Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 7: Future Roster

This post will be terrible reading, but is necessary for reference purposes. Following are future Wolves rosters based on possible outcomes of various factors.

The McHale - everything goes wrong. McHale makes no trades for picks, loses all free agents, attracts only unknown free agents, and the Wolves fall out of the top 3 picks thus losing their 2008 selection to the Clippers.

PG - Randy Foye
SG - Rashad McCants
SF - Corey Brewer
PF - Al Jefferson
C - Chris Richard

6 - F Craig Smith
7 - G Marko Jaric
8 - F Antoine Walker
9 - C Mark Madson
10 - G Greg Buckner
11 - Early 2nd Round pick

The GREATEST EVER! All my suggested trades happen and Wolves land 1st pick in draft:

PG - Foye
SG - Brewer
SF - Mike Beasley (1st pick)
PF - Al Jeff
C - Roy Hibbert (Atl Pick)

6 - G McCants
7 - F Smith
8 - F Tyler Hansbrough (SA pick)
9 - C Brian Skinner (picked up in PHO trade)
10 - C Richard
11 - G Jaric
12 - C Madson
13 - F Walker
14 - G Buckner


2nd Pick + All Trades
PG - Derick Rose
SG - Randy Foye
SF - Brewer
PF - AlJeff
C - Hibbert

6 - G McCants
7 - F Smith
8 - F Hansbrough

No trades - 1st Pick

PG - Randy Foye
SG - McCants
SF - Brewer
PF - Beasley
C - AlJeff

No trades - 2nd pick
PG - Derick Rose
SG - Randy Foye
SF - Brewer
PF - Al Jeff
C - Chris Richard

Third Pick And Roll (it over to a trade to Clips for their 1st rounder and Wolves pick in 2009)

PG - Foye
SG - McCants
SF - Brewer
PF - (couple of options, still developing in the 6-9 range for PF's)
C - Al Jeff

This post will be updated and narrowed down once the trade deadline passes and again after the lottery.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 6: TRADE DEADLINE!

The trade deadline is in two hours, so to make this official I had to get my trades out there.

Trade 1: Suns send Eric Piatkowski, Brian Skinner and ATL first round pick to T-Wolves for Sebastian Telfair and Wolves second round pick.

The Suns do this because they don't value 1st round picks that are guaranteed contracts. They get back a decent PG to back up Nash and replace Marcus Banks. They also get a very high 2nd round pick that is cheap and useful. Piatkowski is 37 and played in 13 games this year, he won't be missed. Backup Center Skinner is playing 15 minutes every night, but is less important now that Shaq is on the roster.

Wolves get a backup Center on the cheap and get a 1st round pick that will likely be used on C Roy Hibbert!

Trade 2: Minnesota sends Gerald Green to New Orleans for Julian Wright.

Green just lit up New Orleans at the All-Star break and his popularity is at an all time high. New Orleans can use him as an offensive presence who is ready to contribute off the bench. The Wolves get Wright who isn't used at all in New Orleans, but has been described as a versatile point-forward. If he develops well, he may be the perfect complement to the not so point guard Randy Foye.

Trade 3: Ryan Gomes to San Antonio for 2008 1st round pick and player TBD.

Wolves won't be bringing back Gomes, no reason too. And he would be an excellent fit in San Antonio as an understudy to Bruce Bowen. Wolves would have 3 1st round picks (essentially slightly upgrading their 2nd round pick lost to the Suns) to reload the team.

Trade 4: Salary Dump of Ratliff and Doleac for a disgruntled star? (Marbury, Vince Carter, etc)
Absolutely not! Even with the addition of one great player, the Wolves would still finish under .500 and not sniff the playoffs. If the guy brought in is a head case now, just wait till he spends a winter losing in MN. And worse, it jeopardizes the Wolves draft position for this year. Now maybe if the guy is injured for the rest of this year, has one year left on the contract, and the Wolves will lose the 2009 pick to the Clippers anyway... (you could just barely justify bringing on Marbury to screw the Clippers).

Trade 5: Salary Dump guys for a bad contract and a prospect or high draft pick?
I fully support this and I outlined how a trade for Ben Wallace might work. The bonus with Wallace is the mentorship he can give to Roy Hibbert when we make that trade with the Suns. There are plenty of other bad contracts and good picks to be had (Brian Cardinal in Memphis, Tinsley in Indiana, etc), I urge McHale to be creative. Even without dumping Ratlif and Doleac, the Wolves will shed enough contracts to fall under the salary cap next year.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 5: Draft Analysis

I've made it clear that I love F Mike Beasley and PG Derick Rose for the upcoming draft. Beasley is a solid 6'9" who can play and guard either Forward position. Imagine the defensive, tall lineup the Wolves could run with:
PG - Randy Foye 6'4"
SG - Corey Brewer 6'7"
SF - Mike Beasley 6'9
PF - Al Jefferson 6'11"
C - Roy Hibbert 7'2" (We need that mid round pick, make the trade!)

This lineup features 3 excellent defenders and 3 excellent scoring threats. You could win a championship with this lineup. The downside is that Foye is not a true PG so the team will lack the boost you get from true PG that makes everyone else better. I think this team is talented enough to overcome this.

PG Derrick Rose is also the real deal and a very good team can be built around him, just smaller:

PG - Derrick Rose 6'4"
SG - Randy Foye 6'4"
SM - Corey Brewer 6'7"
PF - Al Jefferson 6'11"
C - Roy Hibbert 7'2"

Plenty big on the big end, but Foye and Brewer will likely give up inches, probably not a big deal for Brewer. This lineup still has three excellent scorers and two D specialists in Brewer and Hibbert - this team reminds me most of the Pistons. If they learn to play as a team and Rose can make everyone better, this team is a contender.

SG Eric Gordon is #3 on ESPN's prospect list, but I just don't believe. He might be a better version of Randy Foye, but is also a tweener and I'm willing to run with Foye.

#4 is Center DeAndre Jordan. A wise man once told me that success as a center is all about effort, thus the big contract years. The knock on Jordan is effort... no thanks.

#5 is Center Brook Lopez - this is a good player and a big man who can score, but lets his twin brother do the rebounding and defense. Well, the Wolves already have Al Jefferson who can score and not play D. I want my next big man to have the mindset of Ben Wallace, not Al Jeff.

#6 is an Itallian, no thanks

#7 is SG OJ Mayo - Mayo topped this board at one point, but is deemed one dimensional - that dimension being offense, and lots of it. That's fine, but with Foye, I'm comfortable at SG. Should be a Clipper...

#8 is F Donte Green - tall and skinny, but explosive. If the Wolves make the swap with the Clips I detailed in an earlier post, I'd look at Green in that range (7-10).

Clearly I think the Wolves should look for a C or PG if they can't get Beasley (even though the Wolves desperately need a good 3, I think they should hold out for an elite one or trust that the NBA is deep at the position and a Kobe trade demand is right around the corner...)

Here are other notable players at the C or PG position I'd like them to look at once they MAKE TRADES for these picks.

C Marreese Speights - ranked #11 by ESPN, but is an undersized center. Good player, but I don't think he'd fit next to AlJeff

PG Ty Lawson - ranked #13 and described as streaky by ESPN. A PG should not be streaky.

PG DJ Augustine is ranked #14 by ESPN and they post this note - "Augustin is a huge fan of Steve Nash and it shows in his game." YES! Now that's the kind of PG I want. Even if he's coming off the bench to give a Beasley lineup the "makes team better PG" or starts in the "we got screwed by the Clippers" lineup, I like this guy.

C Kevin Love is ranked #15 by ESPN, and in my opinion should not enter the draft this year. Too soon.

C Roy Hibbert is ranked #18 by ESPN and is falling on most scouts scorecards because the senior has not improved his averages, but I still love the guy. Will be able to focus on D and rebounding next to AlJeff and has played well against other big prospects. Please, please, please trade for Atlanta's pick!

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 4: The Clipper Pick

Among the many reasons I hate Marko Jaric is that McHale gave away a 1st round pick to the Clippers to acquire him. This pick was protected - last year it was top 10 protected, this year top-3 protected, and next year is unprotected. No matter what happens, the Clippers will get an excellent player with this pick, and the Wolves will lose out. Most likely, the Wolves will pick in the top 5 this year and next. But there might be a way to alleviate the pain.

If the Wolves get the 1st or 2nd pick this year, I say they use it and take their medicine next year. The silver lining is that the Wolves can play to win and not worry about tanking for ping pong balls - but even without trying to lose, I see the Wolves in the 5 or 6 position next year. This opinion is based on my analysis that Mike Beasley or Derrick Rose are worth missing a draft. I prefer Beasley, but I could build this team around PG Rose, it would just be a smaller team.

If the Wolves get the 4th pick, they are screwed and completely lose out. The silver lining is that they will enter next year as the favorite to land the 1st pick - a distinction they held going into this year. If this happens, the later picks I'm hoping the Wolves will trade for will be crucial - as will continued development of young players such as Foye and Brewer.

If the Wolves land the 3rd pick, I would urge them to make a deal with the Clippers. Ideally they could trade the 3rd pick for the Clips pick this year (6-10) and for their own pick back. I think the Clips would do this because they have a huge need at PG and SG, and I expect both SG OJ Mayo (and local USC star) as well as PG Eric Gordon to be available here. And imagine if the Clips win the lottery and get #2 or #4 pick as well - they could take both or mix in Derrick Rose! But even if all they get is one or the other, they have to take that offer seriously. The upside for the Wolves is that there is a big drop off after Beasley and Rose, they can get someone useful in the 7-10 range (Augustine or Roy), and they have a good shot at the premiere player in 2009.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 3: Perfect Pick Storm

When the Suns dealt Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks to the Heat for Shaq, most people weighed the impact on the Western Conference playoffs. I immediately had a dream...

I dreamed that the addition of Marion to the Heat would make them good enough to sneak into the Eastern Playoffs - thus removing a competitor for the 1st pick and giving the Wolves Pick #15 to complete the Davis/Blount/Walker trade earlier this year.

I also dreamed that the resurgent Heat would have knocked out the Atlanta Hawks, thus slotting their pick at #11 - which is already owned by the Suns.

I then dreamed that the Suns, in search of a cheap backup PG to replace the expensive failure that was Marcus Banks, would agree to trade Atlanta's pick to the Wolves for competent PG Sebastian Telfair...

I then dreamed that the Wolves won the lottery and got the first pick of the draft.

I then had the audacity of hope that the Wolves would get F Mike Beasley at #1, PG DJ Augustine at #11, and C Roy Hibbert at #15.

I then dreamed of the Wolves rolling with a lineup of:
PG - Foye
SG - Brewer
SF - Beasley
PF - Jefferson
C - Hibbert
----
SG - McCants
PG - Augustine
PF - Smith

and making the playoffs in the 2009-2010 season...

Since I had that dream, the Hawks improved a lot by getting PG Mike Bibby - so their pick will likely be 15-16. It looks like Miami will still suck, but will probably drop out of lottery contention. And worst of all, Memphis will charge hard for the ping pong balls after giving away C Pau Gasol.

Still, I'd like to see the Wolves make that trade with the Suns to get Atlanta's pick. I'd also like to see them make a run at lightly used Julian Wright, a point forward out of Kansas who plays for the Hornets. I'm thinking a package built around a ready to play Gomes might do the trick. Otherwise I'd use Gomes to get a #1 pick, probably in the 20's. But hey, maybe those picks could be packaged to move up and make sure we land C Roy Hibbert (likely to go 10-15).

Here's another trade I'd like to see the Wolves make - The Bulls are trying to dump Ben Wallace who has two years left after this year. Here are the options I'd give the Bulls:

Wallace for Ratliff's expiring contract and Marko Jaric (Bulls would do this if they wanted to shed salary today)
Wallace + Joakim Noah for Ratliff and Doleac's expiring contracts - (Bulls would completely dump the salary at years end, but would have to pay in prospect for the premium).
Wallace + 1st Pick (likely 7-10) for Ratliff and Doleac (same concept, but pick premium instead of Noah)

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 2: Ranking the Wolves

I'm going to rank the Wolves as I see them 1-15. I will also grade them using my roster grades from the previous post. When applicable, I will list how coach Randy Whitman views the player or how the rest of the NBA views the player.

#1 PF Al Jefferson - A1: AlJeff is the only legitimate star and starter on this team.

#2 PG/SG Randy Foye - A1?: The problem with Foye is that injure has stunted his development so I'm only guessing his raw talent will translate into an A1 player, but the Wolves need it to happen. Right now, Randy is probably rated by the league as a B*.

#3 SG/SF Corey Brewer - A2? Brewer is just recently getting the minutes of a starter, and while his offense isn't there yet, his defense stands tall. Another player the league will see as a B*, but the guy has real talent and while his ceiling is lower than Foye's, I think he is far more likely to develop as expected.

#4 SG Rashad McCants - B: The Wolves have issues when only three guys are genuine NBA starters and two of those are questionable right now. I see McCants as a very useful offensive 6th man option once the Wolves get decent. In the mean time he should be starting and allowed to continue developing.

#5 PF Craig Smith - B: I like the little big man as a backup once the Wolves set their roster. He plays tough and has nice scoring touch. Also and excellent value as a 2nd round pick and not much value in the rest of the league. Very useful player for putting together a roster.

#6 PG Sebastian Telfair - B: Foye is a tweener guard whereas Telfair is a pass first point guard, which are all the rage right now. Telfair should be getting starting minutes this year, but his external value should be monitored. The Celtics gave up a 1st rounder for him, and there may be another team out there with a need for a pure PG back up (Suns?). I have no problem keeping him as a PG backup or pure PG option play once the roster is set in the future, nor would I hesitate to trade him for a mid 1st round pick.

#7 F Ryan Gomes - A2/B? I'm not sure how to grade Gomes who is getting starting minutes and doing very well. However, I don't believe he should be in the Wolves future plans. I think he'll get paid well after this season by another team, but with a salary under a millionthis year, he would be a very attractive commodity in a trade for a late 1st round pick.

#8 C Chris Richard - D1: The 8th most important player is now in the D-league... But I do see a future for Richard on this team. Again, I believe he is a very good 2nd round talent who could be the 8th guy or the big 9-10 guy. He'll be cheap and I believe he can be effective.

#9 F Gerald Green - B*: While I give Green a B*, and many NBA teams agree with me, Whitman has him as a D1 and will likely be releases at the end of the season. Hopefully the Wolves come to their senses and trade him for a 1st rounder (very cheap and tradeable contract) or Whitman comes to his senses and allow Green to be a big minute backup guy.

#10 C Mark Madson - D2: His contract at $2.5M is too big, but it goes a long time, so he might as well be the 5th big man on the team. Not completely useless, but close.

#11 C Theo Ratliff - D3: Theo might sign another contract after this year, but his value to the Wolves is purely that his contract goes away. Now some might want to be aggressive with his contract and trade for a another high priced player - which I would only endorse if it came back with top flight young talent or high picks.

#12 C Mike Doleac - D3: Just like Theo, but smaller contract.

#13 F Antoine Walker - D4: Has two years left on a big contract and already did his service to the Wolves by allowing them to dump Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. Sadly, Whitman still sees Walker as one of his best 5 - just look at all the minutes he gets in the 4th quarter in close games...

#14 SG Greg Buckner - D4: 3 more years left on his contract, thank goodness it is small peaking at $4M in the last year.

#15 PG/SG Marko Jaric - D4: Jaric is killing the team. He gets starting minutes and puts up D-League numbers. Every minute he plays steals development time from Telfair, Foye, McCants and Brewer. Allegedly his defense is great, but the D stats paint him average at best. His contract is as long as Buckner's and about double, maxing out at $7M in the last year. And to boot, the Wolves must give up this year's draft pick if 4 or greater, or give up next year's pick no matter how good. Wolves fans should pray that some team will take him off our hands.

Fixing the T-Wolves - Part 1: Roster Theory

Before we can fix the T-Wolves, we need to know what a good team looks like. Following is a breakdown of each roster spot, 1-15.

ROSTER SPOTS 1-5: Clearly the starters are the most important spots on any teams. Some teams pretend one of their top 5 is actually a backup (see Manu Ginobli and the San Antonio Spurs), but a good read of a teams top 5 is average minutes and who is in the game in the 4th quarter of a close game. Beyond identifying the top 5, there can exist a gulf of talent between 1 and 5 (see LeBron James and anyone else on the Cavs). For later grading purposes, I will grade starters who have a shot at the All-Star game as A1, and solid NBA starters as A2.

All sorts of different theories of the starting 5 have been created. Looking at recent history, I've identified 4 successful mixes that have won the NBA championship.

The Batman and Robin: Essentially this model takes the best player in the league and pairs him with a very competent sidekick. The Bulls with Jordan and Pippen (6 titles), the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe (3 titles), and the Heat with Shaq and Wade (1 title). The problem with this strategy is having the best player in the league. I think only Cleveland with LeBron, and maybe the Lakers with Kobe can pursue this option, but unless you want to knock Lamar Odom's Robin skills, Kobe has shown himself not to be a Batman. The T-Wolves have little chance hitting this formula unless they get Mike Beasley and he becomes that guy.

The GI Joe Ninja Team: I was always a big fan of the comic book and a regular side series was following the ninjas - Snake Eyes, Storm Shadow and Scarlett. Snake Eyes was the cool, popular ninja of the group, but the other two were close in ability. Most teams pursue this 3 star strategy and San Antonio with Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker has won 4 titles this way. This strategy could work for the Wolves, but I suggest they take the following path;

The X-Men: I hate the movies and I hate the comics, but it works for this analogy - essentially 5 players with pretty similar skills if different skill sets. I think this model is incredibly difficult to cultivate for two reasons - creating a team concept in the ultimate me league of the NBA, and the salary cap. Only Detroit has won a single title following this model. However, I think this model is the best bet for the Wolves.

These models take us back to 1991 sans the two titles won by Houston in 1994 and 1995. Other than Hakeem, I don't know how that team did it or what model they fall in.

ROSTER SPOTS 6-8: These are the team's key backups that get significant minutes and are important to a team's overall success. For grading purposes I give a B to a player who is a solid backup and a B* to a young player who is a back up now, but could be developed into a starter.

ROSTER SPOTS 9-10: These are lightly used backups who take up garbage time and fill in for injured players. Almost always one of these guys is a back up big since they are more likely to get winded and need a deeper reserve. This is a lousy place to develop a player, but that is quite common to see. These guys get a C grade.

ROSTER SPOTS 11-15: There are 5 uses for these spots. In descending order of usefulness, they are:
D-1: Stashing a young, undeveloped, talented player. Great place for a kid who comes out too early as a freshman and needs some years and practice before they can really contribute.
D-2: Injury reserve. Essentially you have a player in your top 8 who is prone to injury and a veteran option is needed as insurance, but otherwise gets no minutes.
E: Leaving the spot empty, all the other 'options' are really just salary cap killer.
D-3: A highly over paid and useless veteran who has one year left on their contract. The only way this person helps you win is that an expiring contract has some trade value.
D-4: An over paid useless veteran with multiple years left on their contract. For an example, please see the New York Knicks roster.

Fixing the T-wolves - Part 0

I haven't been a fan of the NBA since the 1980's, so it's strange that my hometown team after they send away one of the greatest players of all time and rack up one of the leagues worst records rekindles my interest in the whole league. Whatever the reason, I have been inspired. What is to follow is a planned 10 part series on turning the Wolves around.