The Rapist, for a Thousand Alex

Now that Kobe wants out of LA, the mad scramble will go on and here is why the T-Wolves should be putting up an offer for the rapist.

We know that the Wolves, even with the 7th pick working out wonderfully, won't be able to compete next year. The best case scenario is squeeking into the playoffs, especially since Boston owns the 2008 pick, so no use tanking the season. However, if Kobe could be paired with KG, then the Wolves will contend for the West until the era of Portland domination takes off in 2010.

Here is the T-Wolves offer for Kobe:
F Ricki Davis (1 year and $7M left)
G Marko Jaric (3 years $5M)
G Randy Foye (2 years $3M)
2007 #7 Draft pick

The money works (within 20% of Kobe's $17.5M), The Lakers only have to eat one bad contract in Jaric, they can use Ricki to replace Kobe in the lineup if they maintain delusions of competing next season or they can use his expiring contract as trade bait (If they get cheap, they can let him walk and end up knocking $10M off their cap busting number). They get last year's #7 pick in Foye and this year's #7 pick (likely a very good forward) to pair with Farmar, Bynom and Odom. Yes the Lakers would be rebuilding with a true youth movement and no real shot at the playoffs, but it would be a REAL movement with lots of decent prospects. I haven't seen anyone besides Boston that can provide that quality of picks (this year's #5 with Boston and Minnesota's #1's next year).

Minnesota would roll with a lineup of Blount - KG - Kobe - McCants - James. Kobe and KG alone may come close to the Kobe-Shaq duo that powered 3 titles in LA, but Minnesota has a better supporting cast around them than the Lakers provided. (This in now way gurantees playoff series victories over Phoenix, San Antonio or Dallas, but dang - they could hang!).

Kobe may not like the cold or small market, but he could compete right away (he can veto any trade). I can also see another older veteran (a la Karl Malone and Chris Webber) wanting to jump on board for chump change to ride the gravy train.

If you want to see other scenario's that might compete with this offer, check out the sports guy at ESPN.

Besides the Pheonix offer and what Boston could provide, none of the other options compete with this package.

Closing the Book on 2007

It probably seems early to give up on the Twins - "what about last year!" - exclaims the average fan? (As a Cubs fan first, this sentiment really confuses me - last year?) I'm here to tell you, last year was a fluke. In order for the Twins to rebound from their current record of 22-24 (I'm assuming they win today against the Rangers up 5-2 in the 8th) they need to do what they did in the last week - win 2 of 3 in every series from now till October. If they do that they will win 100 and the Central. And I'll throw them a bone and say they can split 5 even numbered series (2 or 4 games) and only win 95 - that should be good for the Central or the Wild Card.

Have we seen anything that makes us believe that the Twins can do this? Well, if Scott Baker pitches all year like he did in Milwaukee, if Silva puts his awful start against Texas behind him and Ramon Ortiz returns to April form and Johan Santana wins another Cy Young and Tori Hunter continues hitting .320 and Joe Mauer quickly gets healthy and Morneau continues his MVP level of play and Cuddyer turns up his power numbers a notch and Kubel becomes Kuddy Jr. then yeah... they have a shot.

But the fact is injuries are catching up and schmucks like Punto (.230), Rodriquez (.203), Tyner (.259) and Lew Ford (.185) are getting far too many at bats. Mauer is beyond the 15 days yet still on the DL. RonDL White might be available for a fall fashion show. Bartlett has a mystery problem with an MRI coming (but hey, isn't he one of those schmuck hitters at .240? Au contraire - Bartlett started the season with a nasty 1 for 20 slump. If you back that out he's hit .275 ever since.) Perkins and Reyes go down meaning no lefties (although Reyes loss is addition by subtraction) and Crain is down for the year.

The Twins can deal with the pitching injuries... for now. But any more and the bullpen really starts to thin.

The prudent thing to do now is hold a firesale of guys who won't be here next year. Let's review:

CF Torii Hunter - He's putting up MVP type numbers and leads all CF's in offense. His stock has never been higher and a number of teams could use great defender who provides his pop at 5 or 6.

2B Luis Castillo - I love Mr. Fast&Furious, I really do and I'd like to see him in Minnesota forever, but unlike Hunter the Twins actually have an in house replacement in Alexi Cassilla and the Twins just can't afford $5-$6M contracts on zero HR guys when ALL of their farm system talent resides in zero HR guys (except for one dude in low A ball who leads the Twins system with 6HR). It also helps that Castillo is still providing gold glove D and hitting .328 (.372 OBP). You know there are plenty of contenders who would love his speed, D, and offense (and reasonable contract) at second for the stretch run.

RP Juan Rincon - He has been Mr. 8th inning for the Twins and I believe he is the most valuable pitching chip the Twins can afford to offer a contender with his 2.75 ERA. I wholly believe that Neshak is ready and good enough to take over 8th inning duties, Guerrier is forgotten but brilliant, and Crain will be back next year for 4 quality right handed arms in the bullpen (including Nathan). And, Rincon is going to get paid soon. If the Twins can't afford $5M on Castillo, they certainly can't spend $3M on a relief pitcher.

SP Carlos Silva - His last two starts have been awful and have driven up his ERA from 3.00 to 4.50. The good news is that he spent the first quarter of the season pitching at 3.00 ERA level and eating innings like he did in 2004 and 2005. His 'here and now' value suffers from the last two starts - but another quality start or two should be enough to convince a contender that he is a proven option at the back of the rotation.

SP Ramon Ortiz - Ortiz managed to use the month of May to double his 2.57 April ERA to 5.37 on the year. Hopefully he can put together a quality start or two and fool a team into taking his cheap contract for a prospect or two.

Cutting Ortiz and Silva loose means bringing Garza and Slowey up for a rotation of: Santana, Boof, Baker, Garza, and Slowey. This pretty much burns up the pitching prospects, but the Twins still have Perkins who can start this year, Liriano who will be back next year, and some pretty decent AA prospects for the rotation and bullpen.

For sure the Twins need to address three positions when they make trades - a premier CF prospect, a power hitting 3B prospect, and a pure slugging DH type of guy. I'm even willing to follow Marty's advice and look for a catcher while Mauer is moved to third - the problem there is finding offensive value at catcher is quite difficult.

My suggestion to Terry Ryan - shop Torii and a pitcher now to a contender to get a premiere prospect. When that trade goes down, the league will take notice and Ryan should get good value. At that point, put the remaining pieces on the bloc and start receiving offers from contenders. I believe this strategy gives the Twins the best shot get some power at third, a reasonable replacement in center, and chance to contend in 2008.

Wolves-Bulls Magic (not the Orlando kind)

The Bulls did not get the lottery pick they need to be a regular contender and the time to deal is now. The rumor mill says Pau Gasol is the target, but the better fit is with the Wolves for Garnet.

Now why would the Wolves give up Garnet? Well, let's look at their lineup next year:

C: Mark Blount
PF: Kevin Garnet
SF: Brandon Wright (according to ESPN mock draft)/Ricki Davis
SG: Randy Foye/Rashad McCants
PG: Mike James

This team is intriguing since it could go big by benching Ricki Davis and playing the 6-10 Wright or could go small by benching Blount. The only problem is that Foye and McCants still need lots of seasoning, Ricki still takes days off, Blount is inconsistent, and Wright is 19 and skinny. I like the young guys, but they won't get you past the 1st round of the playoffs should they luck into them. By the time the young guns arrive KG will be well past his prime (34).

KG on the roster ensures mediocrity and crappy draft picks. Both the Wolves and KG deserve better. Thus the trade to the Bulls...

Here's the trade and it will be rough on Chicago but ensure Eastern Conference Finals.

Wolves give up KG and the Bulls give up:
SG Ben Gordon
F Tyrus Thomas
2007 #9 draft pick
Sign and trade PJ Brown to one year $9.8M contract to make the money work (or any other player willing to sign for one year, but Brown kind of makes sense for one year Wolves, so I'll go with that).

Whew, that's alot for the Bulls to give up. It means moving Noccione, Duhon, or Thabo off the bench and into the 2 spot, but also means a starting lineup of:

C - Ben Wallace
PF - Kevin Garnett
SF - Luol Deng
SG - Chris Duhon
PG - Kirk Hinrich

Thabo and Noccione are still on the bench for decent depth. That is a scary lineup with scoring, defense, selfless play, experience, and energy.

Now look at the Wolves - I would still have them take Brandon Wright (or Julian Wright from KU or Al Horford from Florida - one or more will be there at 7) and according to ESPN 7-2 Georgetown Center Roy Hibbert is available at 9.

C - Roy Hibbert
PF - Tyrus Thomas
SM - Brandon Wright
SG - Ben Gordon
PG - Randy Foye

Bench:
C - Blount
F - Ricki Davis
G - Rashad McCants
G - Mike James

Next season, Davis has one year and $6.5M remaining - trade bait! Mike James with 2 years at $5M is also quite tradeable and should be. This will remove any silly ideas by the coach that he must play veterans to 'win now, " Hell No! Lose now, get another great pick next year, develop the young talent, and hope a superstar or two emerges to support Gordon, and that McCants and future draft picks become excellent bench players so that the Wolves can contend with Portland by 2010.

This is the only hope...

NBA Dreams

The NBA held their lottery last night and the fates of three teams were sealed. The Trail Blazers have been guaranteed a shot at every championship from 2009-2019. The Timberwolves have been shut out from that discussion till at least 2011 (post Garnet), and the Bulls know that the time to make a big move is now.

The Trail Blazers - Last night the West got stronger with Seattle and Portland going 1 and 2 and thus ensuring two new superstars in the talent packed Western Conference. I feel bad for Seattle since Durant on that team will only be good enough to put them in the Kevin Garnet mid-range team talent that will ensure no lottery picks and 1st round playoff exits - and a move to Oklahoma... ouch.

Portland on the other hand now has the nucleus to compete starting in 2009. Their 2006 draft of LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Brandon Roy (6) and Sergio Rodriguez(27) has already been graded a "home run" and now add Oden in this year's draft - goodnight. Next year will be a building block year as Oden gets used to the NBA game and the young talent learns to work together. Just look at what they will roll with next year:

C - 7'1" Greg Oden: 19-year old superstar of the future.

PF - 6'9" 25-yr old Zach Randolph had a break out year going 23.6 pts and 10 rebounds (vs career averages of 16 and 8). He also has 4 years at $12M per left on his contract. He is backed up by Aldridge who had a nice rookie season so Randolph could become trade bait - or just provide a solid scoring option.

SF - 6'7" 25-yr old Darius Miles should come back from micro fracture surgery after missing all of this year. The Blazers are on the hook for another 3 years at $7.75M - if he can start or backup then Udoka and Outlaw can be let go to save money. However this position is a long term question mark unless Miles comes back healthy, productive, and meshes with this team that will seem brand new to him.

I think they have some flexibility to move Roy here if Martel blows up and the other good news is that the NBA is stacked with SF talent. It is quite possible that after next season when LaFrentz has one year and $11.5M left, he can be moved for a quality SF from a team looking to make changes (ie Allen Iverson type of trade). Another if - Aldridge becomes a solid PF and Randolph can be moved for a front line SF. While this is a question mark now I believe there is a 90% probability that by the trade deadline of the 2008 season this will be addressed (I didn't even consider the 2008 draft where I'm guessing they'll pick 10-14).

SG - 6'6" 22-year old Brandon Roy had a ROY season with a 16.8 pt avg and 4 assists and rebounds a game. Could also be a SF.

PG - 6'3" 23-year old Jarret Jack has impressed his sophomore year and could be the in house answer at PG for years to come. He averages 12 pts and 5 assists a game and has a reputation as a fierce backcourt defender and excellent free throw shooter. Critics say he needs to work on his 3-pt range, I say with the talent around him he needs to get his Assists average into double digits and continue using his stout frame to slash the lane and draw free throws. The last thing the Blazers need here is a shoot first guard - they need a pass, slash, or pass (then maybe shoot) point guard.


Bench
C - 7'1" 27-year old Gopher Joel Pryzbilla has 4 years left at $5M a year (while averaging 2 pts and 4 rbds a game) and WAS the starting C last year. He now becomes a solid backup or possibly trade bait since he is backed up by last year's #2 pick 6'10" 21 yr old LaMarcus Aldridge (9 pts and 5 rbds a game). Jamaal Magloire and his $8.5M will be let go and after paying Oden $4.5 will get the Cap number down from $21.5M to $17.5M over.

PF - Aldridge can back up here as does Raef Lafrentz. While I have a soft spot for the former Jayhawk, he's pretty much washed up and untradeable till after next season with 2 years at $11.5M remaining. Portland can't wait to take him off the books.

SF - 29 yr old Ime Udoka was the starter last year, I'm not a believer he's that good and his cheap $700k salary is up. If they can sign him cheap, might be worth keeping him around as a backup.

22-yr old Travis Outlaw's rookie contract expires this year ($1.8M) and he has shown steady improvement, but nothing spectacular. Blazers could play the young Outlaw against the older Udoka against each other for back up money.

Perennial backup Fred Jones has one year left at $3.1M and won't be a factor.

SG - 20-yr Old 6'7" Martell Webster showed some improvement. He is under contract for next year and will have the chance to backup and show he is a long term solution next to Roy as the 2 or 3.

PG - Dan Dickau has never established himself and has one year left at $2.7M. I see him being a practice squad guy or trade bait while last year's late #1 Sergio Rodriquez gets the bulk of back up minutes. Sergio seems to have the pass first mentality that might fit better than Jack's skill set and thus might be the long term starter at Point.

If I'm in charge of the Blazers, I don't worry about my record next year. I worry about player development and chemistry. I expect to miss the playoffs and get a crappy draft pick in 2008 (13 or 14), but I don't care. I don't tank games to improve my pick because my focus is getting these guys feel like winners and work hard every game. Oden, Randolph, and Roy get every minute they can give and I make sure Aldridge gets every spare minute to show his stuff and develop. Heck, if Miles doesn't work out I may go with a big team and start him with Oden and Randolph (yikes!). I also do everything I can to determine the best mix at 3 with Miles and Martell as the front runners. And finally I stage a fierce competition at point between Jack and Rodriguez.

For 2008 I fix the 3 spot by trading Raef and my 1st pick if Miles or Martell don't work out. I expect to have my starting 5 set and experienced and I expect to make the playoffs. In 2009 and beyond, I expect to make a real run at the Conference championship on a regular basis.

Of course, this all assumes that Oden is for real and not Kwame Brown Jr.