The Senate Supreme

I don't know what it is, but I'm suffering from a political bug these days. I'm also suffering from a stomach bug, but this isn't that kind of blog. The 2006 Senate elections could be very important. The Dems have a generic advantage right now with the right/wrong track numbers now polling around 57% wrong track and Bush in the mid-40's approval. However, for the GOP they are taking on a lot of freshman democrats who won in a very good year for them back in 2000.

The GOP managed to lose a net 5 seats in 2000. It started a few months before the election when Paul Coverdell died in office and Zell Miller was appointed to replace him. On election day, the GOP picked up seats in Nevada and Virginia with John Ensign and George Allen. The Dems managed to take 5 GOP seats in MN (Dayton), Michigan (Stabenow), Missouri (Carnahan), Florida (Nelson) and Delaware (Carper). A month later the Washington state recount ended with a Dem pickup (Cantwell).

The GOP also managed to narrowly lose a bunch of seats. In Nebraska, Ben Nelson held a dem seat by narrowly beating Stenberg 51-49. In New Jersey Corzine, despite his millions only won 51-48. Most aggravating was Hillary's win in NY, which wasn't close, but might have been if Rudy stayed in the race.

Since then the GOP has rebuilt to 55 seats in 2002 and 2004 by getting the Missouri seat back and a bunch of southern seats.

Hawaii - Daniel Akaka (D)
Akaka said he's running again, and will win if he does. The danger for dems is that Akaka is old. There is a serious chance he won't make it through the next term and the present Hawaii gov is GOP. This could eventually be a GOP pickup, but not this cycle.
DEM HOLD

California - Diane Feinstein (D)
Feinstein will easily win re-election. Polling pitting her against Arnold and Condoleeza Rice have her winning easy. The CA GOP bench is thin and no one else commands the name recognition of those two. Fact is, this seat, or any other Diane might want in Cali, is hers for the taking - and she wants her senate seat.
DEM HOLD

Washington - Maria Cantwell (D)
Maria is a weak candidate. The bad news for her is that her approval rating is 47% - only 4 points better than Bush and 10 points less than fellow senator Patty Murray. The good news for Maria is that Washington is a blue state and the head to head with GOPer Costco exec Mike McGavick is 46-38.

McGavick is very rich, and only being 8 points back generates some hope. But the GOP would much rather have had Dino Rossi run, but Rossi is intent on a rematch in 2008 for Gov with Christine Gregoire who he currently beats 55-39 in the polls. Personally, I think Rossi is a fool. It is a lot to expect the voters of Washington to hold a grudge for 4 years. He should cash in his goodwill now while he still has it.

While there is some hope that McGavick will take this seat, I find it highly improbable.
DEM HOLD, but worth tracking

Nevada - John Ensign (R)
Dems made a lot of noise about this being a race. They were encouraged by Bush's narrow win and Ensign's staunch conservatism which is somewhat out of line with the Vegas mindset. However, every candidate worth a damn has taken a pass on this race. I believe Ensign would have beat a good dem candidate such as Vegas Mayor Oscar Goode, or Vegas U.S. Rep Shelly
Berkely. Ensign is a solid campaigner who almost beat Harry Reid in 1998 (losing by 400 votes) and then cruised to an open seat election in 2000. This is an easy GOP hold.
GOP HOLD

Montana - Conrad Burns (R)
This is another one where Dems think they have a chance, largely due to Brian Schweitzer winning the gov seat 2 years ago. You have to hand it to Schweitzer, he had the money and the tenacity to keep trying. He took on Burns 6 years ago and lost, ran for the house and lost 2 years after that, then finally won the gov 2 years later. Persistent, and rich. The dems don't have any more of those. There is a smorgasbord in the dem primary including former speakers, current senate president, current state auditor, former secretary of state, and other state office holders. Burns dispatches whichever one of these B-teamers comes out of the primary.
GOP HOLD

Wyoming - Craig Thomas (R)
It's Wyoming. Thomas wins 3rd term easy.
GOP HOLD

Utah - Orrin Hatch (R)
The biggest danger Hatch faces is from a GOP state Rep who may challenge him in the Primary. It seems highly unlikely such a challenge would be successful. Even if it is, it is even more unlikely the Dems pick up the seat.
GOP HOLD

Arizona - Jon Kyl (R)
Kyl will probably face Jim Pederson, the DEM chair in Arizona and rich guy. Arizona is still a pretty red state and I have trouble thinking that a party hack has any chance of unseating a fairly popular incumbent. I'm somewhat worried about Arizona overall, especially if the GOP fails at Hispanic outreach, but I don't think this is the year Arizona goes purple.
GOP HOLD

New Mexico - Jeff Bingaman (D)
The GOP has rolled out the B team for a possible challenge. The problem is, New Mexico is a light shade of blue and Bingaman will be seeking his 5th term. Unless Heather Wilson gives up her house seat (which the GOP would lose if she did) this won't be a race. And even then I'd give Bingaman a large edge.
DEM HOLD

North Dakota - Kent Conrad (D)
Now we're talking! Conrad is a deep blue senator in a blood red state. He has been fortunate for many years since the GOP has had an awfully weak bench. But no longer, now they have extremely popular governor John Hoeven who won re-election with 70% in 2004. Hoeven is being wooed by Rove and the White House, but has not yet entered the race. My feeling is that he will enter the race. If he does, he wins. If not and the GOP has to go to the bench, Conrad likely holds but it would be wise to keep tabs on this race.
GOP PICKUP

Nebraska - Ben Nelson (D)
There are a slew of GOPers who want a piece of Nelson in this red state. They include a rich Ameritrade exec, Stenberg who lost last time, the current AG, the current party chair, and former gov Johanns and current gov Heineman are still being recruited. Nelson has done a pretty good job of maintaining a moderate record and will probably be tougher to beat than all these GOPers think. However, I think he is ripe for the picking and so long as the primary voters don't saddle us with a has been, Nelson goes down.
GOP PICKUP

Texas - Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R)
Kay finally gave up the flirtation of challenging Rick Perry for Gov and will seek re-election. She wins easily.
GOP HOLD

Minnesota - Mark Dayton (D) Retiring
This race is US Rep Mark Kenedy (R) vs.
Patty Wetterling (D) - Patty lost a house seat to Kennedy by 8 points last time in a conservative district. She would no doubt do better in a statewide race. The house race did her good, since early on she was described as an inept amateur for most of the race, but had grown into the candidate's role by the end of the campaign. She is the dems best chance to hold this seat, but even then it's 50-50.

Amy Klobuchar (D) - The Hennepin County attorney is the darling of the party and leads in money and endorsements. She is a solid politician, but would not garner the sympathy of Wetterling or the name ID. She is a viable candidate and give the dems a serious shot at holding this seat, but I'd give Kennedy the nod over her.

Kelly Doran (D) - Rich guy who wants to raise taxes. Won't win primary, endorsement, or general.

Mike Ciresi (D) - Not yet in the race and may stay out. Klobuchar has done a good job of rallying the party around her, Wetterling's name ID is much higher, and Doran is just as rich. Really has no shot.

My gut tells me Kennedy wins, but it will be razor close. It will help that it's not a presidential year, which tends to bring out the lefties in MN.
GOP PICKUP

Missouri - Jim Talent (R)
Talent dispatched with widower Jean Carnahan 4 years ago and will likely trounce whoever the dems put up. The Dems are begging Gov loser Claire McKaskill to run. Claire did beat a dem gov in the primary two years ago, but was then crunched in the general. Same result here.
GOP HOLD

Michigan - Debbie Stabenow (D)
When I think of the shrill, liberal woman, I think of Stabenow. Sadly, Michigan is a blue state and all the blue chippers on the GOP side are waiting for Carl Levin to retire. There is a small chance that black minister Keith Butler makes this interesting, but not likely. Stabenow wins.
DEM HOLD

Indiana - Dick Lugar (R)
He has no opponent in this red state. I like his chances.
GOP HOLD

Tennessee - Bill Frist (R) Retiring
US Rep from Memphis Harold Ford Jr. (D) is the man to beat. He's already on the airwaves, but his family keeps showing up on the police blotter, and Harold Ford Sr. was considered as corrupt as they come. I honestly don't think Jr. is corrupt, but everyone in his family a generation older is. This won't help. The GOP has a smorgasbord in the primary. My hope is that gov loser Van Hillearly doesn't get it, and that US Rep Marsha Blackburn is the pick. She is very conservative, but it helps that she's attractive and female - softens the edge. Ideally, Frist gives up his term limit pledge and quixotic presidential hopes and runs for re-election. Overall, this is trouble for the GOP. TN is a red state, but Ford is a good candidate.
DEM PICKUP

Mississippi - Trent Lott (R)
No identified opponent in a red state. Despite his demotion from leader, he wins easily.
GOP HOLD

Ohio - Mike DeWine (R)
DeWine is a pansy GOPer who is part of the GOP's problems in Ohio - mainly moderation and corruption. His son got blasted in OH-2 House primary, and he may also face a primary challenge. Right now, Jerry Springer is his biggest opponent. However, a couple of more serious Dem candidates are still weighing a run or holding their house seats (Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown). If either of those guys gets in, kiss DeWine goodbye. I see this happening and you'll see me shed no tears.
DEM PICKUP

Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum (R)
Santorum, despite being a two term incumbent, is trailing Bob Casey Jr by 10 points. Bob is the state treasure and son of former and popular gov Bob Casey Sr. Santorum is in trouble, right up there with Rod Gramms in 2000. His career is over.
DEM PICKUP

Florida - Bill Nelson (R)
Nelson got this seat in a good year against a bad opponent. If those conditions hold up, he'll be back. A bad opponent? Right now that would be GOP front runner Katherine Harris who polls about 8 points behind Nelson. A good opponent would be Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher who are currently squaring off in the GOP primary for gov. Both men currently beat Nelson in the polls by 5 points. Ideally these guys get together and sort things out. A glorious candidate would be Jeb Bush, but he continues to maintain that he's seeking no office in 2006 or 2008. Unless Harris is dislodged, Nelson holds. I hold out hope for Crist or Gallagher and a GOP win.
GOP PICKUP

Virginia - George Allen (R)
Allen's only real danger comes from a challenge from Gov. Mark Warner. If Warner is a good party guy, he'll take on Allen and this race becomes a tossup. If Warner is greedy, he'll sit this out and run for Prez in 2008. If Warner is smart he will run for geriatric Sen. John Warner's senate seat in 2008. Warner's pretty smart.
GOP HOLD

Maryland - Paul Sarbannes (D) Retiring
Black Lt. Gov Micheal Steele is the likely GOP candidate, and creates a good deal of hope in this sky blue state. The dem field is packed but there are really only two serious contenders - white US Rep Ben Cardin and black NAACP head and former US Rep Kweisi Mfume. It may seem gratuitous to throw race around, but race is everything in this race. Polling shows Cardin beating Steele by 5 points by holding the white vote. Steele beats Mfume by 5 points by getting the white vote. But Mfume beats Cardin in a Dem primary by getting the black vote, which is everything in MD Dem primaries. Now there are a lot of candidates in the primary, and they may skew the dynamics for a Cardin win. But I see Mfume winning the primary and losing the general.
GOP PICKUP

Delaware - Thomas Carper (D)
Former Gov. Carper beat GOP geriatric lion Bill Roth in 2006. The only person on the GOP bench who has a chance, and not a very good one at that, is US Rep Mike Newcastle. Newcastle has bowed out of the race and will probably not run for senate unless there is an open seat.
DEM HOLD

New Jersey - John Corzine (D) Retiring?
Corzine is currently running for gov and is winning in the polls by 7 - 10 points. Assuming Corzine is out of the way and this is a an open seat, things get mildly interesting. The GOP has Tom Kean Jr, a state sen and son of former gov and 9/11 commissioner Tom Kean Sr. He is the best they can do. The Dems have many choices amongst their house delegation, but their best choice is acting gov Richard Codey, who also happens to be extremely popular. Corzine will get to play a part if he wins the gov seat by picking his replacement for the next year.

There are many dynamics at play, including the post 9/11 shift to the GOP that has thrown some bleach on that New Jersey blue. Ultimately we need to keep tabs on this race, but my best guess is the dems hold.
DEM HOLD

New York - Hillary Clinton (D)
Hillary and the NY Dems will have a cake walk in 2006 with Pataki not running for Gov and Pirro not running for senate. Rudy is being asked to run for the senate or the gov seat, either of which he leads in the polls by 5 points - but Rudy has his eye on 2008. Why would he squander his presidential chances with a tough race in NY? Hillary wins easy.
DEM HOLD

Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee (R)
Chaffee is the most liberal republican in the senate. A party switch isn't out of the question, and his vote is rarely counted on. He also lives in a deep blue state and was polling way behind Rep. Jim Langevin. Langevin eventually bowed out, with a lot of suspicion that Chuck Schumer chased him off because of his pro-life views. Now Chucky is stuck with Sec. State Matt Brown who is young, shrill, and polls 15 points below Chaffee.
GOP HOLD - I guess

Connecticut - Joe Lieberman (D)
Lieberman's biggest challenge will be facing down a liberal peacenik college professor in the primary. Not a single GOPer of note has stepped up to challenge for this seat, and even the GOPers of note would get smoked.
DEM HOLD

Mass - Teddy Kennedy (D)
It's hard to beat someone with no one. It is looking increasingly likely that Kennedy's biggest opposition will once again come from the Libertarian party.
DEM HOLD

Vermont - Jim Jeffords (I) Retiring
Jumping Jim is out, and the front runner to replace him is another (I) - socialist Bernie Sanders. On the GOP side all we know is that Gov Jim Douglas will not run. A slew of former speakers, Lt. Govs, and state office holders are still considering. I find it sickening that we'll have a self avowed socialist in the senate (although Bernie's politics are identical to most New England Dems) but its going to happen. There is a slight chance the GOPer will catch fire, but don't hold your breath.
DEM HOLD - I HOLD

Maine - Olympia Snowe (R)
So far Snowe is unopposed. I find this surprising. Maine is a blue state and even a B-lister would stand a reasonable shot. Till then, Snowe is re-elected.
GOP HOLD

West Virginia - Robert Byrd (D)
The geriatric Klan Kleagle is in real trouble... if US REP Shelly Moore Capito runs. Byrd's liberalism has caught up to him in a state that went for Bush twice. Moore has polled even to slightly ahead of Byrd, but has not yet committed. If she runs, she puts the old Byrd out to pasture. I think she might.
GOP PICKUP

Wisconsin - Herb Kohl (D)
The good natured rich guy dem will cruise to re-election. If he ever faces real trouble, he can buy his way out of it. However, there is a glimmer of GOP hope in former Gov. Tommy Thompson. However, its getting late in the game and I don't see it happening.
DEM HOLD


So lets check the score card:
DEM HOLD: 12
GOP HOLD: 12
DEM PICK UP: 3
GOP PICK UP: 6
NEXT SENATE: 58 GOP - 41 DEM - 1 IND (DEM)