Working the Draft - Does the Draft Work?

The NBA draft lottery is yet to happen, but the T-Wolves will most assuredly land a top 5 pick. This got me to thinking, how likely will they get an impact player? There have been some real stinkers in the past and I thought an analysis would be interesting. To follow are the top 5 picks from every draft going back to 1995 with a 1-5 grade. 5 = Likely hall of Famer (Shaq), 4 = Usual All-star, questionable hall of famer (Pau Gasol), 3 = Solid starter, rarely an All-star (Shane Battier), 2 = Questionable starter, good bench player (Wally Sczerbiak), 1 = Bust, shaky bench player at best (Gerald Green). I will average out each pick and also note the best players from a draft no matter where they were taken.

Year - (Year Average) - Best player from draft
Draft Position - Name - Grade

1995 - (3.4) - Kevin Garnett

1 - Joe Smith (2)
2 - Antonio McDyess (3)
3 - Jerry Stackhouse (3)
4 - Rasheed Wallace (4)
5 - Kevin Garnett (5)

Micheal Finley (4) was taken 21st.

1996 - (3.8) - Kobe Bryant

1 - Allen Iverson (5)
2 - Marcus Camby (3)
3 - Shareef Addur-Raheem (3)
4 - Stephen Marbury (4)
5 - Ray Allen (4)

Kobe (5) went #13, Steve Nash (5) went #15, Jermaine O'Neal (4) went #17

1997 - (3.0) - Tim Duncan

1 - Tim Duncan (5)
2 - Keith Van Horn (3)
3 - Chauncy Billups (4)
4 - Antonio Daniels (2)
5 - Tony Battie (1)

Tracy McGrady (4) went 9th.

1998 - (2.6) - Dirk Nowitzki

1 - Mike Olowokandi (1)
2 - Mike Bibby (3)
3 - Raef LaFrentz (2)
4 - Antawn Jamison (3)
5 - Vince Carter (4)

Dirk Nowitzki (5) went 9th, Paul Pierce (4) went 10th


1999 - (3.0) - Manu Ginobli

1 - Elton Brand (4)
2 - Steve Francis (3)
3 - Baron Davis (4)
4 - Lamar Odom (3)
5 - Jonathan Bender (1)

Shawn Marion (4) went 9th, Ron Artest (4) went 16th, Manu Ginobli (4) went 57th.

2000 - (1.4) OUCH! - Micheal Redd

1 - Kenyon Martin (3)
2 - Stromile Swift (1)
3 - Darius Miles (1)
4 - Marcus Fizer (1)
5 - Mike Miller (2)

Mike Redd (4) taken 43rd.

2001 - (2.8) - Pau Gasol?

1 - Kwame Brown (1)
2 - Tyson Chandler (3)
3 - Pau Gasol (4)
4 - Eddie Curry (3)
5 - Jason Richardson (3)

Joe Johnson (4) went 10th, Richard Jefferson (4) went 13th, Tony Parker (4) went 28th, Gilbert Arenas (4) went 31st. (This was a deep draft, I'm leaving out the 3's, but I counted 8 more solid NBA starters in this draft.)

2002 - (2.2) - Amare Stoudemire

1 - Yao Ming (4)
2 - Jay Williams (1)
3 - Mike Dunleavy (2)
4 - Drew Gooden (3)
5 - Nikoloz Tskitshvilli (1)

Amare Stoudemire (5) went 9th, Carlos Boozer (4) went 35th

2003 - (4.0) - LeBron James

1 - LeBron James (5)
2 - Darko Milicic (2)
3 - Carmelo Anthony (4)
4 - Chrish Bosh (4)
5 - Dwayne Wade (5)

This draft was also deep with another 8 solid 3's and a couple of guys who could end up being 4's when it is all said and done - Josh Howard and David West.

*At this point it is harder to grade players and the final number is half performance, half speculation on my part.

2004 - (3.8) - Dwight Howard

1 - Dwight Howard (5)
2 - Emeka Okafor (3)
3 - Ben Gordon (3)
4 - Shaun Livingston (3)
5 - Devin Harris (4)

Andrew Igoudala (4) went 9th, Al Jefferson (4) went 15th

2005 - (3.8) - Chris Paul

1 - Andrew Bogut (3)
2 - Marvin Williams (2)
3 - Deron Williams (5)
4 - Chris Paul (5)
5 - Raymond Felton (3)

Andrew Bynum (4) went 10th, Monta Ellis (4) went 40th


2006 - (2.4) - Brandon Roy

1 - Andrea Bargnani (2)
2 - LaMarcus Aldridge (4)
3 - Adam Morrison (2)
4 - Tyrus Thomas (2)
5 - Sheldon Williams (2)

Brandon Roy (4) went 6th, Rudy Gay (4) went 8th

2007 - (4.0) - Kevin Durant

1 - Greg Oden (4?)
2 - Kevin Durant (5)
3 - Al Horford (4)
4 - Mike Conley (4?)
5 - Jeff Green (3)

A bunch of this year's rookies look promising, but I'm hard pressed to grade anyone a 4 or better - Oden and Conley are enough of a reach. This group ties for the highest mark but also has the most volatile rating. Oden and Conley could be 5's, or they could be 2's.


Now let's look at the average score for each draft position and the hit (3-5) to miss (1-2) scores, and the number of big hits (4's and 5's), and the Best player taken at that position

1st Pick: 3.38 (9-4) Big hits - 7 - LeBron James
2nd Pick: 2.77 (9-4) Big hits - 2 - Kevin Durant
3rd Pick: 3.15 (9-4) Big hits - 6 - Deron Williams
4th Pick: 3.15 (10-3) Big hits - 5 - Chris Paul
5th Pick: 2.92 (8-5) Big hits - 5 - Kevin Garnett

What this tells me is the 1st pick is the best one to have, and the second pick is cursed. In fact oustide of Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge - both of whom could be classified as question marks - there was nothing at the 2 for 11 years! Lucky for the T-Woles, the 3rd pick is the 2nd best one to have. Also surprising to me is the equal hit to miss ratio at all 5 spots - roughly two to one.