Going South by Northwest

Northwest Airlines has an iron grip on air travel out of Minnesota. Unless you're flying to Chicago, for $99 from the other major airlines or the few discount airlines that have a smattering of gates in Minneapolis, you will pay a premium. Back in 2001 when I was flying out to the inauguration with some friends, we found that a NWA flight out of Milwaukee, that connected through Minneapolis, to DC cost $200. For my friends to catch the same connecting flight in Minneapolis cost them $400. My friends drove to Milwaukee, except for the guy who works for Northwest airlines and flew for free.

Northwest is undergoing a very bitter strike by the mechanics union - AMFA. The Minnesota Daily provides this knee jerk article on how we should support the union against the evil corporation. The Star Tribune, via the New York Times, reports that NWA and Delta will be filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy this week. Northwest, along with Delta, United, and US Air are all about to join Eastern Airlines on the trash heap of history. This is a terrible thing for anyone who works for the airline or relies upon them for a pension. Check that last statement, it is a terrible thing for the taxpayers who will have to pay pensions instead of Northwest Airlines. For air travelers based in the twin cities, this is a glorious day. While direct flights with no connections will diminish somewhat, the twin cities will become a non-hub such as the Raleigh-Durham area where dozens of major and discount airlines engage in epic fare wars.

But it will be awhile. These airlines are losing money hand over fist every day. However, United Airlines has found the business quite profitable so long as they stay in the cozy protection of Chapter 11. So long as the airlines don't have to repay their billions in loans, the old hub and spoke airlines work! This will work for the short term, but eventually the patience of creditors, judges and aging aircraft will take their toll.

Northwest is also crushing the mechanics union and reaping millions of savings. NWA walked away from the table again this weekend and today began the process of permanently replacing striking workers. I believe AMFA has 4400 employee members, NWA has 1500 replacement workers on the job, and plans to operate at 2200 with or without the union. If NWA can convince a fifth of the AMFA members to come back to work without the union, AMFA is finished.

One might think that the AFL-CIO and every other union at the airline, such as the pilots and stewardesses, would show some good old solidarity and join the mechanics. But they won't, thanks to AMFA's tactics in the late 90's. Back then, the mechanics were represented by IAM, which was the official AFL-CIO union for airline mechanics. AMFA came charging into NWA during a contract dispute and promised a more militant approach. The rank and file threw out the IAM (and AFL-CIO affiliates) and jumped to AMFA. This poaching of their union did not sit well with the AFL-CIO types, and now they distinctly do not stand with AMFA. In fact, the AFL-CIO will let NWA liquidate the mechanics union just to eliminate AMFA. I suppose the AFL-CIO is confident they can reorganize after the failed strike, but it will be on NWA's terms - such as half as many jobs and reduced pay.

Even with the savings at the expense of mechanics, NWA will not survive. The problem isn't simply one of reducing costs. The problem is structural. If NWA wasn't burdened with the existing debt, a structural change would be possible. As it stands, the best thing for the airline industry and Minnesota air traveler is for NWA to be liquidated and its assets cheaply assumed and re-organized by someone else.

Destroy the Hurricane!

If we have learned one thing from Hurricane Katrina, it is that the only useful arm of the government is the military. It took the Army's involvement and leadership to offset the bumbling incompetence of the Mayor of New Orleans and the weak kneed indecisiveness of Louisiana's Governor. A friend of mine once said that Republicans are genetically pre-disposed towards leadership. After witnessing last weeks handling of Katrina vs. Rudy and Pataki in NY - I'm moving that theory up to global warming plausibility.

Seeing as how the military is all we've got to rely on, it's time to put Bush's policy of pre-emption to work. We must destroy the hurricane before it gets us!

We could bomb the sucker! But it turns out that hurricanes thrive on heat. Any bomb would just add to it, potentially making it stronger. You'd also need lots of bombs to have any hope of disrupting the eyewall. Use a nuke? Well, a medium sized hurricane puts off the same amount of heat energy as 400 hydrogen bombs. We might just end up with a radioactive super heated category 7 hurricane. Let's hold off on this solution.

Dry ice, and lots of it! Again, you'd need massive amounts of dry ice to make a dent. You could put the ice in the ocean, or an ice berg, but you'd have to be able to perfectly track the hurricane. And again, you'd need enough ice to cool off 400 hydrogen bombs. My reading suggested this solution is like trying to warm up Minneapolis in January by opening your window. Since I don't pay the natural gas bill, I shall implement this experiment this winter and report in February.

There was a time when the government took this problem seriously. It was called project STORMFURY, which must be the greatest name ever for a government project. The idea was to seed the eyewall with silver iodide that would create ice crystals, the snow would fall, clouds would grow larger, and the eye wall would weaken and a second, wider eyewall would form. A wider eyewall is weaker than a tight eyewall for the same reason an ice skater spins faster when she pulls in her arms.

In 1961 Hurricane Esther's growth was stopped and appeared to weaken after seeding. In 1963 Hurricane Buelah was seeded to postive results. In 1969 Hurricane Debbie was seeded and lost windspeed from 115MPH to 80MPH. Success!

However some scientists poo-poohed the results saying that other, larger natural forces had more impact than the seeding. There was also some international concern since a few of these seeded hurricanes ended up hitting Cuba instead of their projected Florida landfalls. I say it sucks to be Cuba, but the State Department disagreed and project STORMFURY was shut down in the early 70's and was considered scientifically inconclusive.

Now this fella has some nifty ideas that the military already has the means. If you can get past the swastika super imposed on the hurricane satelite view and his references to the "fascist Bush family" using the state of Florida as a hurricane weapons testing platform (which of course helps keep poor people from voting and FEMA dollars flowing to buy elections), he believes that the military is using earth frequency waves to control the weather, emotions, and conduct mind control - which is also useful in winning elections. If this guy is right, the military has the means to create happy thoughts, steer hurricanes away, and vote Republican. Let's cross our fingers.

Talk Talk

Our local bastion of conservative radio, AM1500 KSTP, is getting gutted at the end of the year with the establishment of FM100.3 KTLK which will replace a smooth jazz station. KTLK will take Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity away from KSTP and KSTP is going to move towards a local talk angle.

Mitch Berg has a very thorough analysis here.

Below is my take on it in an email to Franklin:

This also falls into my statement the other day that I think Reusse (Soucheray's sports sidekick) is quickly degenerating into WCCO-land(old people AM). He's not nearly as smart or quick as he was in the flashback skits they run. His value to the show now rests on his buffoonery brought on by age. Reusse will take up the mantle of Sid Hartman(the OLD guy). Sadly, Joe is not that far behind. He's got 10 years left in him tops. Joe also needs at least one winner around him, and Lewis is the guy. Limbaugh, Soucheray and Lewis were the golden age for KSTP.

I'd like to see Dave Thompson get his chance, but I don't see him holding with just Joe. If KSTP can go noon to 8 with Thompson, Soucheray and Lewis - you have a real shot. Otherwise I think KSTP may just shrivel up and die.

The biggest loser in all of this is the Patriot who will be a distant 3rd to premiere national talent at KTLK and local talk at KSTP. WCCO will continue to die.

National stars that should be brought on board - Dave Ramsey and Opie & Anthony. They are both ratings gold waiting to explode.


Stay tuned...