Wolves What ifs...

What if the Wolves get the 3rd and 11th pick in this year's draft combined with their own #7 and last year's #7 which is Randy Foye? I project they will have these 4 in their starting lineup:

7-06 PG Randy Foye
7-07 SG Corey Brewer
11-07 SF Julian Wright
3-07 PF Al Horford


What if the Wolves had this set of draft picks in the past? I took a look back to 2000-2001
05-06 Draft Lineup:

3 - SF Adam Morrison
7 - PG Randy Foye
11 - SG JJ Redick
7* - PF Charlie Villanueva

Three ball hogs and a big man. I can't say I like this nucleus, too small, too selfish, and Redick and Morrison look like busts. For each group I'm giving a total of avg points scored and total average rebounds or assists (whichever is greater). This groups totals are low since they are young, but they aren't the lowest in points but are at about half in secondary stats - (41 pts - 13 R/A)

04-05 Lineup
3 - PG Deron Williams
7 - PF Charlie Villanueva
11 - C Fran Vazquez
*7 - SF Luol Deng

Except for Fran, this is a pretty good nucleus. They come in with a 47 pt - 22 R/A. Still about one player away from greatness.

03-04 Lineup
3 - SG Ben Gordon
7 - SF Luol Deng
11 - PF Andris Biedrins
*7 - PG Kirk Hinrich

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chicago Bulls! But in real life replace Biedrins with Ty Thomas and add Ben Wallace. These 4 come in at at 68 pts and 24 R/A

02-03 Lineup
3 - SF Carmello Anthony!
7 - PG Kirk Hinrich
11 - SG Mikael Pietrous
7* - PF Nene Hilario

Now it's the Denver Nuggets, with help. This group has the highest scoring at 69 pts and 24 R/A. This group is a little small, but add a decent big man and they would compete for titles.


01-02 Lineup
3 - SF Mike Dunleavy
7 - PF Nene Hilario
11 - SF Jared Jeffries
7* - C Eddie Griffen

This is the saddest group of them all with 36 pts and 22 R/A. Nene is the only one who doesn't belong on the bench.

00-01 Lineup
3 - C Pau Gasol
7 - C Eddie Griffen
11 - PG Kedrick Bell
7* - C Chirs Mihm

Even though this is clearly the tallest group, the finish 3rd in R/A at 23 and only bring a few more points that the 05-06 class at 43!

The good groups had solid 3's and 7's. Assuming we think Foye is solid, which I do, then it comes down to Horford and Brewer. Are they equal to Gordon and Deng? How about Carmelo and Nene? Gordon and Deng seem the more likely template. However, I believe the 11th pick this year will be like another 7 in any other drafts thanks to the depth created by the rule changes. So I predict the 2007 11 will be better than any other 11 listed.

Clearly if the Wolves get this deal, they will need to find one more piece. It could come in next year's draft if they stay in the top 3 (otherwise they lose the pick), or they could make a secret deal with KG to come back after a year, or they could poach a disgruntled star (Kobe, Pierce, whoever, there's 2 or 3 every year).

Dream Wolves

I don't know what it is, I don't even like the NBA, but I've been sucked into this post and off season. And it is a terrible Wolves team that is sucking me in.

Right now they are so bad they are going to trade KG and two scenario's seem to top the board:

Scenario 1 - Wolves get Amare Stoudemire and one of their 1st rounders (24 or 29).
Scenario 2 - Atlanta gets involved and Wolves get Atlanta's 3rd and 11th picks.

In Scenario 1 I'd like to see the Wolves go after a big man late in the 1st:
1st Choice-Glenn (Big Baby) Davis... Remember this guy from the NCAA's two years ago? He was the dominant force and personality of that LSU team. Well, weight issues have him projected low in the 1st, but on the bright side he's a big body, moves well and has excellent offensive skills and can rebound. I'll take my chances if he's around. Odds he'll be around at 29 - 75%

2nd Choice -Sean Williams... Probably the best shot blocker in the draft and great D. Not much offense and a rap sheet a mile long. Considered the best player outside the lottery but character issues could drop him way down the 1st. Odds at 29 - 25%

3rd Choice - Nick Fazekas... Excellent offensive skills but is considered frail for an inside player. He is beefing up, but has a ways to go. Odds at 29 - 75%

With the Wolves #7 I go for a 2 or 3:

1st Choice - Corey Brewer... Florida's shooting guard is the best defender in the draft and provides excellent size opposite Foye in the backcourt. His 3-pt shot is coming along but the slashing Foye would have to carry the offense in the backcourt - which he should do. Odds available at 7 - 60%

2nd Choice - Julian Wright... Maybe I'm just a homer for KU, and 7 seems real early, but Wright is tall, good at defense, unselfish, considered a natural passer assist guy, think of a point forward like Pippen. Wolves could use a guy like this with Foye the official point guard but really more a scoring threat than offensive leader. Odds available at 7 - 99%

Scenario 1 lineup - ideal
PG - Foye... the young slasher leads the offensive attack from the backcourt
SG - Brewer... spots up to hit the 3 and provides ferocious defense to best 2's and 3's
SF - Ricky Davis... this is more by default, but he scores 20 every now and then
PF - Amare Stoudemire... leads team in scoring, rebounding and intensity
C - Davis... Very big body who can score, rebound, and take up space

Key Bench Players - Blount, McCants

Likely result - Wolves lose and get a top 10 pick, but not a draft protected top 3 and thus lose it to Clippers. Wolves should be on the prowl to package expiring contracts to pick up a disgruntled 3 or hope KG opts out after next year and comes back in 2009. A dispirited Paul Pierce is also another possibility sometime in 08 or 09. At that point, the Wolves will be serious playoff contenders.

Scenario 2 (Wolves have the 3rd, 7th, and 11th picks)

3rd Pick:
1st Choice - Providence Smiling :-) Essentially Portland or Seattle has a brain fart and doesn't take Oden or Durant and Wolves get either one. 1% chance.

2nd Choice - Al Horford... This Gator is clearly the best player after Oden and Durant. Very solid power forward who can score and rebound, but defense is still developing. Odds available - 99%

7th Pick:
1st Choice - Corey Brewer... Same reasons as above - great defender! Odds available at 7 - 60%

2nd Choice - Julian Wright... I don't want to risk losing Julian by 11 if Brewer is gone at 7. Odds available at 7 - 99%

11th Pick
1st Choice - Julian Wright... It would be sweet to get Wright at 11 and Brewer, but the Kings at 10 are eying him so it's a coin flip he's available. Odds available at 11 - 50%.

2nd Choice - Brendan Wright... the other Wright is thought to have a higher ceiling, but has lazy issues. I'm willing to take a chance at 11 on a guy who could be the 3rd best in the draft. Odds available at 11 - 20%

3rd Choice - Smorgasbord... If both Wright brothers are off the board - which is quite possible - filling the need for a 3 now becomes dicey. Jeff Green from Georgetown is potentially available here, but that is no better than 50-50. The Wolves could go small and take PG scoring dynamo Acie Law, but he duplicates Foye if Wolves get Brewer at 7 or makes for a small backcourt if Brewer isn't in back court.

The other option is to go big and one of these two should be around - C Spencer Hawes who has decent offensive skills or Joakim Noah who provides energy, defense, and limited O.

Personally, I like the idea of taking Noah with the third choice especially if I got Gators Horford and Brewer. All of a sudden I'm sitting on 3 starters from the last two NCAA champs and throwing in Randy Foye. This would instantly change the team chemistry and reduce the learning curve between the players.

The Wolves lineup should I get my ideal picks:
Scoring Guard - Randy Foye
Defensive Guard - Corey Brewer
Point Forward - Julian Wright
Power Forward - Al Horford
Center - Mark Blount

Key bench - McCants, Davis

This team is young and will likely stink enough next year to get a pick in the top 3 - thus protected from the Clippers. I'd like them to add 7'2" G-town center Roy Hibbert who is a defensive monster. With Brewer shutting down the backcourt and Hibbert dominating the front court on D, a little chemistry on offense could win many games starting in 2010.

If by chance we replace Julian Wright with Noah, and thus become the Minnesota Gators, they will still get a top 3 pick and can take the best scoring forward available or go after a disgruntled one in a trade.

Twins Third Done Installment

After today's game against the Oakland A's, the Twins will have quite literally finished 1/3 of the season. For players who have regularly started this is a fun place to take significant stats times 3 and project where they'll be at the end of the year. Some highlights:

- 84 wins

- Morneau with 48 HR, 132 RBI, 75 BB, and 99K's (MVP II)

- Hunter with 33HR, 135 RBI, 36 BB, 114 K's, and 27 SB (contract year?)

- Cuddyer with 21 HR, 111 RBI, 69 BB and 114 K's (Needs to pick up the power)

- Punto with 78 BB and 90 K's (When did Punto start taking pitches and walks?!? He leads the team, this is inexplicable unless ESPN stats are just wrong.)

Kings of Control - BB/K (Bold is more BB than K)
L. Rodriguez 5/3
J. Bartlett 17/19
N. Punto(!) 26/30
J. Cirrilo 8/5
L. Castillo 14/11
J. Mauer 16/15

King's of Swing (Bold is a multiple of 3 or greater)
T. Hunter 12/38
M. Cuddyer 23/38
J. Kubel 11/33
J. Tyner 4/8
A. Casilla 1/8
L. Ford 2/6
J. Rabe 0/7

Interesting Team Vs. Stats

The Twins have 3 fewer AB than their opponents through 53 games, so these stats are quite approximate.

-Runs: 254 - 233 - Twins on pace to score 762, about 90 fewer than the Yankee's pace.

-Twins have 26 more hits than opponents - 505-479 for a .275 - .260 advantage

-Twins have slight edge in XB hits with 105 - 98.

-Twins getting killed with the long ball losing that race 40 - 61 (OUCH!)

-Twins close in BB with a lead of 176 - 170. This stat recognizes that Twin pitchers are slightly more stingy than the average staff (ranked 9th), and that the batters are slightly less patient than average (ranked 18th).

-Twins enjoy a HUGE advantage in the K zone leading 382-270 (who needs defense?)
This is a perfect storm of Twins not striking out (4th lowest in league) and a dominant staff (4th highest in league)

-Twins also outrun their opponents in SB with a 42-19 advantage while also avoiding CS with an 8-14 advantage.

How important are homeruns? Even with a huge advantage running the bases and striking out the other team, the Twins are only 3 over .500 because of their -20 HR deficit.

Also of note, the Cleveland Indians will be going to the World Series this year. Every other AL team is along for the ride. The Indians had the kind of performance last night, scoring 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Tigers. This ensures the Indians win the Central and have the confidence and swagger to sweep all future competition to the waste bin of the 2007 AL season. Considering the ineptitude and self destructive NL, just give the Indians the crown now.

Finally, the Twins have done what I asked of them since writing them off, and then some. Their sweep of the White Sox and win vs. the A's means they have effectively won 4 series in a row. Now just 30 to go... Good think inter league play starts soon.