NBA Dreams
The NBA held their lottery last night and the fates of three teams were sealed. The Trail Blazers have been guaranteed a shot at every championship from 2009-2019. The Timberwolves have been shut out from that discussion till at least 2011 (post Garnet), and the Bulls know that the time to make a big move is now.
The Trail Blazers - Last night the West got stronger with Seattle and Portland going 1 and 2 and thus ensuring two new superstars in the talent packed Western Conference. I feel bad for Seattle since Durant on that team will only be good enough to put them in the Kevin Garnet mid-range team talent that will ensure no lottery picks and 1st round playoff exits - and a move to Oklahoma... ouch.
Portland on the other hand now has the nucleus to compete starting in 2009. Their 2006 draft of LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Brandon Roy (6) and Sergio Rodriguez(27) has already been graded a "home run" and now add Oden in this year's draft - goodnight. Next year will be a building block year as Oden gets used to the NBA game and the young talent learns to work together. Just look at what they will roll with next year:
C - 7'1" Greg Oden: 19-year old superstar of the future.
PF - 6'9" 25-yr old Zach Randolph had a break out year going 23.6 pts and 10 rebounds (vs career averages of 16 and 8). He also has 4 years at $12M per left on his contract. He is backed up by Aldridge who had a nice rookie season so Randolph could become trade bait - or just provide a solid scoring option.
SF - 6'7" 25-yr old Darius Miles should come back from micro fracture surgery after missing all of this year. The Blazers are on the hook for another 3 years at $7.75M - if he can start or backup then Udoka and Outlaw can be let go to save money. However this position is a long term question mark unless Miles comes back healthy, productive, and meshes with this team that will seem brand new to him.
I think they have some flexibility to move Roy here if Martel blows up and the other good news is that the NBA is stacked with SF talent. It is quite possible that after next season when LaFrentz has one year and $11.5M left, he can be moved for a quality SF from a team looking to make changes (ie Allen Iverson type of trade). Another if - Aldridge becomes a solid PF and Randolph can be moved for a front line SF. While this is a question mark now I believe there is a 90% probability that by the trade deadline of the 2008 season this will be addressed (I didn't even consider the 2008 draft where I'm guessing they'll pick 10-14).
SG - 6'6" 22-year old Brandon Roy had a ROY season with a 16.8 pt avg and 4 assists and rebounds a game. Could also be a SF.
PG - 6'3" 23-year old Jarret Jack has impressed his sophomore year and could be the in house answer at PG for years to come. He averages 12 pts and 5 assists a game and has a reputation as a fierce backcourt defender and excellent free throw shooter. Critics say he needs to work on his 3-pt range, I say with the talent around him he needs to get his Assists average into double digits and continue using his stout frame to slash the lane and draw free throws. The last thing the Blazers need here is a shoot first guard - they need a pass, slash, or pass (then maybe shoot) point guard.
Bench
C - 7'1" 27-year old Gopher Joel Pryzbilla has 4 years left at $5M a year (while averaging 2 pts and 4 rbds a game) and WAS the starting C last year. He now becomes a solid backup or possibly trade bait since he is backed up by last year's #2 pick 6'10" 21 yr old LaMarcus Aldridge (9 pts and 5 rbds a game). Jamaal Magloire and his $8.5M will be let go and after paying Oden $4.5 will get the Cap number down from $21.5M to $17.5M over.
PF - Aldridge can back up here as does Raef Lafrentz. While I have a soft spot for the former Jayhawk, he's pretty much washed up and untradeable till after next season with 2 years at $11.5M remaining. Portland can't wait to take him off the books.
SF - 29 yr old Ime Udoka was the starter last year, I'm not a believer he's that good and his cheap $700k salary is up. If they can sign him cheap, might be worth keeping him around as a backup.
22-yr old Travis Outlaw's rookie contract expires this year ($1.8M) and he has shown steady improvement, but nothing spectacular. Blazers could play the young Outlaw against the older Udoka against each other for back up money.
Perennial backup Fred Jones has one year left at $3.1M and won't be a factor.
SG - 20-yr Old 6'7" Martell Webster showed some improvement. He is under contract for next year and will have the chance to backup and show he is a long term solution next to Roy as the 2 or 3.
PG - Dan Dickau has never established himself and has one year left at $2.7M. I see him being a practice squad guy or trade bait while last year's late #1 Sergio Rodriquez gets the bulk of back up minutes. Sergio seems to have the pass first mentality that might fit better than Jack's skill set and thus might be the long term starter at Point.
If I'm in charge of the Blazers, I don't worry about my record next year. I worry about player development and chemistry. I expect to miss the playoffs and get a crappy draft pick in 2008 (13 or 14), but I don't care. I don't tank games to improve my pick because my focus is getting these guys feel like winners and work hard every game. Oden, Randolph, and Roy get every minute they can give and I make sure Aldridge gets every spare minute to show his stuff and develop. Heck, if Miles doesn't work out I may go with a big team and start him with Oden and Randolph (yikes!). I also do everything I can to determine the best mix at 3 with Miles and Martell as the front runners. And finally I stage a fierce competition at point between Jack and Rodriguez.
For 2008 I fix the 3 spot by trading Raef and my 1st pick if Miles or Martell don't work out. I expect to have my starting 5 set and experienced and I expect to make the playoffs. In 2009 and beyond, I expect to make a real run at the Conference championship on a regular basis.
Of course, this all assumes that Oden is for real and not Kwame Brown Jr.
The Trail Blazers - Last night the West got stronger with Seattle and Portland going 1 and 2 and thus ensuring two new superstars in the talent packed Western Conference. I feel bad for Seattle since Durant on that team will only be good enough to put them in the Kevin Garnet mid-range team talent that will ensure no lottery picks and 1st round playoff exits - and a move to Oklahoma... ouch.
Portland on the other hand now has the nucleus to compete starting in 2009. Their 2006 draft of LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Brandon Roy (6) and Sergio Rodriguez(27) has already been graded a "home run" and now add Oden in this year's draft - goodnight. Next year will be a building block year as Oden gets used to the NBA game and the young talent learns to work together. Just look at what they will roll with next year:
C - 7'1" Greg Oden: 19-year old superstar of the future.
PF - 6'9" 25-yr old Zach Randolph had a break out year going 23.6 pts and 10 rebounds (vs career averages of 16 and 8). He also has 4 years at $12M per left on his contract. He is backed up by Aldridge who had a nice rookie season so Randolph could become trade bait - or just provide a solid scoring option.
SF - 6'7" 25-yr old Darius Miles should come back from micro fracture surgery after missing all of this year. The Blazers are on the hook for another 3 years at $7.75M - if he can start or backup then Udoka and Outlaw can be let go to save money. However this position is a long term question mark unless Miles comes back healthy, productive, and meshes with this team that will seem brand new to him.
I think they have some flexibility to move Roy here if Martel blows up and the other good news is that the NBA is stacked with SF talent. It is quite possible that after next season when LaFrentz has one year and $11.5M left, he can be moved for a quality SF from a team looking to make changes (ie Allen Iverson type of trade). Another if - Aldridge becomes a solid PF and Randolph can be moved for a front line SF. While this is a question mark now I believe there is a 90% probability that by the trade deadline of the 2008 season this will be addressed (I didn't even consider the 2008 draft where I'm guessing they'll pick 10-14).
SG - 6'6" 22-year old Brandon Roy had a ROY season with a 16.8 pt avg and 4 assists and rebounds a game. Could also be a SF.
PG - 6'3" 23-year old Jarret Jack has impressed his sophomore year and could be the in house answer at PG for years to come. He averages 12 pts and 5 assists a game and has a reputation as a fierce backcourt defender and excellent free throw shooter. Critics say he needs to work on his 3-pt range, I say with the talent around him he needs to get his Assists average into double digits and continue using his stout frame to slash the lane and draw free throws. The last thing the Blazers need here is a shoot first guard - they need a pass, slash, or pass (then maybe shoot) point guard.
Bench
C - 7'1" 27-year old Gopher Joel Pryzbilla has 4 years left at $5M a year (while averaging 2 pts and 4 rbds a game) and WAS the starting C last year. He now becomes a solid backup or possibly trade bait since he is backed up by last year's #2 pick 6'10" 21 yr old LaMarcus Aldridge (9 pts and 5 rbds a game). Jamaal Magloire and his $8.5M will be let go and after paying Oden $4.5 will get the Cap number down from $21.5M to $17.5M over.
PF - Aldridge can back up here as does Raef Lafrentz. While I have a soft spot for the former Jayhawk, he's pretty much washed up and untradeable till after next season with 2 years at $11.5M remaining. Portland can't wait to take him off the books.
SF - 29 yr old Ime Udoka was the starter last year, I'm not a believer he's that good and his cheap $700k salary is up. If they can sign him cheap, might be worth keeping him around as a backup.
22-yr old Travis Outlaw's rookie contract expires this year ($1.8M) and he has shown steady improvement, but nothing spectacular. Blazers could play the young Outlaw against the older Udoka against each other for back up money.
Perennial backup Fred Jones has one year left at $3.1M and won't be a factor.
SG - 20-yr Old 6'7" Martell Webster showed some improvement. He is under contract for next year and will have the chance to backup and show he is a long term solution next to Roy as the 2 or 3.
PG - Dan Dickau has never established himself and has one year left at $2.7M. I see him being a practice squad guy or trade bait while last year's late #1 Sergio Rodriquez gets the bulk of back up minutes. Sergio seems to have the pass first mentality that might fit better than Jack's skill set and thus might be the long term starter at Point.
If I'm in charge of the Blazers, I don't worry about my record next year. I worry about player development and chemistry. I expect to miss the playoffs and get a crappy draft pick in 2008 (13 or 14), but I don't care. I don't tank games to improve my pick because my focus is getting these guys feel like winners and work hard every game. Oden, Randolph, and Roy get every minute they can give and I make sure Aldridge gets every spare minute to show his stuff and develop. Heck, if Miles doesn't work out I may go with a big team and start him with Oden and Randolph (yikes!). I also do everything I can to determine the best mix at 3 with Miles and Martell as the front runners. And finally I stage a fierce competition at point between Jack and Rodriguez.
For 2008 I fix the 3 spot by trading Raef and my 1st pick if Miles or Martell don't work out. I expect to have my starting 5 set and experienced and I expect to make the playoffs. In 2009 and beyond, I expect to make a real run at the Conference championship on a regular basis.
Of course, this all assumes that Oden is for real and not Kwame Brown Jr.
posted by Bill Gilles | 5:51 AM
1 Comments:
What is this "NBA" thing? Never heard of it. Must not be that popular.
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