear Hannity trying to make the argument that you can only support the troops if you support their mission. As in many things Hannity, I find that asinine.

As for blind loyalty, that's not being asked. Bush has argued that the lost troops have lost their lives for a worthy cause. A cause that will bring democracy and freedom to the Middle East. As a result, these newly freed people will be far less inclined to launch attacks against America, provide safe havens for terrorist camps, or develop weapons that could be devastating if delivered by terrorists. It is a long-term process to change a whole region. We had to run Japan (famous for the Nanjing Massacre and Batan Death March) for 10 years after WWII, and we've never left Germany (of holocaust fame). More recently, American troops are still based in Bosnia 9 years later. This is not a fight that will be won in the next news cycle. It is a fight for a generation, and it is one worth having. It beats the alternative of waiting for terrorists to organize and strike at will.

Dog Days of Politics

2005-08-19T13:02:00.000-07:00

I was perusing the web today and came across this article by Byron York at the National review. He was outlining the position of Moveon.org in the whole Cindy Sheehan thing. What I found most interesting was this point, "On its website, MoveOn offered protesters what amounted to a pre-fab vigil kit, including talking points, a "sample media advisory," and pre-designed signs Â placards that read MOMS FOR PEACE and MEET WITH CINDY and, apparently for pet lovers, DOGS FOR CINDY."

As a blog dedicated to the idea of dog ownership, I suppose it is incumbent upon me to inlcude my pooch Maggie into the great political discussions of the day. I am somewhat embarrassed that it required the forethinking of a Moveon.com demonstration to spark this revelation. After all, Maggie is known for spending her afternoons taking in talk radio, perusing the Weekly Standard and Mother Jones, and participating in the dog equivalent of blogging - barking at random strangers who cross the yard.

Without further adieu, I give you Maggie:

BILL: So Maggie, welcome to the blog. As you know, the name dogparkwalker is very much inspired by our relationship. But I gotta ask you, are you a Republican or a Democrat?

MAGGIE: Well, I have to demur. I really thought Maureen Dowd had a good thing going as she remained coy about her ideology and partisan affiliation. That veneer has since been ripped away, and so has the joy of reading Maureen.

BILL: I think some would argue that you are a democrat. Afterall, you are dependent on me for food, beg for additional food which is not yours, and are easily frightened by thunder, guitars, and Franklin.

MAGGIE: Let me address the food issue - I'm a dog. Food is my life. I am very grateful that you provide a bowl of dry stuff forsustenancee, but am doubly grateful for the nibbles of vittles which you enjoy in mass quantities. Am I slightly bitter? Yes, yes I am. However I recognize there is an order of things. I'm quite confident I could find food on my own, however this would involve many dumpsters and carci of small creatures. We are honestly better off in this traditional relationship.

As for my fear of guitars, thunder and Franklin... let's just say they all stem from my fear of Franklin.

BILL: What's so frightening about Franklin?!?

MAGGIE: I'd rather not say...

BILL: Alright... now some say you might be a conservative. Afterall you have been known to chew up my issues of Mother Jones while leaving the Weekly Standard intact.

MAGGIE: About the Mother Jones thing. I was young, impetuous, and liked to chew things. Every Mother Jones article I read was a variation of 6 Degrees of Big Oil. Take on the merits of an argument? Nope. Put forth a reasonable and progressive alternative to their opponents? Uh-uh. Show how some guy's grand father's cousin owned shares of Standard Oil? AH-HA! GOTCHA! Again, I was young, impetuous, and driven to chew by the drivel inside.

As for the Weekly Standard, while I didn't always agree with those neocons, at least they made cogent arguments that didn't drive me to chewing destruction. Besides, it didn't taste very good.

BILL: What about your appreciation of Garage Logic?

MAGGIE: This may come as a surprise, but dogs can't tell time. When old Souchy boy comes on I know that one of two things will happen. You'll either take me to the dog park or Franklin will come home and terrify me yet again.

BILL: So Maggie, what's your take on the Cindy Sheehan stories out of Crawford, TX.

MAGGIE: My main concern in all things is the general welfare of dogs everywhere. War is never a good thing for dogs. Owners die, we step on land mines, water gets dirty - it's nasty stuff. However, I understand the purpose of this war is to diminish the opportunities for crazy muslims to bring the war to America. I can appreciate this goal.

After all, you had your buddy from Iraq come back and tell what was going on over there. One thing that really struck me was that in the 6 months he was there killing and capturing insurgents - the vast majority were Syrians, with a good number of Iranians, a few Iraqis and even a suspected North Korean sniper. It really sounds like the war in Iraq isn't against Iraq, it is against every other crazy anti-American in the world.

It brought to mind that Iraq is serving as a proxy battlefield for America's enemies. Personally I much prefer they fight there than at the dog park.

Mother Sheehan is right now indistinguishable from Mother Jones. While I have grown and no longer feel an urge to chew that which annoys me, in this case I am tempted. Right now she is only expressing her ignorance and idiocy and cloaking it in the honor of her son's service.

BILL: Do you have any suggestions for Democrats or centrists?

MAGGIE: Yes! There is a valid critique of Bush's policies in Iraq and in the war on terror. What we need as a country is for Democrats to step up and not just stop at the critique of Bush. They need to provide real alternatives and real solutions to fighting terrorism. Right now you can boil down the left's policies, such as they are, to leaving the middle east entirely and creating Fortress America with better harbor (but not border) security. This is not a reasonable response, thus we can't have a reasonable discussion of alternatives. All we have is Bush doing his thing, Republicans calling it good, and Democrats calling it bad.

BILL: And Cindy Sheehan...?

MAGGIE: She simply perpetuates the unproductive tact of the "debate" we are failing to have.
BILL: Maggie, I had no idea you had such strong opinions.

MAGGIE: Well, you never asked before. Now let's go to the park.

Thought of the Day

2005-08-17T11:07:00.000-07:00

If you just can't get enough of my blogging, you'll find my reaction to the environmental left's slow acceptance of nuclear power over at www.cfactcampus.org.

I also leave you with this profound thought I had last night. Mathew LeCroy had hit a ball to the right side that forced the second baseman to field the ball deep in the hole. LeCroy made it safely to first. I commented, "I love it when LeCroy gets infield hits. It's an affront to nature."

Pot Smoking Hippies Destroying Western Wilderness

2005-08-17T09:57:00.000-07:00

At least that what the headline should have been for this story. Turns out drug cartels are using public parks and land to grow massive amounts of pot to avoid border crossings. Before 9/11, a typical bust netted a hundred plants. Now the busts are netting thousands of high grade pot plants.

"Last year alone, rangers and drug enforcement officials removed 100,000 marijuana plants from California national parks, with almost half coming out of Sequoia. Meanwhile, authorities removed half a million pot plants from national forest and federal Bureau of Land Management lands in California during 2004."

Californians sure love their pot. Environmentalists are extremely concerned, about the fact that drug cartels are operating on American soil? Not so much...

"What bothers environmentalists primarily is the effect on the health of protected public lands. The armed growers feast on poached venison, spill pesticides, divert water from streams and dump tons of trash."

Well now! Here is an opportunity for environmentalists to think globally, act locally, and knock off smoking all that weed! Right?!?

"But funding droughts in recent years have meant the slashing of law enforcement budgets for public lands. With the massive expansion of operations deep in the woods, a few agents here and there stand little chance of even making a dent in the cartels' cultivation efforts. So until more money makes its way to Sequoia and other public lands, visitors would be wise not to venture too far off trail."

So Environmentalists are calling for an expansion in drug war funding. I guess it was naive to think that they would approach the demand side and start posting bumper stickers about pot smoking leading to eco-trashing. It's much easier for them to ask for increased government spending to make pot smoking eco-guilt free. Talk about a buzz kill.

BANG!

2005-08-15T13:39:00.000-07:00

It would seem that the Big Bang Theory is more appropriate for blogging than it is for astronomy. Not only are there more bloggers, but bloggers are getting more blogs. Marty invited me to join an event planning blog for the University of Minnesota, and now at CFACT we have our internal blogger up and running. You can find my post on our recently concluded Eco-Summit now.

I think I will also take this time to make something clear. I've been meaning to do this for awhile, but with the CFACT blogger now up and running, it is timely indeed.

The posts I make on the CFACT blog are official CFACT correspondence. They are not simply being posted by me, they are being posted by the office of the National Director. Those are CFACT's official positions.

Anything posted here at Dog Park Walker are posted solely by me and have nothing to do with CFACT whatsoever. There is zero relation between my posts on Dog Park Walker and those at CFACT. Opinions posted at Dog Park Walker should never be assumed or associated with the opionions and positions of CFACT. If you want those - go to the CFACT site.

In that light, I'll rarely address consumer and environmental issues at this blog to help reduce confusion. However, I might reference that brilliant blogger over at CFACT who I seem to always agree.

The Senate Supreme

2005-08-10T09:38:00.000-07:00

I don't know what it is, but I'm suffering from a political bug these days. I'm also suffering from a stomach bug, but this isn't that kind of blog. The 2006 Senate elections could be very important. The Dems have a generic advantage right now with the right/wrong track numbers now polling around 57% wrong track and Bush in the mid-40's approval. However, for the GOP they are taking on a lot of freshman democrats who won in a very good year for them back in 2000.

The GOP managed to lose a net 5 seats in 2000. It started a few months before the election when Paul Coverdell died in office and Zell Miller was appointed to replace him. On election day, the GOP picked up seats in Nevada and Virginia with John Ensign and George Allen. The Dems managed to take 5 GOP seats in MN (Dayton), Michigan (Stabenow), Missouri (Carnahan), Florida (Nelson) and Delaware (Carper). A month later the Washington state recount ended with a Dem pickup (Cantwell).

The GOP also managed to narrowly lose a bunch of seats. In Nebraska, Ben Nelson held a dem seat by narrowly beating Stenberg 51-49. In New Jersey Corzine, despite his millions only won 51-48. Most aggravating was Hillary's win in NY, which wasn't close, but might have been if Rudy stayed in the race.

Since then the GOP has rebuilt to 55 seats in 2002 and 2004 by getting the Missouri seat back and a bunch of southern seats.

Hawaii - Daniel Akaka (D)
Akaka said he's running again, and will win if he does. The danger for dems is that Akaka is old. There is a serious chance he won't make it through the next term and the present Hawaii gov is GOP. This could eventually be a GOP pickup, but not this cycle.
DEM HOLD

California - Diane Feinstein (D)
Feinstein will easily win re-election. Polling pitting her against Arnold and Condoleeza Rice have her winning easy. The CA GOP bench is thin and no one else commands the name recognition of those two. Fact is, this seat, or any other Diane might want in Cali, is hers for the taking - and she wants her senate seat.
DEM HOLD

Washington - Maria Cantwell (D)
Maria is a weak candidate. The bad news for her is that her approval rating is 47% - only 4 points better than Bush and 10 points less than fellow senator Patty Murray. The good news for Maria is that Washington is a blue state and the head to head with GOPer Costco exec Mike McGavick is 46-38.

McGavick is very rich, and only being 8 points back generates some hope. But the GOP would much rather have had Dino Rossi run, but Rossi is intent on a rematch in 2008 for Gov with Christine Gregoire who he currently beats 55-39 in the polls. Personally, I think Rossi is a fool. It is a lot to expect the voters of Washington to hold a grudge for 4 years. He should cash in his goodwill now while he still has it.

While there is some hope that McGavick will take this seat, I find it highly improbable.
DEM HOLD, but worth tracking

Nevada - John Ensign (R)
Dems made a lot of noise about this being a race. They were encouraged by Bush's narrow win and Ensign's staunch conservatism which is somewhat out of line with the Vegas mindset. However, every candidate worth a damn has taken a pass on this race. I believe Ensign would have beat a good dem candidate such as Vegas Mayor Oscar Goode, or Vegas U.S. Rep Shelly
Berkely. Ensign is a solid campaigner who almost beat Harry Reid in 1998 (losing by 400 votes) and then cruised to an open seat election in 2000. This is an easy GOP hold.
GOP HOLD

Montana - Conrad Burns (R)
This is another one where Dems think they have a chance, largely due to Brian Schweitzer winning the gov seat 2 years ago. You have to hand it to Schweitzer, he had the money and the tenacity to keep trying. He took on Burns 6 years ago and lost, ran for the house and lost 2 years after that, then finally won the gov 2 years later. Persistent, and rich. The dems don't have any more of those. There is a smorgasbord in the dem primary including former speakers, current senate president, current state auditor, former secretary of state, and other state office holders. Burns dispatches whichever one of these B-teamers comes out of the primary.
GOP HOLD

Wyoming - Craig Thomas (R)
It's Wyoming. Thomas wins 3rd term easy.
GOP HOLD

Utah - Orrin Hatch (R)
The biggest danger Hatch faces is from a GOP state Rep who may challenge him in the Primary. It seems highly unlikely such a challenge would be successful. Even if it is, it is even more unlikely the Dems pick up the seat.
GOP HOLD

Arizona - Jon Kyl (R)
Kyl will probably face Jim Pederson, the DEM chair in Arizona and rich guy. Arizona is still a pretty red state and I have trouble thinking that a party hack has any chance of unseating a fairly popular incumbent. I'm somewhat worried about Arizona overall, especially if the GOP fails at Hispanic outreach, but I don't think this is the year Arizona goes purple.
GOP HOLD

New Mexico - Jeff Bingaman (D)
The GOP has rolled out the B team for a possible challenge. The problem is, New Mexico is a light shade of blue and Bingaman will be seeking his 5th term. Unless Heather Wilson gives up her house seat (which the GOP would lose if she did) this won't be a race. And even then I'd give Bingaman a large edge.
DEM HOLD

North Dakota - Kent Conrad (D)
Now we're talking! Conrad is a deep blue senator in a blood red state. He has been fortunate for many years since the GOP has had an awfully weak bench. But no longer, now they have extremely popular governor John Hoeven who won re-election with 70% in 2004. Hoeven is being wooed by Rove and the White House, but has not yet entered the race. My feeling is that he will enter the race. If he does, he wins. If not and the GOP has to go to the bench, Conrad likely holds but it would be wise to keep tabs on this race.
GOP PICKUP

Nebraska - Ben Nelson (D)
There are a slew of GOPers who want a piece of Nelson in this red state. They include a rich Ameritrade exec, Stenberg who lost last time, the current AG, the current party chair, and former gov Johanns and current gov Heineman are still being recruited. Nelson has done a pretty good job of maintaining a moderate record and will probably be tougher to beat than all these GOPers think. However, I think he is ripe for the picking and so long as the primary voters don't saddle us with a has been, Nelson goes down.
GOP PICKUP

Texas - Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R)
Kay finally gave up the flirtation of challenging Rick Perry for Gov and will seek re-election. She wins easily.
GOP HOLD

Minnesota - Mark Dayton (D) Retiring
This race is US Rep Mark Kenedy (R) vs.
Patty Wetterling (D) - Patty lost a house seat to Kennedy by 8 points last time in a conservative district. She would no doubt do better in a statewide race. The house race did her good, since early on she was described as an inept amateur for most of the race, but had grown into the candidate's role by the end of the campaign. She is the dems best chance to hold this seat, but even then it's 50-50.

Amy Klobuchar (D) - The Hennepin County attorney is the darling of the party and leads in money and endorsements. She is a solid politician, but would not garner the sympathy of Wetterling or the name ID. She is a viable candidate and give the dems a serious shot at holding this seat, but I'd give Kennedy the nod over her.

Kelly Doran (D) - Rich guy who wants to raise taxes. Won't win primary, endorsement, or general.

Mike Ciresi (D) - Not yet in the race and may stay out. Klobuchar has done a good job of rallying the party around her, Wetterling's name ID is much higher, and Doran is just as rich. Really has no shot.

My gut tells me Kennedy wins, but it will be razor close. It will help that it's not a presidential year, which tends to bring out the lefties in MN.
GOP PICKUP

Missouri - Jim Talent (R)
Talent dispatched with widower Jean Carnahan 4 years ago and will likely trounce whoever the dems put up. The Dems are begging Gov loser Claire McKaskill to run. Claire did beat a dem gov in the primary two years ago, but was then crunched in the general. Same result here.
GOP HOLD

Michigan - Debbie Stabenow (D)
When I think of the shrill, liberal woman, I think of Stabenow. Sadly, Michigan is a blue state and all the blue chippers on the GOP side are waiting for Carl Levin to retire. There is a small chance that black minister Keith Butler makes this interesting, but not likely. Stabenow wins.
DEM HOLD

Indiana - Dick Lugar (R)
He has no opponent in this red state. I like his chances.
GOP HOLD

Tennessee - Bill Frist (R) Retiring
US Rep from Memphis Harold Ford Jr. (D) is the man to beat. He's already on the airwaves, but his family keeps showing up on the police blotter, and Harold Ford Sr. was considered as corrupt as they come. I honestly don't think Jr. is corrupt, but everyone in his family a generation older is. This won't help. The GOP has a smorgasbord in the primary. My hope is that gov loser Van Hillearly doesn't get it, and that US Rep Marsha Blackburn is the pick. She is very conservative, but it helps that she's attractive and female - softens the edge. Ideally, Frist gives up his term limit pledge and quixotic presidential hopes and runs for re-election. Overall, this is trouble for the GOP. TN is a red state, but Ford is a good candidate.
DEM PICKUP

Mississippi - Trent Lott (R)
No identified opponent in a red state. Despite his demotion from leader, he wins easily.
GOP HOLD

Ohio - Mike DeWine (R)
DeWine is a pansy GOPer who is part of the GOP's problems in Ohio - mainly moderation and corruption. His son got blasted in OH-2 House primary, and he may also face a primary challenge. Right now, Jerry Springer is his biggest opponent. However, a couple of more serious Dem candidates are still weighing a run or holding their house seats (Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown). If either of those guys gets in, kiss DeWine goodbye. I see this happening and you'll see me shed no tears.
DEM PICKUP

Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum (R)
Santorum, despite being a two term incumbent, is trailing Bob Casey Jr by 10 points. Bob is the state treasure and son of former and popular gov Bob Casey Sr. Santorum is in trouble, right up there with Rod Gramms in 2000. His career is over.
DEM PICKUP

Florida - Bill Nelson (R)
Nelson got this seat in a good year against a bad opponent. If those conditions hold up, he'll be back. A bad opponent? Right now that would be GOP front runner Katherine Harris who polls about 8 points behind Nelson. A good opponent would be Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher who are currently squaring off in the GOP primary for gov. Both men currently beat Nelson in the polls by 5 points. Ideally these guys get together and sort things out. A glorious candidate would be Jeb Bush, but he continues to maintain that he's seeking no office in 2006 or 2008. Unless Harris is dislodged, Nelson holds. I hold out hope for Crist or Gallagher and a GOP win.
GOP PICKUP

Virginia - George Allen (R)
Allen's only real danger comes from a challenge from Gov. Mark Warner. If Warner is a good party guy, he'll take on Allen and this race becomes a tossup. If Warner is greedy, he'll sit this out and run for Prez in 2008. If Warner is smart he will run for geriatric Sen. John Warner's senate seat in 2008. Warner's pretty smart.
GOP HOLD

Maryland - Paul Sarbannes (D) Retiring
Black Lt. Gov Micheal Steele is the likely GOP candidate, and creates a good deal of hope in this sky blue state. The dem field is packed but there are really only two serious contenders - white US Rep Ben Cardin and black NAACP head and former US Rep Kweisi Mfume. It may seem gratuitous to throw race around, but race is everything in this race. Polling shows Cardin beating Steele by 5 points by holding the white vote. Steele beats Mfume by 5 points by getting the white vote. But Mfume beats Cardin in a Dem primary by getting the black vote, which is everything in MD Dem primaries. Now there are a lot of candidates in the primary, and they may skew the dynamics for a Cardin win. But I see Mfume winning the primary and losing the general.
GOP PICKUP

Delaware - Thomas Carper (D)
Former Gov. Carper beat GOP geriatric lion Bill Roth in 2006. The only person on the GOP bench who has a chance, and not a very good one at that, is US Rep Mike Newcastle. Newcastle has bowed out of the race and will probably not run for senate unless there is an open seat.
DEM HOLD

New Jersey - John Corzine (D) Retiring?
Corzine is currently running for gov and is winning in the polls by 7 - 10 points. Assuming Corzine is out of the way and this is a an open seat, things get mildly interesting. The GOP has Tom Kean Jr, a state sen and son of former gov and 9/11 commissioner Tom Kean Sr. He is the best they can do. The Dems have many choices amongst their house delegation, but their best choice is acting gov Richard Codey, who also happens to be extremely popular. Corzine will get to play a part if he wins the gov seat by picking his replacement for the next year.

There are many dynamics at play, including the post 9/11 shift to the GOP that has thrown some bleach on that New Jersey blue. Ultimately we need to keep tabs on this race, but my best guess is the dems hold.
DEM HOLD

New York - Hillary Clinton (D)
Hillary and the NY Dems will have a cake walk in 2006 with Pataki not running for Gov and Pirro not running for senate. Rudy is being asked to run for the senate or the gov seat, either of which he leads in the polls by 5 points - but Rudy has his eye on 2008. Why would he squander his presidential chances with a tough race in NY? Hillary wins easy.
DEM HOLD

Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee (R)
Chaffee is the most liberal republican in the senate. A party switch isn't out of the question, and his vote is rarely counted on. He also lives in a deep blue state and was polling way behind Rep. Jim Langevin. Langevin eventually bowed out, with a lot of suspicion that Chuck Schumer chased him off because of his pro-life views. Now Chucky is stuck with Sec. State Matt Brown who is young, shrill, and polls 15 points below Chaffee.
GOP HOLD - I guess

Connecticut - Joe Lieberman (D)
Lieberman's biggest challenge will be facing down a liberal peacenik college professor in the primary. Not a single GOPer of note has stepped up to challenge for this seat, and even the GOPers of note would get smoked.
DEM HOLD

Mass - Teddy Kennedy (D)
It's hard to beat someone with no one. It is looking increasingly likely that Kennedy's biggest opposition will once again come from the Libertarian party.
DEM HOLD

Vermont - Jim Jeffords (I) Retiring
Jumping Jim is out, and the front runner to replace him is another (I) - socialist Bernie Sanders. On the GOP side all we know is that Gov Jim Douglas will not run. A slew of former speakers, Lt. Govs, and state office holders are still considering. I find it sickening that we'll have a self avowed socialist in the senate (although Bernie's politics are identical to most New England Dems) but its going to happen. There is a slight chance the GOPer will catch fire, but don't hold your breath.
DEM HOLD - I HOLD

Maine - Olympia Snowe (R)
So far Snowe is unopposed. I find this surprising. Maine is a blue state and even a B-lister would stand a reasonable shot. Till then, Snowe is re-elected.
GOP HOLD

West Virginia - Robert Byrd (D)
The geriatric Klan Kleagle is in real trouble... if US REP Shelly Moore Capito runs. Byrd's liberalism has caught up to him in a state that went for Bush twice. Moore has polled even to slightly ahead of Byrd, but has not yet committed. If she runs, she puts the old Byrd out to pasture. I think she might.
GOP PICKUP

Wisconsin - Herb Kohl (D)
The good natured rich guy dem will cruise to re-election. If he ever faces real trouble, he can buy his way out of it. However, there is a glimmer of GOP hope in former Gov. Tommy Thompson. However, its getting late in the game and I don't see it happening.
DEM HOLD

So lets check the score card:
DEM HOLD: 12
GOP HOLD: 12
DEM PICK UP: 3
GOP PICK UP: 6
NEXT SENATE: 58 GOP - 41 DEM - 1 IND (DEM)

Juice and Jacks

2005-08-08T12:45:00.000-07:00

ESPN has been deleted from my web bookmarks. They have taken everything I love and put it behind the "INSIDER" pay per view. Once again, I find myself going to my friends at Fox in FoxSports and leaving the old media ESPN behind.

Now don't get me wrong, I'll still watch ESPN on tv. In fact I watched many baseball games this weekend and a snippet or two of Sportscenter. It would seem that ESPN thinks that the Rafeal Palmeiro steroid scandal is the worst thing to ever happen to baseball and that his Hall of Fame future is shot. ESPN sugested that the scandal eclipses Pete Rose and the Black Sox. It doesn't. Those two scandals put the integrity of the game seriously in doubt. The sad fact is that Palmeiro's steroid cheating hardly impacted the game, at least not more than better equipment, or in this case chemistry, has impacted comparisons between generations.

Since MLB failed to seriously test for steroids in the 80's and 90's, most of the sluggers are under a cloud, but they all had the same advantages in a chemically induced way. Palmeiro might be the only guilty slugger caught red-handed, but there is little doubt that Bonds, McGuire and Giambi used. Sosa, Bret Boone, Juan Gonzalez, and Ivan Rodriquez are also under serious suspicion.

It would be a tragedy if Palmeiro was kept out of the hall while sluggers who wised up, retired, or hid on the DL were let in. The fact is, steroids were a part of the game. My only hope is that sluggers such as Griffey and McGriff who have over 500 HR and Zero suspicion get extra special consideration. I'm not too worried about Griffey, he'll be a first ballot selection. However, the unspectacular McGriff who just managed to hit 35 HR every year for 20 years is likely to be overlooked until there is a weak year.

Quick Quiz

2005-08-07T23:04:00.000-07:00

Lest my nerd-like exterior shine through - take this great, short quiz and find out which character from Star Trek you are.

I'm unsurprised to find out my result:

Quark

A shrewd businessman with an ear to ground, you always hear opportunities before anyone else. Your greed is off-set by compassion which you try to hide.

Your mother says you are full of spit and vinegar, or maybe worse.

How Bush Saved the Environment

2005-08-04T10:56:00.000-07:00

I'm not one for social engineering through the tax code. If I had my way, there would be a flat tax and absolutely no deductions for owning a house, going to college, living in North Minneapolis, working in an enterprise zone, locating a baseball team in town, buying groceries, or low flow flushing.

However, this is the system we have and the recently passed energy bill includes some tweaking to the current system that gives people tax credits for purchasing hybrid vehicles. This includes a tax credit of $3000 for the hybrid Ford Escape.

I happen to own a 2004 Escape, not the hybrid version, but it is a perfectly capable small SUV. While it is the 'small' SUV, it is as big as the '98 Explorer. As a good conservative, I do believe in economics and that people will largely behave as predicted to maximize their benefit. With the addition of the tax credit, these hybrids may be hitting our streets in serious numbers.

A 2006 Ford Escape - 4cyl, 153 horse power, 4wd, Blue Books for $21,759
It also gets 21 MPG in the city.

A 2006 Ford Escape Hybrid - 4cyl, 133 horsepower, 4 wd, Blue Books for $29,125
It gets 33 MPG in the city.

Lets assume 15,000 miles driven a year and an average gas price of $2.25/gallon.
The hybrid needs 455 gallons for a gas bill of $1022.
The standard model needs 715 gallons for a bill of $1607.
Gas saving - $585 annually

Hybrid cost: $29,125
- Standard Cost $21,759
- tax credit $3,000
= $4,366

That $4,366 is still pretty significant since it would take 7.5 years to break even -(for you financial types, longer if you discount over time).

However, if you get a top of the line Escape with a 200hp V6, you'll pay $25,653. After the tax credit, a hybrid is only $472 more! The difference is made up in the first year of gas savings.

Bottom line, for consumers who can afford a top end Escape, they have an equal dollar option between the powerful Escape that can tow boats, or the economical Escape that will seriously reduce future gas bills. It would seem that Bush has single handedly leveled the economic playing field for hybrids. As most conservatives have been telling environmentalists for year, the market will set you free, clean the air, and lead to environmental solutions.

A "Special" Addiction

2005-08-03T11:01:00.000-07:00

I love politics! Especially elections. And last night we were given the rare treat of an August special election between GOPer Jean Schmidt and Dem Paul Hackett for the US Congress seat in Ohio's 2nd District (near Cinci). Schmidt pulled off a 4 point victory winning 52-48. To put some perspective on this, Bush won with 64% and Rob Portman (our new Trade Rep and previous GOP officehoder in the 2nd) won with 70% in 2004. A large lead in a 'safe' seat was squandered. Today the Dems are glowing with happiness about how this sets up a political tsunami in 2006 that will be on par with 1974 and 1994. If the 12 generic GOP points squandered by Schmidt holds up nation wide, they are right.

But...

This election wasn't a referendum on Bush and the national GOP in particular. It was certainly an issue, but one of many. First, let's give some credit where credit is due. An old sports cliche is that the only important stat is W's. Last night the GOP put a W on the board and held an open seat. In real politique, the Dems gained no additional power last night.

This election was about...

The Iraq War - Hackett is an Iraq war vet. He is personally against the war and endeared himself to liberals with his harsh words of Bush and the war. This helped him raise beaucoup bucks as a minor cause celeb from the Dean/Micheal Moore wing of the left. Back in the 2nd, he ran clips of Bush praising the troups for serving and then coming onscreen to say how proud he was to answer that call. Hackett did a masterful job of using his views to raise money, and his biography of being a Marine vet to appeal to the GOP dominated and military sympathetic district.

This strategy may have worked had Rush Limbaugh not spent the bulk of his show exposing the contradictions, or the half million the NRCC dumped in the final days. If Dems could do this nation wide in multiple places, they can water down what Rush was able to accomplish by focusing his show on one election. However, how many anti-war, liberal, marine corp, Iraq vets can they recruit and run? My guess is not many. I would also consider this the largest factor in making this election close, but not a factor Dems can easily replicate in 2006.

The Suckiest Bunch of Sucks who ever Sucked (aka - The Ohio GOP Leadership) - Ohio has about the lousiest bunch of Republicans running their party and state. Sen. Voinovich is best known for crying on the senate floor - literally weeping - while discussing his opposition to Bush nominee John Bolton to the UN. Sen. Mike DeWine most recently made news when he joined the "Gang of 14" to give Harry Reid a victory in the Filibuster compromise. A few weeks later, his son Pat DeWine who had been leading the polls in the Republican primary for this very seat, dropped from 1st to a distant 3rd - all of which attributed to holding the name DeWine. Then there is Gov. Taft who led his legistlative majorities into a tax raising bonanza. Schmidt, being a good party girl and a bad conservative, voted for a few of these tax hikes.

This crappy GOP leadership has been a huge issue in Ohio and helped to suppress GOP turnout. In the GOP primary, there were 45,000 voters. In the actual election, the GOP recieved only 59,000. You generally expect a doubling or even tripling of turnout in the general over the primary. Hackett went from 15,000 in the primary to 55,000 in the general.

The Iraq war helped get Hackett votes, the GOP Leadership capped Schmidt's support. Unfortunately for the Dems, this is another condition that won't be replicated nation wide. In most states, the GOP leadership is fairly decent. Even in MN where Pawlenty caved to miniscule tax hikes on cigarettes - at least he caved and can point to Dean Johnson as the bad guy. Taft and the Ohio GOP led the charge for massive tax hikes. I'll give the Dems credit for creating these conditions in many states, but the antipathy found in Ohio is unique.

Open Seat and Special Elections- Open seats always tend to be closer. The fact that the GOP was not running an incumbent meant that the new GOPer would be hard pressed to perform as well as the popular incumbent. Since this was a special election, turnout would be low. This district averages 300,000 voters in Presidential years, 200,000 in off years, and this election only brought out 114,000. Those 114,000 tend to be harder left or right. If you can get your base out, you can win in any district. Even the dems who lost in the previous years 70-30 to Portman still had similiar vote totals as Schmidt. Now this is encouraging to Dems. It suggests that they won't have to work as hard to turn out their voters. GOP beware - the dems are motivated and will show up to vote.

But in the end, that's the only national advantage Dems currently have. Newsflash: Democrats vote for Democrats.

Return from the Left Coast

2005-08-02T10:15:00.000-07:00

I have returned from the West and my first trip to the Bay area. It was cut short by a day because America West Airlines broke their plane, and I arrived at 4:30PM on Friday instead of 11:30 PM on Thursday. However, I did get to share some time with a lovely couple of Bush supporters on the way out.

Last bit of consumer news - our trunk on the Camry - rented at Hertz - refused to close after Sunday morning. Much tape and piling of luggage in the back seat later - we got a $30 voucher out of it.

Other observations of the left coast:

-The Geography is visually stunning, especially around the Golden Gate Bridge where the Bay meets the Pacific and is ringed by the coastal range. However, those hill covered in dead grass, those are not "Golden Hills". It's just dead grass.

-Berkeley is overrated. I've seen many a liberal college town in my day, and Berkeley doesn't fit the hype. If you want to hang in a freaked out, hippie liberal environment AND have a hell of a time doing it - just go to Madison. There is none finer. Congratulations Madtown, you have put Beserkely to shame.

-Those little dashes on the interstate aren't what I thought. Going into the atrocious Bay area traffic, I thought they were lane dividers, uh-uh. They are motorcycle lanes. And it turns out they are perfectly legal motorcycle lanes. I haven't had so many close encounters of the Harley kind since I was in Milwaukee for the 100 year Harley-Davidson anniversary.

-San Francisco has a certain reputation. However, I was hard pressed to see much evidence of it. During my few trips to Seattle I saw much more overt, public, and dare I say pornographic, displays.

-San Francisco has a population of 798,000. San Jose - 923,000.

-The A's will be a playoff team. The Giants will not.

Going Coastal

2005-07-28T11:39:00.000-07:00

Not that anyone expects me to post regularly, but I shall be even more irregular this weekend. A high school friend of mine is currently living out his dream in San Jose working for Lawrence-Livermore making cool super secret weapons with his Electornics Engineering PhD. I can only imagine the evil contraption he has in store for our future enemies...mwa-ha-ha!

Anyway, I shall be out there and not here - internet access may not be a priority. Don't expect any posts.

Mark Dayton - A Glowing Blue Lamp for Freaks Everywhere

2005-07-27T13:30:00.000-07:00

I'll probably get in trouble for this - so let me do my best to first give all credit to Roll Call. The following comes from that fine, subcriber only, publication Roll Call. It was Roll Call and all it's greatness that has brought us this - oh, and National Journal too:

Roll Call'sAkers asks "if a certain soft drink making" Sen. Mark Dayton (D-MN) and his staff jittery?" Someone, "or many people" in Dayton's office are "guzzling Diet Coke by the caseload." On 7/26 Dayton office manager Kristin Gentile sent an e-mail "with the eerie two-word subject line: Diet Coke." Gentile: "On Thursday, I bought 18 cases of Diet Coke. ... We are now down to four. ... I think we can all agree that 168 cans of Diet Coke should have lasted us far longer than two business days! ... Unlike the water supply, the Coke is paid for by Mark personally. Please, please, please be respectful of his money ... and limit the amount of Coke you consume to a reasonable one or two cans." Dayton spokesperson Chris Lisi "rather testily" said "usually reporters call me about stories that make sense. ... Why are you calling me about Diet Coke?" Akers on her response: "Ok -- just lay off the Diet Cokes, give us a call back, and we'll be happy to explain!" (7/27).

Denzel - Decent Human Being

2005-07-27T07:57:00.000-07:00

Most people generally give others the benefit of the doubt when determining
whether they are decent human beings.  This is true in my case as well. 
You generally have to prove to me that you are not one.  However I do have
one exception, and that is Hollywood.

In hollywood's case, I need definitive proof that they are decent.  I
recieved a good deal of evidence concerning Denzel this morning:


>Don't know whether you heard about this but Denzel Washington and
>his family visited the troups at Brook Army Medical Center, in San
>Antonio,Texas (BAMC). This is where soldiers that
>have been evacuated from Germany come to be hospitalized in the
>States, especially burn victims. They have buildings there called
>Fisher Houses. The Fisher House is a hotel where soldiers' families
>can stay, for little or no charge, while their soldier is staying in
>the hospital. BAMC has quite a few of these houses on base but as
>you can imagine, they are almost completely filled most of the time.
>
>While Denzel Washington was visiting BAMC, they gave him a tour of
>one of the Fisher Houses. He asked how much one of them would cost
>to build. He took his check book out and wrote a check for the full
>amount right there on the spot. The soldiers overseas were amazed
>to hear this story and want to get the word out to the American
>public, because it warmed their hearts to hear it.
>
>A true American and friend to all in uniform!


Amen.

Union Yips

2005-07-26T19:00:00.000-07:00

The AFL-CIO just lost some serious backing this week. The last successful 'manly' unions including Teamsters, SEIU, Food and Commercial Workers and Unite Here have split. There are macro and micro implications for the AFL-CIO.

In losing the Teamsters they lose the one Union that is the most recognizable, most easily embraced by both political parties, and has the most recognizable leader in James Hoffa Jr. Maybe you saw the movie. In a macro sense, Teamsters are about moving goods around America, and you just can't outsource that. The SEIU has been the most agressive and successful union at organizing the last decade. Their leader is a liberal nut, but he's a nut who pours his energy into union drives as opposed to legistlation. In the macro, service employees are surging while manufacturing employees are eroding. The Food and Commercial Union has been taking on the big prize - WalMart. They have seen little success so far, but they are persistent. In a Macro sense, they're going after Walmart - enough said.

The AFL-CIO is now left with two widely disparate groups, who's only unifying factor is the election of Democrats. The old, shrinking, more 'manly' industrial unions such as the UAW and AMFA on the one hand - and AFCSME, the teachers union, and other 'girly' and growing unions that live off of tax dollars.

The splinter unions have argued that the AFL-CIO has spent too much effort on politics and not enough on organizing. I'm mildly surprised that these splinter unions were able to recognize that their bottom line is best served by a growing economy rather than government largesse.

The Republican in me is loving this. These large unions are pulling their dollars, manpower and focus away from elections. The absence of union influence will only allow the Moveon types a less cluttered message that will continue to scare Americans away from the left, and the vast effort at GOTV will suffer as well.

The manager in me is spooked. You now have 4 unions focusing on organizing the workplace and another shunted union that will probably try to compete. This means that hundreds of more workplaces will undergo the arduous unionizing drives which will kill employee morale and productivity. Target #1? The war for Walmart. This doesn't bode well for the old stock portfolio.

Just Enough of My Blog, But Way too Much of Yours

2005-07-22T10:03:00.000-07:00

Over at Marty's blog, he goes over some stats with us. He is about the 70,000th most read blog which puts him in the top half of one percent of all bloggers. Clearly there are WAY too many people blogging, and it's time somebody did something about this. I mean, c'mon, who is going to read my blog when there are millions of other blogs distracting and confusing all of my potential readers?

It's time for all you other bloggers out there to stop. We need to institute some "voluntary" blogger abortions. I say we start with all Delaware based blogs, because seriously, who cares? Next we should look to the inspirational and successful blogger reduction programs in China and Iran. Those governments have had a high degree of success using new technology to weed out millions of blogs, of which most would have been of poor quality or irrelevant material.

Blogging is growing by leaps and bounds, and unless we stop the growth, and institute programs to reduce blogging levels, we will simply have an unsustainable situation that will eventually lead to the crashing of the internet. WE MUST ACT NOW!

Now on another and completely unrelated note, I read an interview with John Seager who is the CEO of Population Connection, or formerly known as Zero Population Growth. If you can bear to read through his confused and muddled manner of speech, you can read it here. Seager is worried there are too many people. It's not the people for people's sake, it's that people lead to global warming and that leads to all sorts of bad things. It makes me wonder what buggaboo Malthus pointed to 400 years ago when Global Warming wasn't a readily available harm...

(There were population concerns 400 years ago?)

Yep, goes all the way back to the later Roman Empire. We've always been worried about too many people, and yet - here we are).

Seagar was asked what the ideal population of the Earth was. His answer wasn't direct, but it was certainly interesting: "The impact is extraordinary, and I have to say that I'm not sure even zero population growth gets us to the point where we can address it. But I think we have to look at that as some kind of final goal."

Hmmm... so even zero growth won't work, eh? Well, then let the extermination begin!

Step One: Abortions - and lots of 'em! $2 billion worth to be exact. You can abort a bunch of brown and yellow babies with $2 billion!

(Note from appalled readers - Gilles you racist! Seagar never said abort any particular race. How dare you assert such a thing!)

Oh I dare, I dare. Let's see here... white russian population - decreasing; white European population - decreasing, white North American population - holding steady. Now the dirty little secret of the population growth activists is that the only growing populations are all those with brown or yellow hues. You stop any more of them from coming into the world, you get your "zero population growth". This is pretty convenient for the latent racists.

Step two is for John Seagar and the Silver Condom Band to distribute them far and wide and fully discredit abstinence programs. I think my favorite example of muddled thinking comes from this quote: "We would love to see an amendment offered to the effect that all sex education programs in this country have to be medically accurate. That amendment would fail in the House of Representatives because it would mean a death knell for the abstinence-only programs."

Riiiiiiight, because abstinence is not medically accurate... Seems to me it works every time it's tried. I even think the medical community might back me up on that one. But what do I know, I'm just a crazy puritanical reactionary.

Speaking of crazy puritanical reactionaries, step three is to follow the successful, "scientific", programs instituted by Iran in 1989. Iran dropped from an average of 5 kids per family to 2.5. Now those Mullahs know how to curb population growth! Seagar didn't go into any details of HOW this was achieved, but I'm going to take a wild guess and assume their methods wouldn't fly over here. Remember, this isn't John Ashcroft's America anymore.

At this point some of my more clever readers might recall first few paragraphs of this post. If any outrage was felt by the bloggers, I apologize. But I encourage you to bottle that outrage and realize Seagar wants the same thing - however, instead of killing off a cool internet publishing toy, he wants to kill off populations of PEOPLE!!!!

Sure, it might be easier if we could just kill every last person in this world who might annoy or inconvenience us. But we generally rise above the frictions of sharing space with others with manners and a good dose of technology.

I suggest Seager and his ilk show us some real leadership on this issue and go take a flying leap. Or at the very least, terminate all their blogs.

Audio Hose

2005-07-21T21:06:00.000-07:00

Blogging is great, but sometimes it's just not enough to be able to spew your opinions on the home computer. No, sometimes it actually leaves the house, drinks a few beers, gets smoked at bar room trivia - and feels the need to blog RIGHT NOW, or else it gets the hose again.

Thanks to the good people at audio blogger, that is now possible. Marty has posted this interview of my spoken thoughts on blogging on his site: http://martinandrade.blogspot.com

Marty also has a radio show that will debut in St. Cloud Sunday the 31. So if you get radio from St. Cloud, tune into the station that has Rush on it, and hear Marty instead for a few hours.

Supreme Run Down

2005-07-21T09:07:00.000-07:00

The general feeling towards the current make up of the Court is that it is closely divided with conservatives holding a slim 5-4 majority, with Sandra Day O'Connor as a swing vote of sorts. But let's break this down.

On the Liberal side of things there are 3 rocked ribbed liberals who always vote with each other - David Souter (Bush I), John Paul Stevens (Ford) and Ruth Bader Ginsburg (Clinton).

On the conservative side, there are only two rock ribbed conservatives - Scalia (Reagan) and Thomas (Bush).

(Liberals 3 - Conservatives 2)

Each side also has a 90-10 guy - someone who would be considered rock ribbed except for a few issues. For the liberals it is Breyer (Clinton) and the conservatives have Rehnquist (Reagan) who takes some liberal views on campaign finance. But overall, each side can pretty much rely on these guys.

(Liberals 4 - Conservatives 3)

In the middle we have a couple of GOP appointees who lean right, but surprise no one when they veer left. Anthony Kennedy is generally with the conservatives and I'd score him a 75-25. We lost him on Kelo, the property rights case, and a few other annoying decisions.

(Liberals 4.25 - Conservatives 3.75)

Sandra pretty much split the difference and approached the bench like a politician. If the decision was quietly conservative on issues like federalism, should could be counted on. On larger issues such as abortion, affirmative action, church and state issues - she would stick her finger in the air, take a poll, hold a focus group - and base her decision on the best marketing info Madison Avenue could buy.

(Liberals 4.65 - Conservatives 4.35)

Ideally our judges would make sound law based on the principles outlined in the constitution - liberty, life and freedom - and let popular opinion be damned. Sandy was a former politician, and you know what they say in the hood - you can take the girl of out politics, but you can't take the politics out of the girl.

The problem with political decision making by judges is that the difference splitting fails to settle the point of law and leads to a defacto "Lawyer Employment Protection Act of 2005". So I won't miss O'Connor.

The subtraction of O'Connor and the inclusion of Roberts will certainly shift the court away from a politically influenced court, to a slim conservative majority with the occasional shockingly bad decision by Kennedy. My assumption is that Roberts will mimic his mentor William Rehnquist and will behave as a 90-10 conservative. This might be optimistic, but we shall see.

(Liberals 4.35 - Conservatives 4.65)

Besides O'Connor, there are potentially 3 more judges who will need replacing during Bush's second term. He may have the opportunity to complete re-shape the court.

Rehnquist is on his way out, one way or another. Conservatives need an equal replacement in terms of ideology, but it is highly unlikely that a jurist will meet his legendary greatness as a judge. Rehnquist will go down with the likes of Oliver Wendell Holmes and John Marshall in the history books.

Ideally Bush will use this pick to put in a rocked ribbed Hispanic conservative along the lines of Miguel Estrada. This would be good politically and replace one conservative lion with another. This would also ensure a conservative majority for the next 10 years. However is AG Alberto Gonzalez were the pick, we would revert back to the court we have today, assuming Roberts in a 90-10 guy.

(Liberals 4.25 - Conservatives 4.75)

Liberal John Paul Stevens is 85. There is nothing other than his advanced age that suggests he will need replacement. But at 85, and 3 years to go in the Bush term - it doesn't take an actuary to deny this guy a life insurance policy. Stevens will go down as a footnote on the court. He didn't embarrass himself or wow the legal minds. But he is a staunch liberal and losing him will be a blow. Here I'd like to see Bush celebrate his liberal legacy by appointing the first black female to the court - Janice Rogers Brown - who of course was recently appointed to federal appeals court and consistently won 70% of the vote in the San Francisco area for re-election to the California Supreme Court. This would lead to a solidly conservative court and negate the weird decisions of Kennedy. At this point, you would see a lot of abortion laws short of Roe v. Wade being overturned - such as parental permission and partial birth.

(Liberals 3.25 - Conservatives 5.75)

Ruth Bader Ginsburg is young by Court standards at 72, however she is a recent colon cancer survivor and her health considers to suffer. Her vacancy on the court would be no loss to the legal community. She is considered the high court's only lightweight and struggles not to embarrass herself or liberals. She does best when she keeps quiet and just joins Souter or Stevens.

Her loss would decimate the liberal influence on the court, leaving just Breyer and Souter. If Bush had it in him to eliminate Roe, he would put in another good conservative. If he wished to keep Roe around, we could expect Alberto Gonzales to be appointed.

Alberto Court (Liberals 2.65 - Conservatives 6.35)

Assuming this scenario, Bush would have established himself as the greatest consolidator of government power since Andrew Jackson. He would be credited with painting Texas a deep shade of red at every level, solidifying the GOP majority in the US House which was slowly eroding in 1998 and 2000. He will have completed a solid 10 seat GOP senate majority - not filibuster proof, but plenty big to offset crackpot moderates. And the court will have gone from a slight lean to solid right for the next 15-20 years.

And if, just if, a GOPer can take the Presidency in 2008, the impact on the federal bureaucracy will be cemented with an onslaught of retirements and replacements that are due. Something like 50% of all federal employees are retiring in the next 10 years. If a GOP administration can guide that process for the next 7-8 years, the impact will be significant.

John Jacob Gingleheimer Roberts

2005-07-20T10:07:00.000-07:00

Last night the media was all atwitter staking out the white house to figure out who the next Supreme Court Justice would be. Towards the end they started to eliminate people based on flight times to DC and the tizzy just kept growing. I figured Bush would do the same thing he did the last time he had a secret nominee - pick Dick Cheney.

Turns out I was wrong, but what do I know about judges? The only judges I could name are the ones tied up in the recent controversy that resulted in the compromise by the 14 senators. Since Roberts wasn't part of this, I have no idea who he is or what he's all about. I turned to trusted sources this morning and got a mixed bag. The boys at Powerline know the law and they like Roberts. Freddy Beetle Barnes knows Washington (of which Roberts is an established figure) and considers the pick to be timid and uninspired. Rush had Giulliani on the show and Rudy gave Roberts a thumbs up. This is confusing on a couple of levels. Rush doesn't do interviews, and the few I recall involved someone with the word "President" in their title. Rudy isn't exactly a star of the Rush right and is considered soft or wrong on abortion, gay rights, and other social issues. That being said, barring a Jeb candidacy I'm going with Rudy or George Allen in 2008.

Ann Coulter fired a shot against Roberts, but I don't take her seriously. Schumer was his cheerful hostile self, but that's a given. Reid could only stoke the Rove-Plame controversy and suggested this was all part of a great conspiracy to cover up the TRUTH. All the other typical George Soros funded/Bush Hating orgs made the noises you'd suspect - but official Democratia was largely silent and acquiescent... and that's what I consider the most troubling. It could be the Bush surprise factor caught these folks with their pants down, and those liberals who know him on the DC scene simply know him as an affable fellow - as his reputation suggests. Maybe in the month or two Leahy is taking to drag out the process official liberal DC will wake up and take up the attack.

I'm with the general consensus that Roberts will easily be confirmed. But how will he rule once he's on the oligarchic throne of 9? Sounds like a good topic for another blog.

Dog Park Walker Reports...

2005-07-15T12:08:00.000-07:00

One of my personal philosophies on blogs is that one should break news and offer truly unique insights and information as much as possible. Sure I could prattle on about what I had for dinner, how much sleep I didn't get, and how the man is out to get me - but outside my future self no one would care. Now I'm all for an Army of one, but an audience of one is just sad.

So today's post will continue the theme from the last three days - stories from friends about things to avoid. So far we have Sprint, the Chicago PD, and today we add St. Louis. From an anonymous friend, who's credibility I will vouch for:

"May I speak to the manager?" Just a few words that I always hate to mutter because at this point in the transaction I am usually very unhappy. Unfortunately I had to use that phrase twice in my recent visit to St. Louis, MO. The first time involved a Shell gas station.
I was pumping gas into my car and accidentally purchased a car wash at the end of my transaction. I walked into the store and asked the attendant to please remove the car wash purchase from my receipt. He looked at my receipt and slid it back across the counter and said that I was out of luck, he couldn't do anything for me. I thought this was a very odd statement and questioned him about a number that I may call to remove this charge. He said there was no such number. Still thinking he was full of $%*&, I asked to speak to the manager.

At this point he got very agitated and I think he was going to tell me there is no manager, but the manager just happened to walk up. Of course she said it would be no problem to remove the charge. It turns out the attendant just didn't know how.

The funny thing is that the tension of being outed as a liar really made this guy crack up. Lots of nervous laughter and he actually tried to walk away at one point. His manager kept asking him what was wrong and he started in with some real attitude. I thanked the manager and went on my way. The second occurrence was at the Residence Inn in St. Louis. I walk into my hotel and was greeted by the desk attendant. I said I was here to check in. She said she didn't have a reservation for me. I told her that I am positive this is the hotel. She told me there were absolutely no rooms. She swore up and down and told me that I had made a mistake. She couldn't put me in a room if she wanted to.
Still insisting that I was right, I asked to speak with the manager. At this point she called the manager and he confirmed that I DID have a reservation. She got very defensive at that point and blamed the computer and everyone else who works for Marriott.

I hand her my AMEX and she says sorry I can't take that, the computer says it is no good. I questioned her on that and she refused to call AMEX to find
out what was going on. She said I would have to do this. Finally I gave her my check card and she checked me in. The footnote for this story is that she took about 3 personal calls and stopped to watch a tv program once during this entire experience. I plan to avoid both of these business establishments in the future.

Fortunately for my friend, he did get a decent sushi dinner at something called the "Drunken Fish". So, don't go to St. Louis. But if you have to go, eat there.

GUN!!!

2005-07-14T12:33:00.000-07:00

My friend in Chicago, Geoff, had a rough time last night. He and the wife were kicking back in their apartment trying to keep cool and no doubt catching up on their first season of Scrubs DVD. The purpose of that last sentence was to establish the fact that they are typical, mild mannered, white people. If you were lost in a dark alley and came across this guy, you'd probably be prompted to ask if HE needed help.

As the night went on, they heard a disturbance in the apartment downstairs. There were some raised voices, sounds of furniture and other items being disturbed, and eventually some crashing sounds. All of which was behavior atypical of these neighbors.

Geoff put a call down to his neighbors to ask if everything was alright, but the phone was answered by someone who was definitely not one of the effiminately voiced gentlemen who lived downstairs. This new, gruff and angry voiced demanded who was calling and Geoff explained he was the neighbor. The call didn't end well so the next call was 911.

The situation was explained to the dispatcher, who then asked that everything be repeated. Before the conversation ended there was a loud knock on HIS door and an angry voice demanding to be let in and the term, "I know you're in there!" was shouted through the door.

Geoff grabbed his hunting shot gun which hadn't been used in a couple of years. He had to get it unzipped out of the travel bag and the weapon was unloaded. He figured he could shout back through the door that the police were on the way and follow that up with the unmistakable (sha-SHINK!) of a shot gun to convince this angry door knocker to knock elsewhere.

In the time it took Geoff to hear the first knocks on his door, put down the phone, retrieve the gun from the closet, and unsheathe it - the door knocker eventually declared he was Chicago PD. Geoff had not yet declared he was armed yet, but the yelling voice was demanding that all guns be put down. The shotgun was put back in the closet, he put his hands on his head and the wife opened the door for the door knocker.

A cop flew into the room and started demanding where the gun was. Geoff motioned towards the closet where the cop found the shot gun. The cop then put Geoff on the floor with a knee in his back and started to demand where the drugs and hand guns were.

It was finally established that there were no drugs or hand guns, and that the shot gun was registered, sort of. The registration had actually expired in January. There were about a dozen cops in the courtyard who had raided the neighbors. The neighbors weren't there and cops had confiscated a small amount of drugs from that apartment. Apparently these neighbors were small time drug dealers and the cops had a warrant to search their apartment.

It was decided by the cops that the lapsed registration of Geoff's shot gun was a worthy enough crime to confiscate the gun, put him in handcuffs, parade him outside in front of all the neighbors, and keep him in the city clink till 5 AM this morning. Despite this show of bravado, just about every cop agreed that the late registration charge would be dropped. No other charges were levied.

Geoff is taking this fairly well. He just wants the charge dropped and his gun back. I'd be going for a pound of flesh - wrongful imprisonment, no warrant for search, police brutality, lost time, wages, sleep, and reputation for being paraded out in handcuffs. I'm guessing the cops just figured "What's one guy's reputation? We could be seriously embarrassed if we don't leave this raid without at least one person in handcuffs. Much better we protect the city's reputation."

I'd try damn hard to make them pay for that little piece of PR at my expense. But then again I have a lot of free time on my hands.

Flour the the Children? Why don't you flour my %^*&!

2005-07-11T10:16:00.000-07:00

I once owned a Sprint PCS cell phone. It weighed approximately 7.8 lbs and had a sweet black leather sheathing that I sometimes confused for a dress shoe. The phone was affectionately known as the "Gromackiphone" after the guy who sold it to me. This phone was great except it wouldn't work at home, in the car, outside the city, or inside a building in the city.

I have moved onto verizon where I have had ups and downs, but not quite the drama swings. I have quite a few friends with Sprint who are happy with it. But I have one who isn't:

"My experience with Sprint this morning reinforces my perception of
them as having the worst customer service of any company I have dealt
with of their size. It is absolutely horrendous. They told me that I
needed an appointment to drop off my phone and that they couldn't see
me today at all. I was rather shocked and the receptionist girl
didn't seem interested in helping me any further. She just turned
away and did other things. I just walked out. Never do business with
Sprint PCS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Cubs - R.I.P.

2005-07-08T19:35:00.000-07:00

As a good blogger, I thought I would do some research and catch up on some baseball reading. Peter Gammons managed to blame low attendance for the Cleveland Indians on George W. Bush using only the logic a sportswriter and John Kerry could love. He then went on to mention Len Kasper and Bob Brenly as one of the top 3 broadcasting teams. I honestly don't know when Peter Gammons started doing meth...

As I write this, it looks as if the Cubs will finally snap their 8 game losing streak. Excuse me while a stifle a yawn as the Cubbies crawl within 3 games of .500, 8 games of the wild card, and within oblivion of the Cardinals. Just a wee bit too late. There are many problems with the Cubs and Jim Hendry attempted to address two of them last night.

Corey Patterson, who is in his 4 consecutive major league year was sent down to Iowa last night along with first year pro Jason Dubois. Patterson's dismissal was of his own making. A .270 OBP just doesn't cut it in the bigs, even if you are clearing a near $3M paycheck. This is probably the end of the Patterson era and we can expect the Cardinals or Braves to pick him up next year and watch him become the next Lou Brock there, because he is done in Chicago.

Jason Dubois was the victim of bad management. Dusty decided he would rather turn career journeyman Todd Hollandsworth into a starter than nurture the Cubs best power prospect since... :-( rafeal palmeiro??? that can't be right, can it?). Anyway, most major league starters have gotten 300+ AB at this point. Dubois has 142. His OBP is a measly .289 - yet his SLG is an amazing .472! Imagine if the kid actually got a chance to get some AB's and push his Avg from the .230's to the .260's. He would easily have an OPS challenging .900.

But the Cubs have other issues. For one, they were robbed blind in the Rule 5 of the big lefty Andy Sisco who is now anchoring the Royals bullpen. The bullpen has been in shambles all year, the starting rotation has had the endurance of a 7-year old school girl, and Nomar went about 3 minutes before his groin fell off.

Now the hopes of the Cubs lie with a couple of young outfielders named Pie and Murton.

But there is another... hope that is. And that is the canning of Dusty Baker. He still has a year and a half on his contract. He is clueless when it comes to managing a bullpen. He somehow managed to turn Latroy Hawkins sucking and summer day games into national race baiting issues worthy of the late great Johny Cochrane. Forget about him making a reasonable decision concerning batting strategy or base runners. And when it comes to bringing along young players with promise, uh-uh. Somehow all those development at-bats end up with guys like Tom Goodwin and Jose Macias.

But then maybe that's why Hendry sent down Dubois - to protect him from Dusty till he gets canned.

Cubs Win! 9-6. Disregard the previous.

HA-HA, Your Historical Reference has been Usurped!

2005-07-07T11:55:00.000-07:00

No theme or great thinking today, just some observations.

Maybe I'm the last person to pick up on this, I just haven't heard the requisite number of jokes and smirks - but Lance Armstrong's biking team is called "Team Discovery Channel". I am shocked at the total lack of Martin and Nelson references from the early days of the Simpsons. A french event, Martin's high pitched voice, and Nelson's shame are ingredients for comedic gold.

I wrapped up reading State of Fear the other day and I highly recommend it. Having nothing else on hand to read, I picked off a book from Franklin's book shelf - "Sons of the Profits". This book is about the founders of Seattle around 1850. The book was written in 1967 and went through some revisions through 1976. On page 9 was this gem, "Mike was to the town of Tumwater, Washington what Arthur Denny was to be to Seattle. He headed a group of seven men and their families (including George W. Bush, the first negro to settle in the territory)." Who knew?

I'll be attending blogger trivia tonight at Keegans. With any luck I will have more drinks than right answers.

The Quotable Mr. Gilles

2005-07-06T17:08:00.000-07:00

There is nothing finer in this world than shooting off an email to a reporter and than a week later being told you were quoted in their publication. Such a thing happened to me today.

Kudos go out to Ms. Helal who actually made the important, but oh so boring fees committee, into an interesting story. Far too many fee committee types and reporters get bogged down by 'spreadsheetitis'. For those uninitiated with 'spreadsheetitis', it is an affliction that haunts fees committee members and symptoms include too much knowledge of Excel and the perplexing belief that there is nothing more important in this world than the office supplies line item for the Asian club.

This story was about the secretive process the administration is taking with the hope of gaining complete control, without any consequences, of the $20 Million paid in student fees. What's interesting is that this type of behavior is fairly endemic at the U.

*A few years ago the Regents wanted to pick the new U President in secret. They were later taken to court by the local media and lost resoundingly.

* During the Coffman renovations of the STUDENT Union that was paid for by STUDENT fees, the administration overrode the Coffman administration and arranged for all new revenues to flow to administration coffers, and not towards student programming or offsetting the $100 yearly increase in fees the renovation cost.

* Just a few months ago a strategy committee finished its recommendations, the most controversial of which was to close General College. While I agreed with that particular recommendation, President Bruiniks went to great lengths to deny anything was in the works in April, and didn't have to respond till everything was made public in May ~ nicely coinciding with finals and the end of the school year. GC was put to death by the Regents in their June summer meeting. Nothing like finals and summer to mute student input, discussion, or dissent.

* Now the U is suggesting that students pony up another $100 a year in fees to build a football stadium on campus. Will this extra $100 give students access to concession, ticket or parking revenue to support programming or offset the fee increase? No, all those things flow to admin coffers. Will students get season tickets with their fee? No, in fact ticket prices will likely soar with a new stadium. Will students be guaranteed access to tickets? Reserve 30,000 seats in a 40,000 seat stadium... forget about it - although a section or two might be put aside for students.

Most likely students will be railroaded once again on fees, the stadium and whatever else comes up next year. But here's hoping that the admin looks out their Morril tower windows and hears a gentle noise on the breeze...

THE PAIN TRAINS COMING! THE PAIN TRAINS COMING -WOO WOO! WOO WOO!

Can I get an amen?

2005-07-02T07:20:00.000-07:00

Last weekend I watched a fantastic documentary on the 1994 Senate race in Virginia between Oliver North-R and Chuck Robb-D (inc). "A Perfect Candidate" was blessed to get just about the most interesting match up in the most interesting election in the last 50 years and get inside access to North's campaign.

On the one hand you had Ollie running as the bad boy turned good. He of course brought in all the baggage from those televised Congressional Hearings on the Iran Contra scandal and the infamous cover of Time where he's in his Marine greens and swearing on the bible with the military stiffness of a Marine salute. Because of all this Virginia's senior senator John Warner-R endorsed a third party moderate Republican who took 12% of the vote, Minority Leader Bob Dole refused to endorse or get the NRSC behind him, and John McCain took his shots at North too (that's no surprise now, but McCain was then considered an honorable GOPer). However, he ran as a Christian conservative who attributed his survival during that time to his faith in God. The documentary also shows us that Ollie is a fantastic campaigner, does a good job of connecting with people and has superior politician skills. He was THE perfect candidate for Virginia '94, except...

On the other hand you had incumbent Democrat Chuck Robb. Chuck was the golden boy of Virginia politics. Former Army officer, LBJ's son in law, his views and low key demeanor were perfect for the southern democrats who ran Virginia between the Civil war and 1994, he easily won a term as Governor in the 80's and had another easy election to the Senate in 1988. He had often been referred to as a serious Presidential contender. Then he got caught up, or pants down, with Playboy cover girl Tai Collins and half a dozen guys he used to party with in Virginia Beach were serving hard time for cocaine dealings. He denied the cocaine stuff and denied he ever saw it being done - which was pretty implausible, but had to eat the Collins allegations whole hog. Robb had gone from boyscout to cocaine sniffing, playboy philandering no-goodnic, and that dog don't hunt in Virginia.

In the end Robb won by 3 points, mainly because former Gov Doug Wilder dropped his independent campaign at Clinton's urging. What we saw in the documentary is that Clinton is the BEST when it comes to the stump. You also got a shot of current gov Mark Warner posing with Robb, Clinton and Wilder.

Religion played a prominent role for both candidates. You saw Ollie campaigning at church and giving his testimonial which was very powerful. His campaign was clearly fueled by the enthusiasm of the religious right. You even saw Robb at a black church listening to another powerful sermon encouraging everyone to be sure to vote. While you didn't get to see Robb's speech, it was assumed he had just addressed the congregation. This being 1994, one of the big stories was the emergence of the religious right as a political force. However, this campaign showed that religion was a tool for both parties.

Today, this is no longer true. The GOP is still clearly tied up with the faithful. However the Dems have taken a humanistic and in many cases anti-religious bent. Since 1994 the dems and liberals have painted the mixture of faith and politics as something to by abhorred and avoided at all costs. Pre-1994, religion was just another slight positive for them and part of the typical mix of a successful campaign.

Now many of my conservative friends who follow the Sean Hannity model of argument would just declare that liberals are hypocrites and leave it at that. I for one hate the debate that merely strives to call your opponent a hypocrite. Hypocrisy is an amoral sin. It does not discern motives and puts people who once favored coffee but now drink tea in with slave owners who later converted their practices.

Let's give liberals some credit. After 1994 they consciously chose to castigate religion in the belief that more people would be turned off rather than attracted by embracing morality as a political issue. There is certainly some validity to this strategy. Much or our country, pop culture, schools, and cities are quite secular and the mention of God or Jesus would seem awkward and out of place. An argument stating that religion had no place in politics may have been very well received by the vast middle. While this message is reasonable, it would not have generated volunteer armies or donations.

But this isn't the tact of the current liberal message - the message is one of hostility towards religion. Bible thumpers are little more than in-bred, unsophisticated, simpleton hicks. This message certainly fires up the secular elite and encourages their donations and volunteers - but it is also an extremely offensive message to the vast middle. Thus, it is an incredibly stupid message.

Republicans get the best of both worlds - lots of volunteers and donations AND sympathy from unattached voters who react negatively to hostile messages. And oh by the way, there is much more man power and dollars in the religious camp then there is in the secular camp.

The dems sort of got it after the 2004 election. Not the liberals mind you, but the elected leadership did. This partial enlightenment lead to the attempt to link religious values beyond life and morality issues and expand the definition to encompass the welfare state support for the poor. This works for your more liberal Catholics, Unitarians, and old line protestants. However, for the energized faithful, the priorities tend to go Faith first, personal morality second, alleviation of poverty third. Most faithful will say it is better to be moral and poor than immoral and rich.

This has lead to some awkward positioning. Hillary Clinton has pushed this message but she lacks credibility. Too bad for her, but the Clinton name is first and foremost associated with sexual promiscuity. Nancy Pelosi has also tried, but being a San Francisco liberal and all the baggage that implies really undercuts the message. Harry Reid, being a liberal catholic, is actually a pretty good messenger on this subject. Unfortunately for him he mostly speaks for a senate caucus that is best known for filibustering judges for being good Catholics.

This strategy sort of makes sense. It addresses the tertiary concerns of the faithful, but it is acceptable to the vast middle and shows a level of acceptance and understanding to the few remaining liberal faithful. It also exposes a GOP weakness amongst the faithful which is the lack of willingness to expand government to address poverty.

Sadly for the democrats, the secular elite are far more vocal and effective and are under cutting religion as a whole thus making the poverty focus sound hollow. While the strategy paints an emphatic hue on the liberals, it also spot lights their unpopular 'solutions' such as welfare, public housing, and soft on crime approach.

The dems are stuck. Republicans can easily embrace religion, and even if they don't they are not considered hostile. Whereas the dems have a confusing message that either seems hostile or disingenuous. Until the Dems make peace with religion or succeed in converting the country to vast secularism - advantage GOP.

Canada is Gay

2005-06-29T16:45:00.000-07:00

I have been getting much flak from Aaron about my lack of posts. He has introduced me to a web counter that I have implemented. The hope is that I will see such overwhelming demand that my previously established catholic guilt will kick in thus leading to more posts and more restless sleep. However, I suspect there are 6 people who read this... you know who you are. If that's the case, the guilt level just won't be that high and you can expect the same level of sporadic posts.

I was listening to Ron & Mark's radio show this morning and they were talking about the fact that Canada is about to legalize gay marriage through legistlation. They, and I, find it incredible that gay marriage will come to Canada in a legitimate form, whereas in the US the only way gay marriage will come about is through the courts. Even liberal states like Oregon rejected gay marriage 58-42 in referendum and there isn't a state house in the land who will touch it.

So what gives? How is it that Canada is that much different than the US? The popular explanation on the radio show is that the fundamentalist religious types never took off in Canada. For the most part, Canada remains a bastion of Episcopalian. This would certainly explain a lot. Most of your fundamentalist Christians... sheesh, let's just call them the religious right, tend to take the moral teachings of the bible seriously and thus look down on things like sodomy, gambling, drinking and dancing... if you're into the whole Footloose thing.

Episcopalians on the other hand... well, they lost their moral mandate long ago. Forget all the recent hub-bub over gay bishops and the schism that is forming, the empty albeit quaint churches, and their crisis of clergy (imagine that, a clergy crisis despite allowing them to marry). I would argue the Episcopalian Church NEVER had a moral mandate. Why is there a Church of England? Frankly, the King of England wanted a divorce. So we have a whole religious schism based on the all important theological argument that kings should be able to get divorced. Excuse me for not taking them all that seriously.

So in Canada, you have a culture whose values are based on a church that came about to coddle the King's promiscuity. But this is true in England, New England, and New York - and none of these places have a majority of elected leaders clamoring for legalized gay marriage.

So my only conclusion - Canada is gay. They are an effeminate nation that has a peace at any cost foreign policy, their greatest exports are touchy feely theatre types and putting the lumber to our mills. And as Homer adroitly pointed out to the Queen, Canada has never had a girlfriend. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Canada is an amusing microcosm of what America would be like if a bunch of French speakers ran the country. It's amusing because it mostly doesn't matter. We'll never let Canada truly flush themselves down the toilet of history. The US simply has too much invested and we won't let anyone cross their borders without our go ahead. Europe on the other hand, is the not so amusing, not so micro version of what socialism and libertine-ism can do to destroy a culture, economy, and demographic. But that is another post on another day, assuming my new counter registers enough guilt.

In Search of Self

2005-06-25T09:01:00.000-07:00

My blog readers may have noticed my absence from the blogosphere the last few days and they too may have been in search for my self. But I found it! I'm right here. Much time was spent haggling over houses, hanging at the lake, and playing a new computer game where my Turkish legions were destroyed by the French Army. I returned the defective game yesterday and got a new one.

But the most important finding in the search for self (besides forcing computerized Frenchies to come up with a word for "victory") was this quiz linked on Tony's blog - Theological Worldview

As it turns out, I'm Catholic:
--------------------
You are Roman Catholic. Church tradition and ecclesial authority are hugely important, and the most important part of worship for you is mass. As the Mother of God, Mary is important in your theology, and as the communion of saints includes the living and the dead, you can also ask the saints to intercede for you.

Roman Catholic - 93%

Evangelical Holiness/Wesleyan - 79%

Charismatic/Pentecostal - 75%

Neo orthodox - 75%

Classical Liberal - 64%

Fundamentalist - 57%

Reformed Evangelical - 50%

Modern Liberal - 39%

Emergent/Postmodern - 36%
-----------------------------
I'm proud of the fact that I scored in the solid 90's. I like the certainty that comes with that. Tony listed his results and his highest score was a 71 in the 'Classic Liberal' column. Such uncertainty... ;-)

Fat, Happy, and Sunburned

2005-06-21T18:43:00.000-07:00

Today was why God made Minnesota. A clear sky, temps in the mid-80's, thousands of lakes, and a friend from the dog park with a boat and bit of vacation time. We went out to Lake Elmo for a couple of hours between 11 and 1 ~ on the summer solstice. This was about the only sun I've gotten this year, and it might be the last. Pain is beginning to radiate from my upper arms and recently scarlet seared lower back. The dogs had a good time and even my pooch Maggie began to willingly play in the shallows after a somewhat traumatic swimming lesson. For a dog that gets spooked by her water dish, this was a big step forward.

My friend was wearing some of those sporty, plastic, mirrored sunglasses, and from time to time I saw this frighteningly white blob reflected off his shades. It took me quite awhile to realize I was witnessing my own, glorious, pale, highly reflective body. If I go out tomorrow, that blob will appear to be an infrared heat signature.

A game of book tag has been going around the internet. Aaron tagged me earlier today, so here goes:

Total number of books owned, ever:
I have no idea. Let's call it between 150-200. I've read all but 5 or 6 of them. I'm a sucker for book series so I tend to own a lot of one author. Probably 10 Tom Clancy's, 10 Robert Heinlein's, 6 PJ O'Rourke's, 7 John Fitzgeralds, and so on.

Last book I bought:
I'm not sure. I've been reading my roommates books recently and borrowed my current book from someone else and will borrow my next book (State of Fear - Micheal Crighton). I bought 10 copies of MN local and secret vigilante Anne Ursu's Spilling Clarence for Christmas gifts. Ms. Ursu also took the time out to sign and personalize each book, thus making her my favorite author EVER. Sorry Tom Clancy, you never single-handedly obliterated my christmas shopping list. It's hard to believe I've gone 6 months without buying another book... oh wait! I bought Michael Crighton's thriller on nanos, Prey, for a flight home from LA in February. I think it was $2.98 or $13.43 after california taxes. I'll go with Prey. But then again, as part of a gift basket at a golf outing in May, I received "Chicago Golf, the first 100 year". However, I will never read that book and its not like there's a receipt.

Last book I read:
I've been on a Tom Clancy kick as of late. I've reread Sum of all Fears, Debt of Honor, and Executive Orders. The Bear and the Dragon is the next and last of the Jack Ryan series, but I didn't like it the first time. I'm about 3 pages shy of finishing "Bringing Down the House" - a quick read about the MIT black jack team. I stayed up late last night reading that one and then had weird dreams where a casino pit boss helped me retrieve a check that fell out of my wallet and later I was attacked with a knife wielding black jack player I was trying to recruit. I find it interesting that the roles of good guys and bad guys switched places in my dream. Must have something to do with Hoplin being a republican...

Five books that mean a lot to me:
This was easy since they are all listed in my blog profile. To rehash:

When it comes to Clancy, I like pretty much all his work. He's easy to read and addresses my favorite topics of war, espionage, and politics. He gets a little weak on the politics when he makes Jack Ryan the President, but the other stuff is always top shelf. I chose Without Remorse, although I am torn between that and Clear and Present Danger as my favorites.

Paul Johnson has written a slew of books, with Modern Times being the first and most favored. It barely nudges out History of the American People. History of the Jews was a bit slow and I haven't yet gotten to Intellectuals and History of Christianity. However I'm guessing it is slightly more fact based than Dale Brown's crap.

Ayn Rand - Fountain Head is the better book in a literary sense, but Atlas shrugged is the better political tome. I read both later in my political development, and thus quickly recognized Atlas Shrugged was probably the foundation for many of the writers at Reason who I read through High School.

Ann Ursu is a gracious, wonderful person who signed my books for Xmas presents. She also keeps the world safe for Twins fans and oh yeah, she's a great author who sets up and then explores interesting psychological experiments. And since she's a local, your bound to find yourself cracking up when its revealed that her characters go to "Ventura Grade School". She writes children very well, as well as Judy Blume, and her adult characters tend to take on a severe personality that fully explores an emotional archetype.

Heinlein is the best sci-fi guy ever. I'm a big fan of Orson Scott Card (Ender's Game et al), but Heinlein is king. Time Enough for love is my favorite and probably his best effort at mixing his politics and his main character in a smooth plot, but Starship Trooper was my first and also had the clearest presentation of his libertarian military republic. Always a quick read.

I have no one else to tag who has a blog. Since I know Franklin is a reader, I shall invite him to be tagged in the comments section.

Did internet kill the High School reunion?

2005-06-20T10:58:00.000-07:00

This is an honest to god question. Many of my friends are coming up on their 10 year reunion sometime this summer or in the next couple of years. But I'm not hearing much talk. Mine will be later this year in September back in good ole Topeka. Earlier this year I was so-so about going, but thought I might. However, every conversation I've had with fellow alum have pushed me towards a French-like response to the EU - NON!

No one who I care to regularly have contact with post-High School is going. Some are adamant about it and others simply don't care. To be fair, I don't know who IS going beyond the list of organizers, none of which would be on my small talk rotation if I did go.

I consulted with Mr. Jim who is also having his reunion this year. Mr. Jim went to a small and specialized high school that graduated about 70 in his class. His reunion committee put the thing up on evite so he can tell who is and isn't going. About 13 people have confirmed, 25 said no, with about half of them making comments such as "Hell No!" or the equivalent, and 1 poor confused 'Maybe' person. So the total response rate is about half, and those that care to respond are 2-1 against going. This might come as a shocker to some, but Mr. Jim is in the 'no' category.

So are reunions passe? Has the internet, cheap flights, and cellular phone service allowed us to break away from the bonds of proximity induced relationships to choose our friends from a far greater and far less restrictive pool of potential? Or am I just part of a large group of introverted techno-nerds that would rather blog about life than be around real people?

I suppose the answers aren't mutually exclusive, but I'd love to get some feed back on this one.

Hunting the most dangerous game...

2005-06-20T10:26:00.000-07:00

I've been house hunting for the last 9 weeks to no avail. I guess I couldn't be described as a motivated buyer. So far I've put in 4 bids, all of which fell through. The first three are pretty easy to understand, I was under bidding the market hoping to take advantage of someone's frustration at a long market time. I was known far and wide to this land's realtors as the "low baller"... (mental note - do not refer to self as "low baller" ever again)

The fourth house went all the way to inspection. This was an older house in NE Minneapolis that had been rehabbed, sort of. The inspector just tore this place apart. The garage needed replacing, the shingles were tacked down to wet cardboard, the flashing lead to flooding, the windows let in moisture, paint was cracking and peeling from moisture on the inside, the basement stunk of recent and frequent flooding and the attic - not a lick of insulation.

This particular house was indicative of our times. When built in 1918, the house was large, had a good deal of charm, and the original woodwork that could be found was classy. However, in the 50's and 60's NE was turned into a ghetto, mainly by new deal and great society legistlation. People with money fled to the burbs and left these large beautiful homes behind in the city. The people left behind couldn't afford a WHOLE house, so contractors came in and "rehabbed" the old homes into duplexes and apartments.

This poor particular house must have been hit in the late 50's after a time of abandonment. Most of the nice old wood work was ripped out and replaced with poor quality generic 50's material that had little character or reason to salvage. At some point parts of the basement had been finished off, probably creating a third apartment. A part of the great front porch had been converted into a very small bedroom and a gas line was run upstairs for the kitchen.

Any family unit larger than 2 would have been most uncomfortable in any of the sub units of this house. Considering the underlying wear, this house most likely housed whole families in each unit, probably a total of 10-15 people at a time - yikes!

Over time traffic congestion, reduced crime, and a fix up culture emerged to spark urban renewal in the 90's. This particular house and many like it in NE were de-duped and returned to single family homes. Overall this has been good for the neighborhood and the old homes that retained their charm. But some homes, this one included, are beyond hope.

This is long ways to go for an analogy, but this applies to many ideas from the new deal/great society era. Now that the stage is set, expect more specific analysis in the days to come.

Comedy, thy name is Hoplin

2005-06-17T10:02:00.000-07:00

Well it didn't take long. I do a blog on credibility and how it is key for the old media and the bloggers, and within minutes of finishing that post I get a tip on my favorite example of the un-credible, which is really in-credible.

Check out the MN GOP site - second entry down is the news that Eric Hoplin won the vice chair. Within that tidbit is this quote, "Eric was the only Minnesotan to address the 2004 Republican National Convention." Uhhhh, really?!? According to the RNC convention agenda, on August 31, Sen. Norm Coleman R-MINNESOTA addressed the convention. I know Norm has a funny accent, but c'mon!

This quip, in and of itself is not that big a deal. But this isn't an isolated incident. This blog, and many, many, many others have dealt with Hoplin's scandals as the CRNC Chairman. Since he won anyway, most of us were hoping he turned over a new leaf and learned from his misconduct that it is counter-productive to the cause. It is terribly frustrating that his earliest introduction includes a silly, pointless, and easily refutable statement.

Hoplin, please... STOP! Just stop it. We get it, you think you're special. Now just do the job and ignore your first instinct to lie, embellish, spin or scheme. Just do the job and you'll do just fine.

Running Silent with the BlogFather

2005-06-17T08:03:00.000-07:00

I feel I have already violated the hallmark of a good blog - regular postings. I allowed the last couple of days to lapse without putting up any new posts or even a blogdodge of a link without any commentary. I have only one excuse, regular human contact occurred the last couple of days. Thankfully, much of that time was spent with fellow bloggers, including my blogfather, Captain Ed.

So I will employ the oldest publishing trick in the book, if you want people to read you, write about them!

Captain Ed spoke to CFACT on Wednesday night about how the blogoshpere is providing a counter balance to the 'mainstream' media and how this might shake out. Before the blogs and talk radio the old media simply leaned hard to the left and lapses in truth were allowed to pass so long as the story fit the template. Take the CBS forged Killian memos. The old media was quick to accept these forged documents as new evidence because they already KNEW Bush was lying about his Guard record. Whoops.

Talk radio was great for the fact that it offered an editorial rebuttal to the old media in an entertaining manner - and also turned out to be a great financial model. Blogging is different. For one, a viable financial model of blogging has not emerged. But it also allows for the quick accumulation of expert analysis, research and opinion in a blog swarm.

The blog swarm is a force of nature, and why not? A diverse set of skills, talents, experience and expertise is far more likely to occur along an ideological spectrum than a specific profession such as journalism. After all, they are all journalists.

The old media doesn't much care for this level of accountability. Life is so much easier when no one's watching. You can be sloppy, you can push the news/editorial envelope, you can shape the story, and you can largely get away with just making things up to 'fit' the story. When exposed, you lose credibility. Lose credibility, lose your audience.

Captain Ed mentioned how the newspapers have officially lost 2% of their readership and supposes that those numbers are quite higher based on the newspaper circulation scandal. He suggests that diminished credibility is the driving force, but warns his fellow bloggers that the loss of credibility is far more crippling to the blogs. A blogger who lies, fakes it, or conveniently gets it wrong will lose readership far faster. Basic Marketing backs up this claim. The blogs are still a fluid product with thousands to choose from and while brand names exist, they don't yet have the power, weight and household recognition of the old media. As much as I like Powerline as a blogging brand, it doesn't hold a candle to the brand "Star Tribune".

But that might change. Captain Ed cited numbers that 32 million people read blogs and that blogger readership increased 58% over last year. With the eyeballs, go the advertising dollars, and the establishment of household brands.

The lessons of Captain Ed? Be a good writer, be truthful, be interesting, and do your homework. In the end, it is the new ideas backed up by research and insight that will build the blog.