Final Pre-Draft Thoughts -UPDATED ALREADY!
*This year's draft is up in the air. It starts at the top where Chicago will likely take Rose, but that's not 100%. And then there is the drama that is Miami, the second pick, Beasley and Mayo. Here's hoping the Wolves exit the theater with Beasley, but who knows!
*So far three draft picks have changed hands. The #27 was sold by New Orleans to Portland. Charlotte traded a future "protected" pick (not sure how protected) to Denver for this year's #20, and Indiana acquired pick #17 from Toronto in the Ford/O'Neal trade. So essentially my mock is dead and believe there will be at least two more deals before the day is done.
*Deal #1 revolves around Portland. Fact is they have too many quality players on the roster (Martel, Outlaw), coming to the Roster (Rudy Fernandez and Oden), too many draft picks (13, 27, 33, 36, 55), are soft at SF, and weak at PG (Blake, Jack, Rodriquez). They are also flush with cash. I could see them using cash, the picks, and one of their many players to grab Memphis' pick at #5 - and grabbing Russell Westbrook to be the future PG. I could also see a deal with the Wolves that centers around Outlaw, and as many as 4 of their picks for the #3. Gallinari is a potential target, as is an established PG or SF.
*Deal #2 revolves around the Miami Heat. Can they trade the #2 pick and get the goods they want? Apparently, the #5, PG Kyle Lowry and SG Mike Miller aren't enough to move. Of course at 5, they could lose out on Mayo and Bayless. Miami is holding out for PG Mike Conley, who the Griz won't move. If I was Riley, and liked both Mayo and Bayless - I'd make the trade for Lowry et al. You get the point you need, and nice scorer in Miller, and one of your boys (Bayless) will drop to 5, but even better if you take a real big man like Love or Lopez and bench Blount. Here is my hunch, Riley is smitten with Mayo and will take him no matter what. Bayless is a smokescreen to make others think Miami has other options they like - but they don't.
If this is the case, MN is doing the right thing by sticking with Mayo at 3 and/or being very open to trades from the Knicks or Clips who badly want Mayo. This effectively kills any chance Seattle or Memphis have of jumping the Wolves for Beasley unless they give away a blue chip player. More and more I believe MN will stick it to Miami and force them to draft Mayo at 2 or they will make a nominal face saving trade - such as giving up Houston's second round pick in next year's draft (received in the Green/Snyder trade) to swap places.
*Deal #3 involves the Wolves. First off, they are doing the right thing by not trading before the first two picks - if Beasley is at 3 you take him unless you are bowled over with picks and players (Memphis gives up Conley and the 5 or Portland gives up Oden or Roy type of offer). But if Miami does take Beasley at 2, or trades to someone who does - the Wolves should trade down. The Knicks at 6 are at a nice spot, but have little other than future picks to offer - not a great partner. I like the Clippers offer of the #7, the top-10 protected Wolves pick owed the Clips from the Jaric trade, and a top-10 protected pick from the Clips next year. That would be a nice haul and the Wolves could choose from Westbrook, Love, Alexander, or Lopez. All of which are deals or make sense at 7, but not at 3.
*Another nice idea I heard was a three way with Golden State and Milwaukee. Milwaukee would land the 3, Golden State would get Jianlian, and MN walks away with the #8, the #14, and Brandon Wright (might also have to give up one or both second round picks). This deal is better than the Clips offer, but more difficult to pull off.
*The last big idea out there is the Wolves going for broke and trading Al Jefferson to the Bulls for the #1 pick. I love this idea! AlJeff is good at two things, scoring and rebounding. And because he's good at two things instead of just one, he's the best player on the Wolves, but he's not the kind of guy you can build around. The Wolves desperately need guys that are good at two or three things - such as defense, passing, scoring and rebounding. Beasley and Rose are those kind of players, and you could get both for Al Jeff and giving Miami their protected 1st rounder from the Blount trade back. But this won't happen, too bad.
*I predict an exciting night for the Wolves. They will either walk away with Beasley or a boatload of talent from trading the #3 pick. Either way, this team will be all the more exciting to follow tomorrow morning.
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SHEESH! I didn't have this thing out 15 minutes before two of my scenarios blew up!
*First, the Clippers and Sonics are swapping #4 and #7 with the Sonics getting a protected pick for next year. But ESPN reports that the deal is off if the Wolves pick Mayo at #3 - which probably won't happen! So Seattle took the initiative away from the Wolves by locking up a contingent deal with the Clips. This is a black mark against McHale.
*The next big trade is New Jersey Sending Richard Jefferson to the Bucks for Yi and Simmons. No picks exchanged, but it blows away my three way with Golden State possibility. I love the Deal for the Bucks. Simmons was overrated and expensive while Yi won't amount to anything. The Bucks keep their 8th pick, probably too late to get Westbrook to be the PG, but they now have the luxory of taking the best player available - my guess is Bayless. Their starting 5 is set and impressive -
PG Mo Williams - 17.2 PPG 6.3 Assts
SG Michael Redd - 22.7 PPG 4.3 RBD, 3.4 Assts
SF Richard Jefferson - 22.6 PPG, 4.2 RBD, 3.1 Assts
PF Charlie Villenuva - 11.7 PPG, 6.1 RBD
C Andrew Bogut - 14.3 PPG, 9.8 RBD
They could take Bayless, have him replace Redd, and try trading Redd... easier said than done with his contract.
I don't know if this team can mesh as it will require Mo Williams to pass more and shoot less - and I have no idea about the defensive toughness of this group - but Skiles will certainly instill some. But I like this team much better with Jefferson than with Yi. Other than dumping about $10million, I don't get this deal for NJ - unless it is a "get young pieces now so when we move to Brooklyn and sign LeBron he'll have decent support in Devin Harris and Yi". This deal might make sense in NJ 3 years from now. But in the mean time NJ goes from playoff contender to officially rebuilding and MKE becomes a contender immediately.
*So far three draft picks have changed hands. The #27 was sold by New Orleans to Portland. Charlotte traded a future "protected" pick (not sure how protected) to Denver for this year's #20, and Indiana acquired pick #17 from Toronto in the Ford/O'Neal trade. So essentially my mock is dead and believe there will be at least two more deals before the day is done.
*Deal #1 revolves around Portland. Fact is they have too many quality players on the roster (Martel, Outlaw), coming to the Roster (Rudy Fernandez and Oden), too many draft picks (13, 27, 33, 36, 55), are soft at SF, and weak at PG (Blake, Jack, Rodriquez). They are also flush with cash. I could see them using cash, the picks, and one of their many players to grab Memphis' pick at #5 - and grabbing Russell Westbrook to be the future PG. I could also see a deal with the Wolves that centers around Outlaw, and as many as 4 of their picks for the #3. Gallinari is a potential target, as is an established PG or SF.
*Deal #2 revolves around the Miami Heat. Can they trade the #2 pick and get the goods they want? Apparently, the #5, PG Kyle Lowry and SG Mike Miller aren't enough to move. Of course at 5, they could lose out on Mayo and Bayless. Miami is holding out for PG Mike Conley, who the Griz won't move. If I was Riley, and liked both Mayo and Bayless - I'd make the trade for Lowry et al. You get the point you need, and nice scorer in Miller, and one of your boys (Bayless) will drop to 5, but even better if you take a real big man like Love or Lopez and bench Blount. Here is my hunch, Riley is smitten with Mayo and will take him no matter what. Bayless is a smokescreen to make others think Miami has other options they like - but they don't.
If this is the case, MN is doing the right thing by sticking with Mayo at 3 and/or being very open to trades from the Knicks or Clips who badly want Mayo. This effectively kills any chance Seattle or Memphis have of jumping the Wolves for Beasley unless they give away a blue chip player. More and more I believe MN will stick it to Miami and force them to draft Mayo at 2 or they will make a nominal face saving trade - such as giving up Houston's second round pick in next year's draft (received in the Green/Snyder trade) to swap places.
*Deal #3 involves the Wolves. First off, they are doing the right thing by not trading before the first two picks - if Beasley is at 3 you take him unless you are bowled over with picks and players (Memphis gives up Conley and the 5 or Portland gives up Oden or Roy type of offer). But if Miami does take Beasley at 2, or trades to someone who does - the Wolves should trade down. The Knicks at 6 are at a nice spot, but have little other than future picks to offer - not a great partner. I like the Clippers offer of the #7, the top-10 protected Wolves pick owed the Clips from the Jaric trade, and a top-10 protected pick from the Clips next year. That would be a nice haul and the Wolves could choose from Westbrook, Love, Alexander, or Lopez. All of which are deals or make sense at 7, but not at 3.
*Another nice idea I heard was a three way with Golden State and Milwaukee. Milwaukee would land the 3, Golden State would get Jianlian, and MN walks away with the #8, the #14, and Brandon Wright (might also have to give up one or both second round picks). This deal is better than the Clips offer, but more difficult to pull off.
*The last big idea out there is the Wolves going for broke and trading Al Jefferson to the Bulls for the #1 pick. I love this idea! AlJeff is good at two things, scoring and rebounding. And because he's good at two things instead of just one, he's the best player on the Wolves, but he's not the kind of guy you can build around. The Wolves desperately need guys that are good at two or three things - such as defense, passing, scoring and rebounding. Beasley and Rose are those kind of players, and you could get both for Al Jeff and giving Miami their protected 1st rounder from the Blount trade back. But this won't happen, too bad.
*I predict an exciting night for the Wolves. They will either walk away with Beasley or a boatload of talent from trading the #3 pick. Either way, this team will be all the more exciting to follow tomorrow morning.
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SHEESH! I didn't have this thing out 15 minutes before two of my scenarios blew up!
*First, the Clippers and Sonics are swapping #4 and #7 with the Sonics getting a protected pick for next year. But ESPN reports that the deal is off if the Wolves pick Mayo at #3 - which probably won't happen! So Seattle took the initiative away from the Wolves by locking up a contingent deal with the Clips. This is a black mark against McHale.
*The next big trade is New Jersey Sending Richard Jefferson to the Bucks for Yi and Simmons. No picks exchanged, but it blows away my three way with Golden State possibility. I love the Deal for the Bucks. Simmons was overrated and expensive while Yi won't amount to anything. The Bucks keep their 8th pick, probably too late to get Westbrook to be the PG, but they now have the luxory of taking the best player available - my guess is Bayless. Their starting 5 is set and impressive -
PG Mo Williams - 17.2 PPG 6.3 Assts
SG Michael Redd - 22.7 PPG 4.3 RBD, 3.4 Assts
SF Richard Jefferson - 22.6 PPG, 4.2 RBD, 3.1 Assts
PF Charlie Villenuva - 11.7 PPG, 6.1 RBD
C Andrew Bogut - 14.3 PPG, 9.8 RBD
They could take Bayless, have him replace Redd, and try trading Redd... easier said than done with his contract.
I don't know if this team can mesh as it will require Mo Williams to pass more and shoot less - and I have no idea about the defensive toughness of this group - but Skiles will certainly instill some. But I like this team much better with Jefferson than with Yi. Other than dumping about $10million, I don't get this deal for NJ - unless it is a "get young pieces now so when we move to Brooklyn and sign LeBron he'll have decent support in Devin Harris and Yi". This deal might make sense in NJ 3 years from now. But in the mean time NJ goes from playoff contender to officially rebuilding and MKE becomes a contender immediately.
posted by Bill Gilles | 11:51 AM
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