5 Reasons Why Vikings Will Fall Short in '08
I'm going to try to get three Viking's posts out before the season gets too old. This is my current predictions. The second will by the continuation of my draft vs. Chili's draft. And finally a roster comparison, the 3rd annual one, of my roster vs. Chili's. But for now, why the Viking's aren't all that good.
1 - Tarvaris Jackson is not a good QB
I don't mean T-Jack isn't good now, everyone knows that. I mean T-Jack will never be a good QB. He will single-handedly give away winnable games this year and do very little to scare the secondary away from run defense. Until the Vikings realize this, they will continue to miss the play offs.
Caveat (I'll be proved wrong if...) I'm not wrong.
2 - The Receiving corp isn't much better
Yeah, Bernard Berrian is an upgrade as he provides a legitimate number two receiver to the roster. The problem is, that top spot is still unfilled. And what's the old cliche, a tight end is a young QB's best friend? Well, the Vikes have a young QB, but I'm pretty sure Visanthe Shiancoe has no best friends. This void at TE will kill the Vikes.
Caveat - Sidney Rice has real potential. If he has a breakout year as a legit #1 reciever - the playoffs could be reached.
3 - The O-Line is a mess
Artis Hicks will start at LT for the first 4 games while Bryant McKinney serves a 4 - game suspension. Artis Hicks lost his job as starting right guard to Anthony Herrera early last year for a reason - the reason is NOT that Herrera is talented. Herrera could start on 2, maybe three teams - the Vikings are one of them. RT is also suspect with Ryan Cook. Chili reached by spending a 2nd round pick on him two years ago - when a 7th would have done the job. Cook is too slow and his mistakes are masked by extra blockers and that T-Jack is mobile and the right hander has a front row view to Cook's mistakes. Birk is still good, but not the Pro-Bowler he once was. Hutch is awesome, but that is all.
Caveat - T-Jack's mobility and the gameplan offset the damage till McKinney comes back in week 5.
4 - The running game is only as good as AP's health.
Chester Taylor is a good back, and the Vikes can run with him as the primary option, but he's no AP. He'll get yards, but he won't change games. AP has missed significant time in every season since he was a freshman at Oklahoma. I wish him health, but AP had better hope for change.
Caveat - AP stays healthy
5 - Can the D-Line meet expectations?
The D-Line will be very good, but expectations have them leading the league in sacks and masking a mediocre secondary. They essentially have to be the best line in the league, or at least rival the Giant's performance of last year. Here's the thing, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams will always be double teamed. Pat Williams can push a single defender back, but he's not getting around anyone. This leaves it to Ray Edwards to make plays one-on-one. In short, the difference between a good line and a great line is whether Ray Edwards can make plays in isolation. This is an open question.
Caveat - Ray Edwards has 10+ sacks.
Prediction - 8-8
1 - Tarvaris Jackson is not a good QB
I don't mean T-Jack isn't good now, everyone knows that. I mean T-Jack will never be a good QB. He will single-handedly give away winnable games this year and do very little to scare the secondary away from run defense. Until the Vikings realize this, they will continue to miss the play offs.
Caveat (I'll be proved wrong if...) I'm not wrong.
2 - The Receiving corp isn't much better
Yeah, Bernard Berrian is an upgrade as he provides a legitimate number two receiver to the roster. The problem is, that top spot is still unfilled. And what's the old cliche, a tight end is a young QB's best friend? Well, the Vikes have a young QB, but I'm pretty sure Visanthe Shiancoe has no best friends. This void at TE will kill the Vikes.
Caveat - Sidney Rice has real potential. If he has a breakout year as a legit #1 reciever - the playoffs could be reached.
3 - The O-Line is a mess
Artis Hicks will start at LT for the first 4 games while Bryant McKinney serves a 4 - game suspension. Artis Hicks lost his job as starting right guard to Anthony Herrera early last year for a reason - the reason is NOT that Herrera is talented. Herrera could start on 2, maybe three teams - the Vikings are one of them. RT is also suspect with Ryan Cook. Chili reached by spending a 2nd round pick on him two years ago - when a 7th would have done the job. Cook is too slow and his mistakes are masked by extra blockers and that T-Jack is mobile and the right hander has a front row view to Cook's mistakes. Birk is still good, but not the Pro-Bowler he once was. Hutch is awesome, but that is all.
Caveat - T-Jack's mobility and the gameplan offset the damage till McKinney comes back in week 5.
4 - The running game is only as good as AP's health.
Chester Taylor is a good back, and the Vikes can run with him as the primary option, but he's no AP. He'll get yards, but he won't change games. AP has missed significant time in every season since he was a freshman at Oklahoma. I wish him health, but AP had better hope for change.
Caveat - AP stays healthy
5 - Can the D-Line meet expectations?
The D-Line will be very good, but expectations have them leading the league in sacks and masking a mediocre secondary. They essentially have to be the best line in the league, or at least rival the Giant's performance of last year. Here's the thing, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams will always be double teamed. Pat Williams can push a single defender back, but he's not getting around anyone. This leaves it to Ray Edwards to make plays one-on-one. In short, the difference between a good line and a great line is whether Ray Edwards can make plays in isolation. This is an open question.
Caveat - Ray Edwards has 10+ sacks.
Prediction - 8-8
posted by Bill Gilles | 4:49 PM
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