Set Sail with the Vikings
I predicted the Vikings would finish 4-12 last year. A new coach, a new system, a new offensive line, a failed draft and a geriatric QB spelled disaster in my eyes. The Vikes showed me by winning 6 games, but one of those was that flukey win over Carolina. I have 6 changes the Vikes must make, and if they do - they could be a 10-6 wildcard team.
1 - QB: If any of the existing trio starts for the Vikes next year, they don't have a chance for a .500 seaon. Brad is done, Bollinger is a career backup, and Tarvaris simply is not ready. Many a Viking fan holds out hope for the young QB, but my money is on bust - and at the very least he is not ready to lead a winning team.
There are two options for the Vikings to address this scenario - giving up a draft pick for David Carr or using their first pick on Brady Quinn if he falls to 7. Right now Carr seems the better value since the rumor is a 4th or 5th round pick will get him. I'd go as far as packaging a 3 and a 5 for him. The other possibility is Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn falling to 7. Some scouts are calling him the biggest fraud since Joey Harrington, thus the fall from unanimous #1 for the past 18 months - but I still believe. If Quinn is there at 7, the Vikes should take him. He is still #1 on my Viking's board and Quinn would be an amazing pick up. Outside of Carr and Quinn, I don't believe there is a reasonably decent QB available that can turn this team around.
2 - RG and RT: The right side of the line was atrocious last year. One of the moves I liked early, the trading of the 6th pick for RG Artis Hicks, ended up a disaster. Hicks played like a 6th rounder and will never start again. 2005 2nd Rounder Marcus Johnson was moved from RG to RT and didn't fare well. Injuries eventually brought in old stand by's like Rosenthall and wasted 2nd round pick Ryan Cook. I still believe Johnson can play, but I don't like him as a tackle or as a tandem of mediocrity on the right. A solid lineman next to Johnson, and a shift away from zone blocking, would probably do wonders for a guy who just has to hold his own on a talented line. So one more piece is needed.
And the piece will have to come in the draft. The free agency pool is thin, but happily for the Vikes, the O-Line talent in the draft is thick. It starts with Badger tackle Joe Thomas, but he won't fall past Arizona at 5. I have seen Penn St. tackle Levi Brown as high as the Vikes 7th, as low as 20, but recently between 9 and 12. I've got my eye on Levi with the 7th pick, but mainly I think the 2nd round is the key. Since the Vikes pick so early, they could either get the number 3-5 tackle in the draft, or the number 1-3 guard in the draft. I'm convinced there will be execellent O-line value with that pick - the only caveat is that there will also be excelent WR value there too - but that's another post.
3 - Pass rushing DE: This is frustrating for the Vikes. They used two high 1st round draft picks to get Udeze and Erasmus James. Both have spent their careers being injured and league average. There is a small hope that one of these guys will provide the solution, but I have a feeling the injuries have taken away the special sacking ability in college that made them 1st rounders. Free agency offers some hope, and the Vikes should explore it, but franchise tags have been flying onto the good DE's. The draft offers two very highly touted pass rushing DE's in Jamal Anderson and Gaines Adams. Anderson is more highly regarded and expected to go from 4-7, most likely to Arizona if they don't get Thomas, and Adams anywhere from 5-10, with most mocks putting him at 7 with the Vikes. A possible 2nd round option for the Vikes is Quentin Moses who was widely considered a top 5 guy going into his senior season, but he stunck and is now considered a low 1st round choice. He might be there in the 2nd.
4 - WR and WR
I for one don't put much stock in having great WR's, but clearly the Vikes recievers stink out loud and replacements are needed. The hope of getting a game changing reciever are slight, although I do believe there are 2 or 3 in this draft. That's saying something, when there are only about 6 game changing WR's in the league. I also find it interesting that those game changers are 50-50 when it comes to 1st or 2nd round selections in the draft. And let's not neglect the high number of top 10 busts in recent years (Peter Warrick - 3rd, Carlos Rogers - 3rd, Troy Williamson - 7, Mike Williams - 10).
The free agency market for WR's is considered soft, but a good number of them represent a significant upgrade over the curret Viking crop. I suggest getting one of the higher profile ones. The draft has alot of good WR's, but unless Calvin Johnson drops to 7, which is highly unlikely with most mock drafts putting him 1st to 4th, I don't think the Vikes will get a value pick in the 1st round. In fact, I will be sorely dissappointed if the 7th pick is used on Ted Ginn Jr. or Dwayne Jarret. Now if the Vikes were able to trade down to 15, I think there are 3 or 4 good options there, and that there will still be 1 or 2 decent value picks at WR in the early 2nd round. I'm guessing there are a number of sleepers in later rounds as well, but I am thinking the Vikes should grab one WR in free agency, and another on the first day of the draft.
5 - RB
Chester Taylor had a good year, but he broke down. He doesn't seem to have the frame to withstand a full season. However, this is the last position I address for a reason. Between Taylor and Mewelde Moore, the Vikes should be ok at RB. Unfortunately, Childress has no love for Moore and won't use him. This team needs a backup RB the coach can trust, or needs to get a frontline stud. Free agency offers a few decent backup options, and the draft offers one stud in Adrian Peterson who could go from 2 to 8. If Peterson is available at 7, the Vikes should either take him or think about trading the pick. I believe there is enough demand for Peterson that a team will give their mid to late 1st round and 2nd pick to get him. A deal like that could let the Vikes stock up on O-Line and WR (two of one, and one of the other in the first two rounds). However, if the Vikings take Peterson, I believe they will be very happy with their choice.
6-Coaching - Chilly lost his team last year, and failed to implement a system that matches his player's skill. That's not an uncommon problem for a new coach. A good coach will generally substitute his personel to fit his system over a year, or change his system. The biggest incongruity with the Vikings is the use of zone blocking when you have big maulers like Birk, Hutch, and Marcus Johnson. I believe in a man blocking system these guys will excel, much like Philly did after Childress left. I fear that Childress thinks zone blocking is "smarter" than man blocking, and thus his arrogance will cloud his judgement - just as it did in the draft last year.
1 - QB: If any of the existing trio starts for the Vikes next year, they don't have a chance for a .500 seaon. Brad is done, Bollinger is a career backup, and Tarvaris simply is not ready. Many a Viking fan holds out hope for the young QB, but my money is on bust - and at the very least he is not ready to lead a winning team.
There are two options for the Vikings to address this scenario - giving up a draft pick for David Carr or using their first pick on Brady Quinn if he falls to 7. Right now Carr seems the better value since the rumor is a 4th or 5th round pick will get him. I'd go as far as packaging a 3 and a 5 for him. The other possibility is Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn falling to 7. Some scouts are calling him the biggest fraud since Joey Harrington, thus the fall from unanimous #1 for the past 18 months - but I still believe. If Quinn is there at 7, the Vikes should take him. He is still #1 on my Viking's board and Quinn would be an amazing pick up. Outside of Carr and Quinn, I don't believe there is a reasonably decent QB available that can turn this team around.
2 - RG and RT: The right side of the line was atrocious last year. One of the moves I liked early, the trading of the 6th pick for RG Artis Hicks, ended up a disaster. Hicks played like a 6th rounder and will never start again. 2005 2nd Rounder Marcus Johnson was moved from RG to RT and didn't fare well. Injuries eventually brought in old stand by's like Rosenthall and wasted 2nd round pick Ryan Cook. I still believe Johnson can play, but I don't like him as a tackle or as a tandem of mediocrity on the right. A solid lineman next to Johnson, and a shift away from zone blocking, would probably do wonders for a guy who just has to hold his own on a talented line. So one more piece is needed.
And the piece will have to come in the draft. The free agency pool is thin, but happily for the Vikes, the O-Line talent in the draft is thick. It starts with Badger tackle Joe Thomas, but he won't fall past Arizona at 5. I have seen Penn St. tackle Levi Brown as high as the Vikes 7th, as low as 20, but recently between 9 and 12. I've got my eye on Levi with the 7th pick, but mainly I think the 2nd round is the key. Since the Vikes pick so early, they could either get the number 3-5 tackle in the draft, or the number 1-3 guard in the draft. I'm convinced there will be execellent O-line value with that pick - the only caveat is that there will also be excelent WR value there too - but that's another post.
3 - Pass rushing DE: This is frustrating for the Vikes. They used two high 1st round draft picks to get Udeze and Erasmus James. Both have spent their careers being injured and league average. There is a small hope that one of these guys will provide the solution, but I have a feeling the injuries have taken away the special sacking ability in college that made them 1st rounders. Free agency offers some hope, and the Vikes should explore it, but franchise tags have been flying onto the good DE's. The draft offers two very highly touted pass rushing DE's in Jamal Anderson and Gaines Adams. Anderson is more highly regarded and expected to go from 4-7, most likely to Arizona if they don't get Thomas, and Adams anywhere from 5-10, with most mocks putting him at 7 with the Vikes. A possible 2nd round option for the Vikes is Quentin Moses who was widely considered a top 5 guy going into his senior season, but he stunck and is now considered a low 1st round choice. He might be there in the 2nd.
4 - WR and WR
I for one don't put much stock in having great WR's, but clearly the Vikes recievers stink out loud and replacements are needed. The hope of getting a game changing reciever are slight, although I do believe there are 2 or 3 in this draft. That's saying something, when there are only about 6 game changing WR's in the league. I also find it interesting that those game changers are 50-50 when it comes to 1st or 2nd round selections in the draft. And let's not neglect the high number of top 10 busts in recent years (Peter Warrick - 3rd, Carlos Rogers - 3rd, Troy Williamson - 7, Mike Williams - 10).
The free agency market for WR's is considered soft, but a good number of them represent a significant upgrade over the curret Viking crop. I suggest getting one of the higher profile ones. The draft has alot of good WR's, but unless Calvin Johnson drops to 7, which is highly unlikely with most mock drafts putting him 1st to 4th, I don't think the Vikes will get a value pick in the 1st round. In fact, I will be sorely dissappointed if the 7th pick is used on Ted Ginn Jr. or Dwayne Jarret. Now if the Vikes were able to trade down to 15, I think there are 3 or 4 good options there, and that there will still be 1 or 2 decent value picks at WR in the early 2nd round. I'm guessing there are a number of sleepers in later rounds as well, but I am thinking the Vikes should grab one WR in free agency, and another on the first day of the draft.
5 - RB
Chester Taylor had a good year, but he broke down. He doesn't seem to have the frame to withstand a full season. However, this is the last position I address for a reason. Between Taylor and Mewelde Moore, the Vikes should be ok at RB. Unfortunately, Childress has no love for Moore and won't use him. This team needs a backup RB the coach can trust, or needs to get a frontline stud. Free agency offers a few decent backup options, and the draft offers one stud in Adrian Peterson who could go from 2 to 8. If Peterson is available at 7, the Vikes should either take him or think about trading the pick. I believe there is enough demand for Peterson that a team will give their mid to late 1st round and 2nd pick to get him. A deal like that could let the Vikes stock up on O-Line and WR (two of one, and one of the other in the first two rounds). However, if the Vikings take Peterson, I believe they will be very happy with their choice.
6-Coaching - Chilly lost his team last year, and failed to implement a system that matches his player's skill. That's not an uncommon problem for a new coach. A good coach will generally substitute his personel to fit his system over a year, or change his system. The biggest incongruity with the Vikings is the use of zone blocking when you have big maulers like Birk, Hutch, and Marcus Johnson. I believe in a man blocking system these guys will excel, much like Philly did after Childress left. I fear that Childress thinks zone blocking is "smarter" than man blocking, and thus his arrogance will cloud his judgement - just as it did in the draft last year.
posted by Bill Gilles | 1:17 PM
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