Closing the Book on 2007
It probably seems early to give up on the Twins - "what about last year!" - exclaims the average fan? (As a Cubs fan first, this sentiment really confuses me - last year?) I'm here to tell you, last year was a fluke. In order for the Twins to rebound from their current record of 22-24 (I'm assuming they win today against the Rangers up 5-2 in the 8th) they need to do what they did in the last week - win 2 of 3 in every series from now till October. If they do that they will win 100 and the Central. And I'll throw them a bone and say they can split 5 even numbered series (2 or 4 games) and only win 95 - that should be good for the Central or the Wild Card.
Have we seen anything that makes us believe that the Twins can do this? Well, if Scott Baker pitches all year like he did in Milwaukee, if Silva puts his awful start against Texas behind him and Ramon Ortiz returns to April form and Johan Santana wins another Cy Young and Tori Hunter continues hitting .320 and Joe Mauer quickly gets healthy and Morneau continues his MVP level of play and Cuddyer turns up his power numbers a notch and Kubel becomes Kuddy Jr. then yeah... they have a shot.
But the fact is injuries are catching up and schmucks like Punto (.230), Rodriquez (.203), Tyner (.259) and Lew Ford (.185) are getting far too many at bats. Mauer is beyond the 15 days yet still on the DL. RonDL White might be available for a fall fashion show. Bartlett has a mystery problem with an MRI coming (but hey, isn't he one of those schmuck hitters at .240? Au contraire - Bartlett started the season with a nasty 1 for 20 slump. If you back that out he's hit .275 ever since.) Perkins and Reyes go down meaning no lefties (although Reyes loss is addition by subtraction) and Crain is down for the year.
The Twins can deal with the pitching injuries... for now. But any more and the bullpen really starts to thin.
The prudent thing to do now is hold a firesale of guys who won't be here next year. Let's review:
CF Torii Hunter - He's putting up MVP type numbers and leads all CF's in offense. His stock has never been higher and a number of teams could use great defender who provides his pop at 5 or 6.
2B Luis Castillo - I love Mr. Fast&Furious, I really do and I'd like to see him in Minnesota forever, but unlike Hunter the Twins actually have an in house replacement in Alexi Cassilla and the Twins just can't afford $5-$6M contracts on zero HR guys when ALL of their farm system talent resides in zero HR guys (except for one dude in low A ball who leads the Twins system with 6HR). It also helps that Castillo is still providing gold glove D and hitting .328 (.372 OBP). You know there are plenty of contenders who would love his speed, D, and offense (and reasonable contract) at second for the stretch run.
RP Juan Rincon - He has been Mr. 8th inning for the Twins and I believe he is the most valuable pitching chip the Twins can afford to offer a contender with his 2.75 ERA. I wholly believe that Neshak is ready and good enough to take over 8th inning duties, Guerrier is forgotten but brilliant, and Crain will be back next year for 4 quality right handed arms in the bullpen (including Nathan). And, Rincon is going to get paid soon. If the Twins can't afford $5M on Castillo, they certainly can't spend $3M on a relief pitcher.
SP Carlos Silva - His last two starts have been awful and have driven up his ERA from 3.00 to 4.50. The good news is that he spent the first quarter of the season pitching at 3.00 ERA level and eating innings like he did in 2004 and 2005. His 'here and now' value suffers from the last two starts - but another quality start or two should be enough to convince a contender that he is a proven option at the back of the rotation.
SP Ramon Ortiz - Ortiz managed to use the month of May to double his 2.57 April ERA to 5.37 on the year. Hopefully he can put together a quality start or two and fool a team into taking his cheap contract for a prospect or two.
Cutting Ortiz and Silva loose means bringing Garza and Slowey up for a rotation of: Santana, Boof, Baker, Garza, and Slowey. This pretty much burns up the pitching prospects, but the Twins still have Perkins who can start this year, Liriano who will be back next year, and some pretty decent AA prospects for the rotation and bullpen.
For sure the Twins need to address three positions when they make trades - a premier CF prospect, a power hitting 3B prospect, and a pure slugging DH type of guy. I'm even willing to follow Marty's advice and look for a catcher while Mauer is moved to third - the problem there is finding offensive value at catcher is quite difficult.
My suggestion to Terry Ryan - shop Torii and a pitcher now to a contender to get a premiere prospect. When that trade goes down, the league will take notice and Ryan should get good value. At that point, put the remaining pieces on the bloc and start receiving offers from contenders. I believe this strategy gives the Twins the best shot get some power at third, a reasonable replacement in center, and chance to contend in 2008.
Have we seen anything that makes us believe that the Twins can do this? Well, if Scott Baker pitches all year like he did in Milwaukee, if Silva puts his awful start against Texas behind him and Ramon Ortiz returns to April form and Johan Santana wins another Cy Young and Tori Hunter continues hitting .320 and Joe Mauer quickly gets healthy and Morneau continues his MVP level of play and Cuddyer turns up his power numbers a notch and Kubel becomes Kuddy Jr. then yeah... they have a shot.
But the fact is injuries are catching up and schmucks like Punto (.230), Rodriquez (.203), Tyner (.259) and Lew Ford (.185) are getting far too many at bats. Mauer is beyond the 15 days yet still on the DL. RonDL White might be available for a fall fashion show. Bartlett has a mystery problem with an MRI coming (but hey, isn't he one of those schmuck hitters at .240? Au contraire - Bartlett started the season with a nasty 1 for 20 slump. If you back that out he's hit .275 ever since.) Perkins and Reyes go down meaning no lefties (although Reyes loss is addition by subtraction) and Crain is down for the year.
The Twins can deal with the pitching injuries... for now. But any more and the bullpen really starts to thin.
The prudent thing to do now is hold a firesale of guys who won't be here next year. Let's review:
CF Torii Hunter - He's putting up MVP type numbers and leads all CF's in offense. His stock has never been higher and a number of teams could use great defender who provides his pop at 5 or 6.
2B Luis Castillo - I love Mr. Fast&Furious, I really do and I'd like to see him in Minnesota forever, but unlike Hunter the Twins actually have an in house replacement in Alexi Cassilla and the Twins just can't afford $5-$6M contracts on zero HR guys when ALL of their farm system talent resides in zero HR guys (except for one dude in low A ball who leads the Twins system with 6HR). It also helps that Castillo is still providing gold glove D and hitting .328 (.372 OBP). You know there are plenty of contenders who would love his speed, D, and offense (and reasonable contract) at second for the stretch run.
RP Juan Rincon - He has been Mr. 8th inning for the Twins and I believe he is the most valuable pitching chip the Twins can afford to offer a contender with his 2.75 ERA. I wholly believe that Neshak is ready and good enough to take over 8th inning duties, Guerrier is forgotten but brilliant, and Crain will be back next year for 4 quality right handed arms in the bullpen (including Nathan). And, Rincon is going to get paid soon. If the Twins can't afford $5M on Castillo, they certainly can't spend $3M on a relief pitcher.
SP Carlos Silva - His last two starts have been awful and have driven up his ERA from 3.00 to 4.50. The good news is that he spent the first quarter of the season pitching at 3.00 ERA level and eating innings like he did in 2004 and 2005. His 'here and now' value suffers from the last two starts - but another quality start or two should be enough to convince a contender that he is a proven option at the back of the rotation.
SP Ramon Ortiz - Ortiz managed to use the month of May to double his 2.57 April ERA to 5.37 on the year. Hopefully he can put together a quality start or two and fool a team into taking his cheap contract for a prospect or two.
Cutting Ortiz and Silva loose means bringing Garza and Slowey up for a rotation of: Santana, Boof, Baker, Garza, and Slowey. This pretty much burns up the pitching prospects, but the Twins still have Perkins who can start this year, Liriano who will be back next year, and some pretty decent AA prospects for the rotation and bullpen.
For sure the Twins need to address three positions when they make trades - a premier CF prospect, a power hitting 3B prospect, and a pure slugging DH type of guy. I'm even willing to follow Marty's advice and look for a catcher while Mauer is moved to third - the problem there is finding offensive value at catcher is quite difficult.
My suggestion to Terry Ryan - shop Torii and a pitcher now to a contender to get a premiere prospect. When that trade goes down, the league will take notice and Ryan should get good value. At that point, put the remaining pieces on the bloc and start receiving offers from contenders. I believe this strategy gives the Twins the best shot get some power at third, a reasonable replacement in center, and chance to contend in 2008.
posted by Bill Gilles | 12:36 PM
2 Comments:
Bill: I agree with most of your analysis, but what planet are you on? The Twins are brilliant in building their farm system, but terrible at midseason adjustments and supplementing through free agents or trades. --Mike
You are wrong! When it comes to trades I shall list:
AJ for Liriano, Nathan, and Boof
Buck Buchanan for Bartlet
Milton for Silva and Punto
Knoblach for Milton and Guzman
Dougie baseball for anybody (low A pitcher actually)
Dustin Mohr for Shannon Stewart
Some of these guys might suck now, but all of them gave the Twins at least a couple of good seasons.
While you can pan the Rick Reed for Matt Lawton midseason deal, you can't pan the mid-season Stewart deal the next year.
I would argue the Twins are better at trading than player development.
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