2008 NFL Draft - Billi vs. Chilli Part 3

Since 2006 I've been tracking my draft vs. the actual Vikings draft. As last year, I'm late to the table as the 3rd game of the season starts tomorrow. I will do my best to ignore information know after the draft and give my honest evaluations of my roster's needs. First we need to compare our respective rosters - and I also have the option to accept trades the Vikings actually made, or reject them (so long as I own the pieces that were given up). I considered adjusting my draft position based on projected results (my team does not have AP, my team would have more losses) but I'm not sure how to do this without terribly skewing the results.

My Roster vs Actual Roster by Position

QB

Brady Quinn vs. Tarvarious Jackson

Brady threw 8 passes last year and Jackson played 12 games. Yes I know now that Chilli benches T-Jack after week 2, but I never liked him - see any previous post on Vikings. I will not claim that Quinn would have been much better than Jackson in his rookie year. I'm not a fan of playing rooking QB's, so he may have only thrown 8 passes on my team. But the fact remains, Quinn is still a prospect and T-Jack never was.

I also wasted a 3rd round pick in 2006 on Omar Jacobs who was gone before the 2006 training camp ended. Chilli wasted a 6th rounder by letting the Cheifs grab Bobby Thigpen on waivers.

Advantage - Me. I have a prospect, Chilli has crap and let the better QB (Thigpen) walk for nothing.

RB/FB

Michael Bush vs. Adrian Peterson
AP was the best offensive player in the league last year. Bush didn't play a snap in 2007. Bush had a nice game in week two of 2008, but I don't know that. What I know is that I have a good college running back coming off a terrible leg injury. I'm hoping he's an adequate backup to Chester Taylor. Taylor is AP's backup, so...

Advantage Chilli - big time

WR/TE
My Roster - WR Maurice Stovall, WR Dwayne Jarret, TE Ben Petrick
Chili's roster - WR Sidney Rice, WR Aundrae Allison, WR Chandler Wilson

Stovall is a 3rd year vet who has produced very little in Tampa. He played in 5 games and only had 10 receptions in '07. This year he is 4th on the Bucs depth chart. Jarret played in only 4 games for Carolina in his rookie season and had 6 receptions. This year he is 4th on the depth chart. Patrick played 5 games for the Cardinals in his rookie season and is the backup TE this year.

Rice played 11 games his rookie season for the Vikes and outperformed everyone with 31 receptions. He is currently second on the Vikes depth chart. Allison had 5 receptions in 8 games last year and is 5th on the Vikes depth chart. Wilson was cut during training camp.

Woe is us, both groups are pretty poor. I need Jarret to step up and I have a decent TE in Patrick. Rice is the best player of the group, but still unproven while Allison and Stovall are just roster filler at this point.

Advantage - Chilli

O-Line

My Roster - T Winston Justice, C Greg Eslinger, G Josh Beekman
Chilli Roster - T Ryan Cook, G Artis Hicks

Justice has been the back up T in Philly the past couple of years, but they have pro-bowlers at both positions. He is well known for a disasterous start against the Giants last year when 8 sacks were given up, most on his watch. In my system, he would have played RT and thus avoided that Sportscenter moment. He is well liked, still developping, and a better RT than any option on the Vikes current roster. Eslinger is with his third team in three years serving on the Houston practice team. Beekman is presently the primary backup G in Chicago.

Hicks lost his starting job in game 3 last year and is improbably the starting LT while McKinney is suspended. Cook is the starting RT, and not highly regarded. He's pretty terrible.

Advantage Me - Justice and Beekman provide real starting options. Beekman is a backup now, but has been starting in Chicago due to injuries to the starters. Both have long term potential. Justice would most certainly be my starting RT, Beekman would probably backup Herrera.

D-Line
My Roster - DE Mark Anderson
Chilli Roster - DE Ray Edwards, DE Brian Robison

Anderson is the primary backup DE for a very deep Bears line. He had 12 sacks his rookie season and followed up with 5 in year two as a backup. Considered a top notch pass rusher, probably a starter on most teams - would definitely start on my team.

Edwards had 3 sacks his rookie season, and 5 last year as a starter. Edwards beat out Erasmus James for a starting position last year and with Udeze recovering from cancer is starting this year. Robison is the primary backup DE this year and had 4.5 sacks in his rookie season as the 2nd backup.

Advantage Me - Anderson is far and away the best DE. Edwards is probably overmatched as a starter but will get his chance this season. Anderson allows me to consider other options than trading for Jared Allen.

LB
My Roster - ILB Abdul Hodge, ILB Brandon Siler
Chilli Roster - OLB Chad Greenway, OLB Rufus Alexander

Hodge had a rough rookie season and spent 2007 on the IR after surgeries on both knees. He now resides on Cinci's practice squad. Siler was largely a special teams player for the Chargers during his rookie season and appears to be doing the same this year.

Greenway is a very solid OLB starter for the Vikes who might end up being great. Alexander was cut by the Vikings after training camp.

Advantage Chilli - I have a serious hole in the LB corps.

DB's
My Roster - CB Ashton Youboty, CB Kenny Scott, CB Anthony Arline
Chilli Roster - CB Cedric Griffen, CB Marcus McCauley

Youboty played special teams for the Bills during his rookie season and became the nickel back last year. He continues as the nickel back this year and continues to show upside. 7th round picks Scott and Arline never reported to training camp.

Griffen has been starting at CB the past two years, but to mixed results. McCauley has struggled to hold down the nickel spot for the Vikings.

Advantage - Chilli. Youboty and Griffen are a wash, but McCauley is useful as a 3 or 4th CB.

Before the draft I know DE Udeze will miss the year recovering from cancer. T McKinnie's arrest happened before the draft - I figure he'll miss 2-4 games (ended up being four games).

So here are my team needs:

QB - I could use a backup.
RB - I'm deep, but I don't have a star.
WR - I'm weak but deep. An elite WR or TE would be good.
OL - McKinnie's situation is a problem. It may be time to cut him...
DL - I need depth after losing Udeze.
LB - I really need another solid starting LB.
CB - I could also use a very good CB.

5 Reasons Why Vikings Will Fall Short in '08

I'm going to try to get three Viking's posts out before the season gets too old. This is my current predictions. The second will by the continuation of my draft vs. Chili's draft. And finally a roster comparison, the 3rd annual one, of my roster vs. Chili's. But for now, why the Viking's aren't all that good.

1 - Tarvaris Jackson is not a good QB

I don't mean T-Jack isn't good now, everyone knows that. I mean T-Jack will never be a good QB. He will single-handedly give away winnable games this year and do very little to scare the secondary away from run defense. Until the Vikings realize this, they will continue to miss the play offs.

Caveat (I'll be proved wrong if...) I'm not wrong.

2 - The Receiving corp isn't much better

Yeah, Bernard Berrian is an upgrade as he provides a legitimate number two receiver to the roster. The problem is, that top spot is still unfilled. And what's the old cliche, a tight end is a young QB's best friend? Well, the Vikes have a young QB, but I'm pretty sure Visanthe Shiancoe has no best friends. This void at TE will kill the Vikes.

Caveat - Sidney Rice has real potential. If he has a breakout year as a legit #1 reciever - the playoffs could be reached.

3 - The O-Line is a mess

Artis Hicks will start at LT for the first 4 games while Bryant McKinney serves a 4 - game suspension. Artis Hicks lost his job as starting right guard to Anthony Herrera early last year for a reason - the reason is NOT that Herrera is talented. Herrera could start on 2, maybe three teams - the Vikings are one of them. RT is also suspect with Ryan Cook. Chili reached by spending a 2nd round pick on him two years ago - when a 7th would have done the job. Cook is too slow and his mistakes are masked by extra blockers and that T-Jack is mobile and the right hander has a front row view to Cook's mistakes. Birk is still good, but not the Pro-Bowler he once was. Hutch is awesome, but that is all.

Caveat - T-Jack's mobility and the gameplan offset the damage till McKinney comes back in week 5.

4 - The running game is only as good as AP's health.

Chester Taylor is a good back, and the Vikes can run with him as the primary option, but he's no AP. He'll get yards, but he won't change games. AP has missed significant time in every season since he was a freshman at Oklahoma. I wish him health, but AP had better hope for change.

Caveat - AP stays healthy

5 - Can the D-Line meet expectations?

The D-Line will be very good, but expectations have them leading the league in sacks and masking a mediocre secondary. They essentially have to be the best line in the league, or at least rival the Giant's performance of last year. Here's the thing, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams will always be double teamed. Pat Williams can push a single defender back, but he's not getting around anyone. This leaves it to Ray Edwards to make plays one-on-one. In short, the difference between a good line and a great line is whether Ray Edwards can make plays in isolation. This is an open question.

Caveat - Ray Edwards has 10+ sacks.

Prediction - 8-8