Molting Dragon
Admiral Yamata had a difficult task in 1941. Japan was an ascendant country and had taken its place as the only regional power of note. Unlike its primary rivals, Japan had the advantage of proximity to its conquests in China and in the Pacific. Britain and Russia were tied down in a European war and their ability to project power in the Far East was waning quickly. A great empire from Manchuria to Singapore on the mainland, and Sakhalin to New Zealand in the Pacific was ripe for the picking. A huge, Pacific Rim based empire was ready to fall into their laps... except for one little thing. The regional power on the other side of the Pacific.
In order to absorb this great Pacific Empire the Japanese had to neutralize America's ability to respond. Thus Yamata was tasked with the destruction of the United States Navy and the ensuing attack on Pearl Harbor. Yamata carried out his orders and executed brilliantly, but he knew something his leaders did not. Yamata had been to America, studied naval tactics in America, and knew America was no regional power - America was a Super Power waiting to happen. Yamata was far more eloquent (and probably used haiku) using the phrase "Sleeping Dragon" and his concern about waking it.
Well, the American Dragon is again wide awake, having been rudely disturbed from a long deserved slumber on 9/11. The Dragon is answering - in the affirmative- the question asked in the Middle East - "Does the dragon have sharp talons?"
But before 9/11, when the Dragon was just starting to doze off after a long tussle with the Russian Bear, a wary eye remained cast toward the dead dragon - China.
But China wasn't dead. Yes, it was old and tired. Yes it had been the prey of many lesser nations for the past few centuries, and yes the takeover by Moaists seemed to be the end of all hope, culture, and commerce. But in the last 30 years, China has begun to change and shed their old skin. Communism as an economic policy is dead. Commerce, both legitimate and black market flourishes. Economic growth and wealth have been coming in droves. Weapons technology and advancement have been achieved. Hong Kong has returned from imperialist rule and China is once again the premiere regional power. The Chinese Dragon is molting, and has nearly escaped from the old, heavy, and damaged skin to emerge as powerful, sleek, and dangerous.
The question is, what will this new China do? Will they act on their national sore spot that is Taiwan? Will they tussle with Vietnam over the Spratly Islands and the oil there? Will they challenge the US Navy for Supremecy in the Western Pacific? Will they take advantage of America's current conflict with Terrorism?
I honestly don't know. I'm somewhat surprised they didn't make a move on Taiwan when we were tied down in Iraq. But then maybe I'm looking in the wrong direction. For the last 10 years many Chinese have migrated north over the Russian border into Siberia. Russia has it's own illegal immigration problem much like the US, except it would be more like the Mexicans ending up in our empty states... like Montana and North Dakota. There is also a 'sex bomb' on the horizon. Chinese one-child policy has led to a population that is skewed more male since many female babies are abandoned or aborted. Interestingly enough, Russia's demographics have skewed female, with only 85 men per 100 women.
It's only a matter of time before all these sexually frustrated Chinese join the army and find a treasure chest of poon to their immediate north. We could have a major war with the sole purpose of getting some.
The fact that 1 billion Chinese live in a totalitarian state is terrible. We are fortunate that these people don't view suicide bombings as an honorable and useful piece of state craft. And largely because of that, their liberation is a lower priority. But we can't forget this is the case, and we need to continue with a wary eye even while we are fighting a more dangerous foe.
We have seen the end of communism, hopefully a democratic middle east will bring about the end of extremist islamo-fascism. Sadly, the future holds at least one more conflict with totalitarianism. Let's hope that our soft power of culture, commerce, and the internet will be enough bring about democracy and liberation.
In order to absorb this great Pacific Empire the Japanese had to neutralize America's ability to respond. Thus Yamata was tasked with the destruction of the United States Navy and the ensuing attack on Pearl Harbor. Yamata carried out his orders and executed brilliantly, but he knew something his leaders did not. Yamata had been to America, studied naval tactics in America, and knew America was no regional power - America was a Super Power waiting to happen. Yamata was far more eloquent (and probably used haiku) using the phrase "Sleeping Dragon" and his concern about waking it.
Well, the American Dragon is again wide awake, having been rudely disturbed from a long deserved slumber on 9/11. The Dragon is answering - in the affirmative- the question asked in the Middle East - "Does the dragon have sharp talons?"
But before 9/11, when the Dragon was just starting to doze off after a long tussle with the Russian Bear, a wary eye remained cast toward the dead dragon - China.
But China wasn't dead. Yes, it was old and tired. Yes it had been the prey of many lesser nations for the past few centuries, and yes the takeover by Moaists seemed to be the end of all hope, culture, and commerce. But in the last 30 years, China has begun to change and shed their old skin. Communism as an economic policy is dead. Commerce, both legitimate and black market flourishes. Economic growth and wealth have been coming in droves. Weapons technology and advancement have been achieved. Hong Kong has returned from imperialist rule and China is once again the premiere regional power. The Chinese Dragon is molting, and has nearly escaped from the old, heavy, and damaged skin to emerge as powerful, sleek, and dangerous.
The question is, what will this new China do? Will they act on their national sore spot that is Taiwan? Will they tussle with Vietnam over the Spratly Islands and the oil there? Will they challenge the US Navy for Supremecy in the Western Pacific? Will they take advantage of America's current conflict with Terrorism?
I honestly don't know. I'm somewhat surprised they didn't make a move on Taiwan when we were tied down in Iraq. But then maybe I'm looking in the wrong direction. For the last 10 years many Chinese have migrated north over the Russian border into Siberia. Russia has it's own illegal immigration problem much like the US, except it would be more like the Mexicans ending up in our empty states... like Montana and North Dakota. There is also a 'sex bomb' on the horizon. Chinese one-child policy has led to a population that is skewed more male since many female babies are abandoned or aborted. Interestingly enough, Russia's demographics have skewed female, with only 85 men per 100 women.
It's only a matter of time before all these sexually frustrated Chinese join the army and find a treasure chest of poon to their immediate north. We could have a major war with the sole purpose of getting some.
The fact that 1 billion Chinese live in a totalitarian state is terrible. We are fortunate that these people don't view suicide bombings as an honorable and useful piece of state craft. And largely because of that, their liberation is a lower priority. But we can't forget this is the case, and we need to continue with a wary eye even while we are fighting a more dangerous foe.
We have seen the end of communism, hopefully a democratic middle east will bring about the end of extremist islamo-fascism. Sadly, the future holds at least one more conflict with totalitarianism. Let's hope that our soft power of culture, commerce, and the internet will be enough bring about democracy and liberation.
posted by Bill Gilles | 10:25 AM
1 Comments:
Bill,
Come on, where are you? You have to post!
ABS
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