Republican Dirty Tricks

Republicans Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale teamed up to deal a decisive blow for the vast right wing conspiracy last night by swapping draft picks with the Memphis Grizzlies and thus ending the Gay-Love era before it could really start. This victory for family values means that Memphis merchandise sales will plummet as every equal sign and rainbow will not be plastered over with a Grizzly logo. A sad day for egalitarian love and bumper sticker makers everywhere.

Feeling Out the Second Round

Right now the Bulls are on the clock, but in a few hours the Wolves will have two early second round picks - the 1st and the 4th of the Second Round. Here are some players that might be available...

C Roy Hibbert - His stock value has rebounded, but not to the lofty levels he was at last year. Had he skipped his senior season Hibbert would have been taken 7th by Minny or 10th by Sacremento. He'll likely go 12-20 and the Wolves will have to trade both 2nd round picks to move up and grab him if he's not gone to Sacramento at 12.

SG Chris Douglas-Roberts - He may slip to the second round, but I could see him going late teens to Washington. I find it unbelievable that Boston would let him slip out of the 1st round as he is the ideal replacement for Ray Allen. But if he does, the Wolves should pounce. Glut of SG be damned, this one can score AND play defense.

PF Serge Ibaka - He's a virtual lock for the second round after his agent said he will be playing in Europe next year, but he's a first round talent and Seattle at 32 won't let him slide. He's a real talent but does need time to fill out and refine his skills, so a few years in Europe will be good.

PF Joey Dorsey - Will probably be available with either pick, undersized, but has the reach and the muscle to play down low. Not an offensive player, but may be the next coming of Ben Wallace (the good afro version, not the crappy dreadlocked one).

C DeVon Hardin - Has legitimate size and athleticism (unlike Richards) and a poor offensive game. But no problem, AlJeff can score and this guy can play D and rebound while allowing AlJeff to be the 4.

SF Bill Walker - may not fall past Detroit, but if he has kicked his injuries he could be the answer at the 3, or the next version of Gerald Green. At least he won't go 15th.

C Nathan Jawaii - The Aussie will stay down under for a few years developping his game, but will be a beast when he enters the league.

SF Nic Batum - Could go as high as 13 to Portland, or could drop like a rock based on his heart condition and low production levels. Might be something after a few years in Europe.

If the Wolves want help now - CDR, Dorsey and Hardin are the choices. If sheer talent is the priority then go with Ibaka, CDR and Walker.

Final Pre-Draft Thoughts -UPDATED ALREADY!

*This year's draft is up in the air. It starts at the top where Chicago will likely take Rose, but that's not 100%. And then there is the drama that is Miami, the second pick, Beasley and Mayo. Here's hoping the Wolves exit the theater with Beasley, but who knows!

*So far three draft picks have changed hands. The #27 was sold by New Orleans to Portland. Charlotte traded a future "protected" pick (not sure how protected) to Denver for this year's #20, and Indiana acquired pick #17 from Toronto in the Ford/O'Neal trade. So essentially my mock is dead and believe there will be at least two more deals before the day is done.

*Deal #1 revolves around Portland. Fact is they have too many quality players on the roster (Martel, Outlaw), coming to the Roster (Rudy Fernandez and Oden), too many draft picks (13, 27, 33, 36, 55), are soft at SF, and weak at PG (Blake, Jack, Rodriquez). They are also flush with cash. I could see them using cash, the picks, and one of their many players to grab Memphis' pick at #5 - and grabbing Russell Westbrook to be the future PG. I could also see a deal with the Wolves that centers around Outlaw, and as many as 4 of their picks for the #3. Gallinari is a potential target, as is an established PG or SF.

*Deal #2 revolves around the Miami Heat. Can they trade the #2 pick and get the goods they want? Apparently, the #5, PG Kyle Lowry and SG Mike Miller aren't enough to move. Of course at 5, they could lose out on Mayo and Bayless. Miami is holding out for PG Mike Conley, who the Griz won't move. If I was Riley, and liked both Mayo and Bayless - I'd make the trade for Lowry et al. You get the point you need, and nice scorer in Miller, and one of your boys (Bayless) will drop to 5, but even better if you take a real big man like Love or Lopez and bench Blount. Here is my hunch, Riley is smitten with Mayo and will take him no matter what. Bayless is a smokescreen to make others think Miami has other options they like - but they don't.

If this is the case, MN is doing the right thing by sticking with Mayo at 3 and/or being very open to trades from the Knicks or Clips who badly want Mayo. This effectively kills any chance Seattle or Memphis have of jumping the Wolves for Beasley unless they give away a blue chip player. More and more I believe MN will stick it to Miami and force them to draft Mayo at 2 or they will make a nominal face saving trade - such as giving up Houston's second round pick in next year's draft (received in the Green/Snyder trade) to swap places.

*Deal #3 involves the Wolves. First off, they are doing the right thing by not trading before the first two picks - if Beasley is at 3 you take him unless you are bowled over with picks and players (Memphis gives up Conley and the 5 or Portland gives up Oden or Roy type of offer). But if Miami does take Beasley at 2, or trades to someone who does - the Wolves should trade down. The Knicks at 6 are at a nice spot, but have little other than future picks to offer - not a great partner. I like the Clippers offer of the #7, the top-10 protected Wolves pick owed the Clips from the Jaric trade, and a top-10 protected pick from the Clips next year. That would be a nice haul and the Wolves could choose from Westbrook, Love, Alexander, or Lopez. All of which are deals or make sense at 7, but not at 3.

*Another nice idea I heard was a three way with Golden State and Milwaukee. Milwaukee would land the 3, Golden State would get Jianlian, and MN walks away with the #8, the #14, and Brandon Wright (might also have to give up one or both second round picks). This deal is better than the Clips offer, but more difficult to pull off.

*The last big idea out there is the Wolves going for broke and trading Al Jefferson to the Bulls for the #1 pick. I love this idea! AlJeff is good at two things, scoring and rebounding. And because he's good at two things instead of just one, he's the best player on the Wolves, but he's not the kind of guy you can build around. The Wolves desperately need guys that are good at two or three things - such as defense, passing, scoring and rebounding. Beasley and Rose are those kind of players, and you could get both for Al Jeff and giving Miami their protected 1st rounder from the Blount trade back. But this won't happen, too bad.

*I predict an exciting night for the Wolves. They will either walk away with Beasley or a boatload of talent from trading the #3 pick. Either way, this team will be all the more exciting to follow tomorrow morning.
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SHEESH! I didn't have this thing out 15 minutes before two of my scenarios blew up!

*First, the Clippers and Sonics are swapping #4 and #7 with the Sonics getting a protected pick for next year. But ESPN reports that the deal is off if the Wolves pick Mayo at #3 - which probably won't happen! So Seattle took the initiative away from the Wolves by locking up a contingent deal with the Clips. This is a black mark against McHale.

*The next big trade is New Jersey Sending Richard Jefferson to the Bucks for Yi and Simmons. No picks exchanged, but it blows away my three way with Golden State possibility. I love the Deal for the Bucks. Simmons was overrated and expensive while Yi won't amount to anything. The Bucks keep their 8th pick, probably too late to get Westbrook to be the PG, but they now have the luxory of taking the best player available - my guess is Bayless. Their starting 5 is set and impressive -
PG Mo Williams - 17.2 PPG 6.3 Assts
SG Michael Redd - 22.7 PPG 4.3 RBD, 3.4 Assts
SF Richard Jefferson - 22.6 PPG, 4.2 RBD, 3.1 Assts
PF Charlie Villenuva - 11.7 PPG, 6.1 RBD
C Andrew Bogut - 14.3 PPG, 9.8 RBD

They could take Bayless, have him replace Redd, and try trading Redd... easier said than done with his contract.

I don't know if this team can mesh as it will require Mo Williams to pass more and shoot less - and I have no idea about the defensive toughness of this group - but Skiles will certainly instill some. But I like this team much better with Jefferson than with Yi. Other than dumping about $10million, I don't get this deal for NJ - unless it is a "get young pieces now so when we move to Brooklyn and sign LeBron he'll have decent support in Devin Harris and Yi". This deal might make sense in NJ 3 years from now. But in the mean time NJ goes from playoff contender to officially rebuilding and MKE becomes a contender immediately.

Updated NBA Mock Draft

My 14th and 20th pick in the draft decided to go back to school, so here is the updated version:

1 - Chicago: PG Derrick Rose
It would make sense to take Beasley, but I get the feeling they lost faith in Hinrich. Look for a Hinrich/Gooden trade to Inidana for Jermaine O'Neal and his awful contract. I could also see the Bulls trading Hinrich or Gordon to the Clips for the 7th pick and a bad contract (Cutino Mobley).

2 - Miami: SG OJ Mayo
I believe the hype. I think Riley is nuts, but he's going to take OJ over Beasley. I for one liked the Marion/Beasley/Wade trio with Boozer replacing Marion next year. Add a pass first point guard and this team is on. Instead you'll have two scorers in the backcourt and a lousy front court. This would be greatest NCAA tournament team ever.

3 - Minnesota: F Mike Beasley
The recent measurements had him undersized for a 4, but that's okay when Al Jefferson is your 4. Essentially Minnesota gets Carmelo Anthony without the tats. I'll take it! If OJ is available here as sanity demands but Riley rejects - take Mayo and trade Foye (trade Foye anyway, but that's another post).

4 - Seattle: PG Jerryd Bayless
Everyone has Bayless here, but I don't believe it. Yes the Sonics need a PG, but I don't believe that the Sonics believe in Bayless. I predict trade for a decent PG or a C.

5 - Memphis: PF Anthony Randolph
ESPN claims they like Love, but I see them going more athletic to keep up with Conley and Gay. They also have Marc Gasol coming over, so this team could be set in a year or two once they gel.

6 - New York: PG Russel Westbrook
But they really want Bayless. I could see Seattle making the swap and then taking Brook Lopez here.

7 - LA Clips: SG Erik Gordon
I can also see the Clips trading for veteran help or taking SF Galinari to replace Maggete.

8 - Milwaukee: SF Joe Alexander
I had the Italian here, but they wise up and take Alexander. Might be a reach, but this works better for the Bucks.

9 - Charlotte: C Kevin Love
Because he's better than Brook Lopez.

10 - New Jersey: C Brooke Lopez
The Nets beg to differ.

11 - Indiana: PG DJ Augustine
I previously had DeAndre Jordan here, but it seems that he's finally been exposed.

12 - Sacramento: SF Danilo Galinari
No PG's to choose from and Galinari is a value at 12.

13 - Portland: SG Nic Batum
They can leave the 6'8" Frenchy in France and roll with their loaded roster.

14 - Golden State: PF Darrel Arthur
They lost out on Chase dropping out of the draft, but they get an awesome talent in Arther who will be huge down the road.

15 - Phoenix: SF Brandon Rush
He's ready to play now, but they'll probably trade this pick.

16 - Philadelphia: C Mareese Speights
He's big and Philly needs big - but might go back to school.

17 - Toronto: SF Donte Green
If your like me and don't believe in Andrea, this is a good pick.

18 - Washington: C Robin Lopez
I was oringinally thinking hometown fav Hibbert, but he can't run with the Wiz.

19 - Cleveland: C Kosta Koufos
He's from Ohio.

20 - Denver: C DeAndre Jordan
Not a bad risk pick to eventually replace Camby.

21 - New Jersey: C Roy Hibbert
They need bigs... now they have one.

22 - Orlando: PF JJ Hickson
Allows Orlando to play big, but they still need a decent PG.

23 - Utah: SG Bill Walker
Could also play the 3 when Boozer walks.

24 - Seattle: PF Serge Ibaka
Everyone thinks they'll take a big foreigner and stash him. I agree.

25 - Houston: C Javale McGee
Can Mutumbo go another year? Can Yao get through a whole season?

26 - San Antonio: PF Alexis Ajinca
Could actually become a player in the future, but wouldn't they rather have Ryan Gomes?

27 - New Orleans: SG Chris Douglas Roberts
A nice wing man to replace Mo Pete.

28 - Memphis: C Nathan Jawai
The Aussie Center adds much needed depth to the front court in a few years.

29 - Detroit: PF Jason Thompson
Small school, good defender, and Ben Wallace is going away soon.

30 - Boston: PG Mario Chalmers
Because Sam Cassel has to go.

2nd Round - 4 picks only

31 - Minnesota: PF Joey Dorsey
Small, but a beast in the blocks. Pairs up nicely with AlJeff.

32 - Seattle: PG George Hill
He's from a small school but has been burning up the workouts. Provides a nice backup to Bayless or option to move Bayless to SG.

33 - Portland: C Omer Asik
All about the secret stash - can be left overseas to develop.

34 - Minnesota: C Devon Hardin
A defensive specialist with freakish size and a 4.0 student...

Blowing it Up! T-Wolves Style

Watching the NBA Playoffs has been illuminating. They have taught me that the Wolves are no where near competing at that level. The Wolves are lacking:

- A player you can trust at both ends of the court.

- Defense of any sort.

- A guy with the court vision and unselfishness to make others better.

The Wolves are all one-dimensional, selfish, and don't play D. The only legit big man (AlJeff) has acknowledged his poor defense, and outside of Jaric (who should never play), no one plays perimeter D. Brewer offers some hope since he was a tenacious NCAA defender, but his lack of minutes, disorientation, and awful shot kept him on the bench and unproven (does the kid lack the mental toughness to play or is this a case of awful coaching?).

Regarding court vision, this usually comes from the point guard or the best player. KG and Kobe are two such non-PG's who have the vision and ability to get their teammates easy shots. AlJeff is the best player, but dishing and creating for others are not part of his game. Sebastion Telfair was good enough to displace Marko Jaric, but Telfair is still widely considered one of the worst point guards in the league. Foye didn't get enough reps at the point due to injury, and in some cases I'd be willing to role with his development. However, I think he's a shoot first guy and evolving into a creator will be a very tall order.

So blow it up! Blow it all up!

#1 Announce to the world that you believe there are three quality players in this draft - Beasley, Mayo and Rose - and that you will be taking who ever is left at 3. This will stop Miami from monkeying around and increase the odds of landing Beasley. If Miami wants Mayo, they have to take him at 2.

#2 Offer a trade of Randy Foye and Antoine Walker to the Clippers for the 7th Pick, the Wolves top-10 protected pick, Cutino Mobley (bad contract) and Dan Dickau (needed $700k to make it work). The Clips make this trade to get a scoring 2 to replace Maggette (Thornton grabs the 3 spot), also Foye is a combo guard who can play the point backing up an ailing Shaun Livingston, and they dump their bad Mobley contract for Walker's expiring contract (who might actually provide Mobley like production at the 3 if they make a playoff push).
Potential Spoiler: Clips sign Gilbert Arenas or Knicks take Westbrook.

The Wolves do this to get back their at-risk draft pick and pair Mobley with Hudson and Madsen creating $18M of relief after the 09/10 season. The main reason they make this trade is to grab UCLA PG Russel Westbrook - a highly athletic, pass first, intense defender. Westbrook immediately upgrades the perimeter defense, give the Wolves the option to run, and has shown the ability to learn and grow into the position. Yes, he'll need time to develop, but that only helps the Wolves get good draft picks until the team is ready to compete in 2010.

#3 Trade the 1st and 4th second round picks to Phoenix for the 15th pick. Phoenix is already $12M above the salary cap before adding a mandatory 1st round contract. They could use the two early second rounders to get players overseas who won't need to be paid and can develop for the post Nash/Shaq era. Maybe Phoenix can get someone at 15 to help next year, but I doubt it. Brandon Rush would be the best bet, but how does he add depth to a team with Barbosa, Hill, Bell and Diaw at those positions?

How the Wolves use this pick depends on who they get at 3. If as expected they get Mayo, they take SF Bill Walker (unless Joe Alexander or Galinari fall this far) to be the offensive counterpart to Brewer at the 3. Walker becomes the scoring catalyst 6th man. If the Wolves get Beasley, they take Chris Douglas-Roberts. The sweet shooting, intense defending shooting guard (think Rip Hamilton) gives the Wolves the option of playing small with Beasley at the 4 or being the 6th man behind Brewer.

#4 Trade Ryan Gomes to San Antonio for the 26th pick. San Antonio does this because they get a quality guy to tag team with an aging Bowen to help right now.

#5 Trade Rashad McCants to New Orleans for the 27th pick. NO gets a SG that can actually score and is cheaper and better than Mo Pete or Pargo. Rashad is also ready to contribute now.

#6 Option A - trade both new picks to Washington for the 18th pick and take C Robin Lopez. Lopez is the defense first big man who matches nicely with Al. Robin is used to accommodating
the scoring big and allows AlJeff the easier defensive assignment.

Option B - Not everyone believes Lopez is a legit NBA defender, so instead keep #26 and #27 and use one on PF Joey Dorsey - the defensive and rebounding machine in the mold of Ben Wallace, and the other pick on a guy who has fallen too far (many possibilities, but CDR, Hibbert, Walker, Nic Batum, Brandon Rush or JJ Hickson could fall down to here.) Here the Wolves grab a gritty guy in Dorsey and some value while trusting in 2009 draft position to grab BJ Mullen or Hasheem Thabeet as true centers.

New Look Wolves - #3 Pick is OJ Mayo - (Most likely scenario)

Depth Chart -
PG - Russel Westbrook (Sebastion Telfair)
SG - OJ Mayo (Cutino Mobley)
SF - Corey Brewer (Bill Walker)
OPTION A
PF - Al Jefferson (Craig Smith)
C - Robin Lopez (Chris Richard)
OPTION B
PF - Joey Dorsey (JJ Hickson?)
C - Al Jefferson (Chris Richard)

Scrubs: Jaric, Buckner, Madsen, Dickau, (Smith)

Look at the front court. This could be the meanest perimeter defense in the league - yes, even as good as Detroit's. Westbrook and Brewer already have defensive reps, but what people forget is that Mayo shut down Bayless (8pts, 3 asts, 6 turn overs/ 10 pts, 2 asts, 3 to's) and Rose (9pts, 4 asts, 5 to's) head to head. He can cover and stop anyone. The backcourt is also much better with AlJeff taking the easy assignment and Lopez or Dorsey covering the scoring threat.

Yes, only AlJeff and Mayo can really score - but with Walker off the bench, Brewer and Westbrook improving their shots, and early draft picks in 2009 and 2010 - I like the potential. Start with D, then work on the jump shots.

AlJeff makes this option difficult, but this team could run. You could do the SSOL (seven seconds or less) offense with lock down D. At least the team would be exciting while they play brutal defense and tire out their opponents.

New Look Wolves - #3 Pick is Beasley

You could go big or small

Big lineup:

PG - Russel Westbrook 6'4"
SG - Corey Brewer 6'8"
SF - Mike Beasley 6'8"
PF - Al Jefferson 6'10"
C - Robin Lopez 7'0"
6th man - CDR 6'6"

Small lineup:
PG - Russel Westbrook 6'4"
SG - Chris Douglas-Roberts 6'6"
SF - Corey Brewer 6'8"
PF - Mike Beasley 6'8"
C - Al Jefferson 6'10"
6th man - Lopez or Dorsey

The advantage here is you have three legitimate scores in AlJeff, Beasley and CDR, and they all have distinct scoring styles - in the low blocks, from anywhere, and a sweet shot. This team with Westbrook and Brewer developing and Beasley being convinced to be a solid defender, could be the starting lineup for years to come.

NBA Mock Draft 2

There will be at least one more mock since underclassmen who haven't hired an agent can back out by Tuesday. I'm going with a zero trade rule to do this mock, but I will make note where a team is reaching or mismatched with their pick - and thus likely to trade.

1 - Chicago: PG Derrick Rose
It would make sense to take Beasley, but I get the feeling they lost faith in Hinrich. Look for a Hinrich/Gooden trade to Inidana for Jermaine O'Neal and his awful contract. I could also see the Bulls trading Hinrich or Gordon to the Clips for the 7th pick and a bad contract (Cutino Mobley).

2 - Miami: SG OJ Mayo
I believe the hype. I think Riley is nuts, but he's going to take OJ over Beasley. I for one liked the Marion/Beasley/Wade trio with Boozer replacing Marion next year. Add a pass first point guard and this team is on. Instead you'll have two scorers in the backcourt and a lousy front court. This would be greatest NCAA tournament team ever.

3 - Minnesota: F Mike Beasley
The recent measurements had him undersized for a 4, but that's okay when Al Jefferson is your 4. Essentially Minnesota gets Carmelo Anthony without the tats. I'll take it! If OJ is available here as sanity demands but Riley rejects - take Mayo and trade Foye (trade Foye anyway, but that's another post).

4 - Seattle: PG Jerryd Bayless
Everyone has Bayless here, but I don't believe it. Yes the Sonics need a PG, but I don't believe that the Sonics believe in Bayless. I predict trade for a decent PG or a C.

5 - Memphis: PF Anthony Randolph
ESPN claims they like Love, but I see them going more athletic to keep up with Conley and Gay. They also have Marc Gasol coming over, so this team could be set in a year or two once they gel.

6 - New York: PG Russel Westbrook
But they really want Bayless. I could see Seattle making the swap and then taking Brook Lopez here.

7 - LA Clips: SG Erik Gordon
I can also see the Clips trading for veteran help or taking SF Galinari to replace Maggete.

8 - Milwaukee: SF Danilo Galinari
Ugh, the thought of two skinny foreigners manning the 3 is gross, and probably not successful. This team needs to make lots of trades.

9 - Charlotte: C Kevin Love
Because he's better than Brook Lopez.

10 - New Jersey: C Brooke Lopez
The Nets beg to differ.

11 - Indiana: C DeAndre Jordan
They will trade O'Neal and need a center. If they don't land Hinrich they'll consider Augustine.

12 - Sacramento: PG DJ Augustine
Otherwise they have to roll with Beno-thanks.

13 - Portland: SG Nic Batum
They can leave the 6'8" Frenchy in France and roll with their loaded roster.

14 - Golden State: SG Chase Budinger
With Baron getting old and making noise, they can move Monta to PG and role with Chase.

15 - Phoenix: PF Darrel Arthur
The Suns get real value in a PF who slipped this far and will pair up very well with Amare post-Shaq... too bad they'll trade this pick.

16 - Philadelphia: C Mareese Speights
He's big and Philly needs big - but might go back to school.

17 - Toronto: SF Joe Alexander
Bargnani isn't getting it done at the 3, Alexander provides an option and a bargain at this point.

18 - Washington: C Robin Lopez
I was oringinally thinking hometown fav Hibbert, but he can't run with the Wiz.

19 - Cleveland: SF Donte Green
Very athletic complement to LeBron.

20 - Denver: PG Ty Lawson
If he comes out...

21 - New Jersey: C Roy Hibbert
They need bigs... not they have two legit 7 footers.

22 - Orlando: PF JJ Hickson
Allows Orlando to play big, but they still need a decent PG.

23 - Utah: SG Bill Walker
Could also play the 3 when Boozer walks.

24 - Seattle: C Kosta Koufos
They need a Center, but probably won't get the answer here.

25 - Houston: C Javale McGee
Can Mutumbo go another year? Can Yao get through a whole season?

26 - San Antonio: C Alexis Ajinca
Could actually become a player in the future, but wouldn't they rather have Ryan Gomes?

27 - New Orleans: SG/SF Brandon Rush
Pairs nicely with Jayhawk Julian Wright, but maybe they'd rather have McCants?

28 - Memphis: SG Chris Douglas-Roberts
How did he fall this far? Expect someone to move up to around 20 to get him.

29 - Detroit: PF Jason Thompson
Small school, good defender, and Ben Wallace is going away soon.

30 - Boston: PG Mario Chalmers
Because Sam Cassel has to go.

2nd Round - 4 picks only

31 - Minnesota: PF Joey Dorsey
Small, but a beast in the blocks. Pairs up nicely with AlJeff.

32 - Seattle: PF Serge Ibaka
A guy who can be stashed, and he's big.

33 - Portland: PF Nathan Jawai
All about the secret stash - can be left overseas to develop.

34 - Minnesota: C Omer Asik
This is not a favorite of mine, just makes the most sense with what's left.